Zero2Cool
13 years ago

I don't acnowledge similar issues with other players because I don't have information on the other players (catch rate % does not = drop rate).

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



So, with this comment, I'm taking it you focus on the negative, instead of the positive? That makes sense because when Jennings has a big drop the Packers lost the game and when James Jones has a drop the Packer still win. 😛
UserPostedImage
Stevetarded
13 years ago

So, with this comment, I'm taking it you focus on the negative, instead of the positive? That makes sense because when Jennings has a big drop the Packers lost the game and when James Jones has a drop the Packer still win. :P

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 




No, I focus on the facts I have to work with. If I see something that says Jordy Nelson has a problem with drops every year I will conclude that Jordy Nelson has a problem with dropping passes.

As far as the Jennings thing goes I've said it several times if James Jones was even near the talent/production of Jennings nobody would give a shit about a couple drops. So stop comparing the two it's stupid.
blank
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago



I don't acnowledge similar issues with other players because I don't have information on the other players (catch rate % does not = drop rate).

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



Would the drops not be included in the failed percentage.. the inverse of the catch rate?

But fair enough.. you want drop percentages to compare.

Here is a list from Pro Football Focus.. Jones isn't on the list from 2008 through 2010. BTW.. Nelson dropped 14.29% according to their numbers in 2010.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/ 

Guys on that collective list that are considered #1's that have higher drop percentages in a three year sample, since it seems to be the key stat.

37 Brandon Marshall 11.28%
39 Marques Colston NO 12.00%
41 DeSean Jackson 12.21%
42 Randy Moss 12.32%
43 Terrell Owens 12.50%
44 Dwayne Bowe 13.87%
45 Braylon Edwards 14.72%

Another question.. how is a drop determined vs the pass being non catch-able?

In the end.. I am not arguing that Jones is a #1 or should be paid like one.. but he isn't just another Joe in the sea of NFL WR.. IMO.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Stevetarded
13 years ago

Would the drops not be included in the failed percentage.. the inverse of the catch rate?

But fair enough.. you want drop percentages to compare.

Here is a list from Pro Football Focus.. Jones isn't on the list from 2008 through 2010. BTW.. Nelson dropped 14.29% according to their numbers.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/ 

Guys on that collective list that are considered #1's that have higher drop percentages, since it seems to be the key stat.

37 Brandon Marshall 11.28%
39 Marques Colston NO 12.00%
41 DeSean Jackson 12.21%
42 Randy Moss 12.32%
43 Terrell Owens 12.50%
44 Dwayne Bowe 13.87%
45 Braylon Edwards 14.72%

Another question.. how is a drop determined vs the pass being non catch-able?

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 




So Jordy is on there for 1 season. As far as I know that was his only year with the dropsies. If he struggles that badly again and doesn't produce much I won't be too high on him either.

So Jones isn't on the list... Do you not think 10.5% drop rate is still pretty high? Look at how some of those guys produce compared to their dropping of passes. If James Jones brought this team what Marshall, Colston, Jackson etc. do then I wouldn't have anything to say about him. I never fucking argued that dropping passes is the "key stat" you are making that shit up.
blank
earthquake
13 years ago
I think this whole discussion has gotten ridiculously semantical.

The point that most people seem to be making is that, Jones drops more easy-sure-td type catches than other wideouts do. Not that he drops a crazy amount more than other WRs, or that he's terrible, or any of this other stuff. Simply that he drops more catches that could result in game-changing TDs. Unless someone has a stat that disproves that, I don't really see the point in getting so analytical about it, as I feel most people would agree with this observation by simply watching packers games.

Is that an unreasonable opinion to have? I don't think so. Does it mean everyone is hating on Jones? From what I've seen, most people like the guy and would prefer to have him back, but are worried about paying him starter money with his penchant for back-breaking type drops. I personally really like Jones, but his inconsistency catching seemingly easy TDs is worrisome. I would love to see him back at a reasonable salary for a #2-3 WR.
blank
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago

So Jordy is on there for 1 season. As far as I know that was his only year with the dropsies. If he struggles that badly again and doesn't produce much I won't be too high on him either.

So Jones isn't on the list... Do you not think 10.5% drop rate is still pretty high? Look at how some of those guys produce compared to their dropping of passes. If James Jones brought this team what Marshall, Colston, Jackson etc. do then I wouldn't have anything to say about him. I never fucking argued that dropping passes is the "key stat" you are making that shit up.

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



Okay.. if it is not a key stat.. then why are you focused solely upon it and not the YPC, the TD's or any other stat?

BTW.. why are you getting pissed.. all I am doing is presenting facts that are point out my side of the argument.

I have argued that for his target percentage he has produced just fine compared to others in the same percentage. Countering your stance that he doesn't produce very well. With that, if his target percentage increases his statistics should follow. Of course he doesn't produce like #1's, he doesn't get the same target percentage.. and to be honest in this offense, should he get a larger percentage? Again part of the beauty of the offense, but based on performance vs opportunity his numbers stack up fine.

I have argued the his catch rate (for the years available) is comparable to other NFL receivers, including some #1's and 2's.

