Zero2Cool
13 years ago

I don't acnowledge similar issues with other players because I don't have information on the other players (catch rate % does not = drop rate).

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



So, with this comment, I'm taking it you focus on the negative, instead of the positive? That makes sense because when Jennings has a big drop the Packers lost the game and when James Jones has a drop the Packer still win. 😛
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Stevetarded
13 years ago

So, with this comment, I'm taking it you focus on the negative, instead of the positive? That makes sense because when Jennings has a big drop the Packers lost the game and when James Jones has a drop the Packer still win. :P

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 




No, I focus on the facts I have to work with. If I see something that says Jordy Nelson has a problem with drops every year I will conclude that Jordy Nelson has a problem with dropping passes.

As far as the Jennings thing goes I've said it several times if James Jones was even near the talent/production of Jennings nobody would give a shit about a couple drops. So stop comparing the two it's stupid.
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Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago



I don't acnowledge similar issues with other players because I don't have information on the other players (catch rate % does not = drop rate).

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



Would the drops not be included in the failed percentage.. the inverse of the catch rate?

But fair enough.. you want drop percentages to compare.

Here is a list from Pro Football Focus.. Jones isn't on the list from 2008 through 2010. BTW.. Nelson dropped 14.29% according to their numbers in 2010.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/ 

Guys on that collective list that are considered #1's that have higher drop percentages in a three year sample, since it seems to be the key stat.

37 Brandon Marshall 11.28%
39 Marques Colston NO 12.00%
41 DeSean Jackson 12.21%
42 Randy Moss 12.32%
43 Terrell Owens 12.50%
44 Dwayne Bowe 13.87%
45 Braylon Edwards 14.72%

Another question.. how is a drop determined vs the pass being non catch-able?

In the end.. I am not arguing that Jones is a #1 or should be paid like one.. but he isn't just another Joe in the sea of NFL WR.. IMO.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Stevetarded
13 years ago

Would the drops not be included in the failed percentage.. the inverse of the catch rate?

But fair enough.. you want drop percentages to compare.

Here is a list from Pro Football Focus.. Jones isn't on the list from 2008 through 2010. BTW.. Nelson dropped 14.29% according to their numbers.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/23/drop-percentage/ 

Guys on that collective list that are considered #1's that have higher drop percentages, since it seems to be the key stat.

37 Brandon Marshall 11.28%
39 Marques Colston NO 12.00%
41 DeSean Jackson 12.21%
42 Randy Moss 12.32%
43 Terrell Owens 12.50%
44 Dwayne Bowe 13.87%
45 Braylon Edwards 14.72%

Another question.. how is a drop determined vs the pass being non catch-able?

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 




So Jordy is on there for 1 season. As far as I know that was his only year with the dropsies. If he struggles that badly again and doesn't produce much I won't be too high on him either.

So Jones isn't on the list... Do you not think 10.5% drop rate is still pretty high? Look at how some of those guys produce compared to their dropping of passes. If James Jones brought this team what Marshall, Colston, Jackson etc. do then I wouldn't have anything to say about him. I never fucking argued that dropping passes is the "key stat" you are making that shit up.
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earthquake
13 years ago
I think this whole discussion has gotten ridiculously semantical.

The point that most people seem to be making is that, Jones drops more easy-sure-td type catches than other wideouts do. Not that he drops a crazy amount more than other WRs, or that he's terrible, or any of this other stuff. Simply that he drops more catches that could result in game-changing TDs. Unless someone has a stat that disproves that, I don't really see the point in getting so analytical about it, as I feel most people would agree with this observation by simply watching packers games.

Is that an unreasonable opinion to have? I don't think so. Does it mean everyone is hating on Jones? From what I've seen, most people like the guy and would prefer to have him back, but are worried about paying him starter money with his penchant for back-breaking type drops. I personally really like Jones, but his inconsistency catching seemingly easy TDs is worrisome. I would love to see him back at a reasonable salary for a #2-3 WR.
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Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago

So Jordy is on there for 1 season. As far as I know that was his only year with the dropsies. If he struggles that badly again and doesn't produce much I won't be too high on him either.

So Jones isn't on the list... Do you not think 10.5% drop rate is still pretty high? Look at how some of those guys produce compared to their dropping of passes. If James Jones brought this team what Marshall, Colston, Jackson etc. do then I wouldn't have anything to say about him. I never fucking argued that dropping passes is the "key stat" you are making that shit up.

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



Okay.. if it is not a key stat.. then why are you focused solely upon it and not the YPC, the TD's or any other stat?

BTW.. why are you getting pissed.. all I am doing is presenting facts that are point out my side of the argument.

I have argued that for his target percentage he has produced just fine compared to others in the same percentage. Countering your stance that he doesn't produce very well. With that, if his target percentage increases his statistics should follow. Of course he doesn't produce like #1's, he doesn't get the same target percentage.. and to be honest in this offense, should he get a larger percentage? Again part of the beauty of the offense, but based on performance vs opportunity his numbers stack up fine.

I have argued the his catch rate (for the years available) is comparable to other NFL receivers, including some #1's and 2's.

I have argued the he has a better drop rate than some receivers collecting #1 money (again I don't consider him a 1) over the course of a couple years.

Using facts mixed with my own opinion.. and trying to do it respectfully.

The crux of our conversation is that he has a problem with drops.