I have argued the he has a better drop rate than some receivers collecting #1 money (again I don't consider him a 1) over the course of a couple years.

Using facts mixed with my own opinion.. and trying to do it respectfully.

The crux of our conversation is that he has a problem with drops.. we both agree that he needs work in that area, but it seems that we disagree with the value of the stat vs overall player value.

Nothing I see worth dropping the f bomb a couple times over.. but maybe I am missing something.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago

I think this whole discussion has gotten ridiculously semantical.

The point that most people seem to be making is that, Jones drops more easy-sure-td type catches than other wideouts do. Not that he drops a crazy amount more than other WRs, or that he's terrible, or any of this other stuff. Simply that he drops more catches that could result in game-changing TDs. Unless someone has a stat that disproves that, I don't really see the point in getting so analytical about it, as I feel most people would agree with this observation by simply watching packers games.

Is that an unreasonable opinion to have? I don't think so. Does it mean everyone is hating on Jones? From what I've seen, most people like the guy and would prefer to have him back, but are worried about paying him starter money with his penchant for back-breaking type drops. I personally really like Jones, but his inconsistency catching seemingly easy TDs is worrisome. I would love to see him back at a reasonable salary for a #2-3 WR.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



It is not an unreasonable opinion at all it is an opinion after all.. just don't throw out a fact like a 10% drop rate without comparative numbers yet use that to devalue said player.

Additionally.. in that subjective approach... don't forget to counter with key and clutch catches they make as well.

This whole statistical debate came from a 10% drop rate for Jones with no comparative looks, all I am trying to do is paint a more accurate picture using facts available.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago
I did make a mistake.. I used an example of a drop from Jennings. That was a tactical mistake for which I apologize.


"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Stevetarded
13 years ago

Okay.. if it is not a key stat.. then why are you focused solely upon it and not the YPC, the TD's or any other stat?

BTW.. why are you getting pissed.. all I am doing is presenting facts that are point out my side of the argument.

I have argued that for his target percentage he has produced just fine compared to others in the same percentage. Countering your stance that he doesn't produce very well. With that, if his target percentage increases his statistics should follow. Of course he doesn't produce like #1's, he doesn't get the same target percentage.. and to be honest in this offense, should he get a larger percentage? Again part of the beauty of the offense, but based on performance vs opportunity his numbers stack up fine.

I have argued the his catch rate (for the years available) is comparable to other NFL receivers, including some #1's and 2's.

I have argued the he has a better drop rate than some receivers collecting #1 money (again I don't consider him a 1) over the course of a couple years.

Using facts mixed with my own opinion.. and trying to do it respectfully.

The crux of our conversation is that he has a problem with drops.. we both agree that he needs work in that area, but it seems that we disagree with the value of the stat vs overall player value.

Nothing I see worth dropping the f bomb a couple times over.. but maybe I am missing something.

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 



I'm not focused solely on his drops. My whole problem has been with you guys acting like Jones is unjustly criticized. I think it's fine for people to criticize him especially when you guys do things like compare his drop rate to Jennings and other players who are much better receivers.

I've already covered the target % thing. If he was the only other WR on the team yeah his stats would probably go up but right now his stats aren't that high because he hasn't distanced himself from anyone else on the team. If anything he lost distance to Jordy. If Jones was so worthy of being a starter and getting more targets he would. Just like Jennings did. It's not just the system keeping him from putting up numbers like a #1.
blank
Zero2Cool
13 years ago

So Jordy is on there for 1 season. As far as I know that was his only year with the dropsies. If he struggles that badly again and doesn't produce much I won't be too high on him either.

So Jones isn't on the list... Do you not think 10.5% drop rate is still pretty high? Look at how some of those guys produce compared to their dropping of passes. If James Jones brought this team what Marshall, Colston, Jackson etc. do then I wouldn't have anything to say about him. I never fucking argued that dropping passes is the "key stat" you are making that shit up.

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



So the fact that Greg Jennings big drop was in a game the Packers lost and the big drop from James Jones the Packers won .. .that fact doesn't matter? [grin1]

BTW, to be clear, I'm not saying James Jones doesn't NEED to improve, he does, no question. Anytime the ball hits a receiver in the hands and it's dropped, it bugs me. I just think kicking James Jones to the curb in favor of Donald Driver is a mistake and am just kind of surprised it seems many would rather Driver over Jones.

I think our WR are
Greg Jennings
James Jones
Donald Driver / Jordy Nelson

And depending on the first few games of the season, I might throw Jordy in 4 alone and Driver as 5.

UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (8h) : Former Packers QB Brett Favre recently announced he was diagnosed with Parkinson's.
Zero2Cool (9h) : The only QBs this season with 0 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF (minimum 30 dropbacks) Aaron Rodgers Malik Willis Justin Fields
Mucky Tundra (23-Sep) : @DavidBearmanPFN · 18h Vegas has watched Will Levis for 3 weeks and installed them as a 1-point favorite in Miami next week. Let that sink
Mucky Tundra (23-Sep) : Martha, they did play much better with Dalton yesterday
Zero2Cool (23-Sep) : Test results on Sam Darnold’s knee showed a knee bruise and no structural damage. He is not expected to miss any time.
Martha Careful (23-Sep) : Not with Dalton apparently
Mucky Tundra (23-Sep) : Not sure what to make of the NFC South so far this season (outside of the Panthers being a dumpster fire)
Mucky Tundra (22-Sep) : of course I say that and then they overturn that play that put them on the 49ers 2 yard line
Mucky Tundra (22-Sep) : *without
Mucky Tundra (22-Sep) : Even with Nacua and Kupp out, Rams looking fiesty on offense
Martha Careful (22-Sep) : Tim Boyle is playing for the Dolphins
Martha Careful (22-Sep) : I love seeing Dallas lose
Mucky Tundra (22-Sep) : The Red Rifle is on fire in Las Vegas! 3 TDs in the first half!
Mucky Tundra (22-Sep) : @mattschneidman · 2m The fire alarm is going off inside the Packers locker room here in Nashville.
Mucky Tundra (22-Sep) : Gonna need a drink after looking at my picks for the early games in Pick'em
Zero2Cool (22-Sep) : James Jones. Y’all must not know, Dr. Mackenzie🤣 he was not going to let Jordan love play today.
Zero2Cool (22-Sep) : Malik to start. Love inactive. Per report. Let's go!!
buckeyepackfan (22-Sep) : I think J-10VE will be inactive, a little twist that could be put in is run a wildcat with Wicks at qb. Have him as emergency qb if needed.
Zero2Cool (21-Sep) : I think that's how it works.
Zero2Cool (21-Sep) : I'd go 3 QB regardless this game.
Zero2Cool (21-Sep) : Clifford was elevated, not activated. He doesn't play, it doesn't count.
hardrocker950 (21-Sep) : If Clifford is active, not likely to see Jordan play this weekend
Mucky Tundra (21-Sep) : QB Sean Clifford and CB Robert Rochell elevated from the PS for the Titans game
Zero2Cool (20-Sep) : Love questionable. Morgan is out. Valentine is doubtful
Martha Careful (20-Sep) : Rodgers and Lazard off to a very strong start
Zero2Cool (19-Sep) : Josh Jacobs. Limited.
Zero2Cool (19-Sep) : Can't find anything on Jacobs :(
wpr (19-Sep) : Do you know if they gave Jacobs an extra day off? I hope so.
Zero2Cool (19-Sep) : WR Jayden Reed (calf) and G Elgton Jenkins (illness/glute) returned after sitting out Wednesday.
Zero2Cool (19-Sep) : Packers are in pads and so is Jordan Love. Second straight day of practice for QB1.
bboystyle (18-Sep) : If Love comes back, we win in a blow out
Zero2Cool (18-Sep) : Jordan Love just spoke with reporters and said he’s giving himself the week but hopeful to play Sunday against the Titans.
Zero2Cool (18-Sep) : Practicing is Jordan Love!
Zero2Cool (18-Sep) : Packers are signing WR Cornelius Johnson to the Practice Squad per sources. Johnson was a 7th round pick this year.
Zero2Cool (17-Sep) : Packers placed RB MarShawn Lloyd on injured reserve.
Zero2Cool (16-Sep) : Rams won’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua when they host the Packers in Week 5.
Mucky Tundra (16-Sep) : Or is that the Rusty Red Rifle because of his age?
Mucky Tundra (16-Sep) : The Red Rifle Returns!
Zero2Cool (16-Sep) : Panthers are benching former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and starting veteran Andy Dalton beginning this week.
Mucky Tundra (16-Sep) : bears still have slim chance here
Mucky Tundra (16-Sep) : and there's another one!
Mucky Tundra (16-Sep) : oh crap macbob has the Texans K and he keeps hitting these long FGs
Mucky Tundra (15-Sep) : Hope the Texans beat the brakes off the Bears
Zero2Cool (15-Sep) : LaFleur: “I asked Malik why he didn’t throw it on that third down and he told me Josh threw up on the ball.”
Mucky Tundra (15-Sep) : i was wondering why it was just you, me, beast and macbob by the end
Zero2Cool (15-Sep) : Yeah it was weird today for some reason
Mucky Tundra (15-Sep) : Oh my, marvin harrison jr might be as good as he was billed out to be
Mucky Tundra (15-Sep) : and none of the chats on my phone are showing up on the desktop chat
Mucky Tundra (15-Sep) : weird, i was on my phone for chat during the game but now on my desktop I look at chat and there's tons of chats i didn't see on my phone
Zero2Cool (15-Sep) : Oh yeah, for sure. That's just not fair thoguh.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 12:00 PM
Vikings
Saturday, Jan 4 @ 11:00 PM
BEARS
Recent Topics
3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Cheesey

4h / GameDay Threads / wpr

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

23h / Around The NFL / Martha Careful

23-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

23-Sep / Featured Content / Zero2Cool

23-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

23-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

23-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

22-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

21-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

18-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / earthquake

18-Sep / Random Babble / wpr

18-Sep / Around The NFL / Martha Careful

18-Sep / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.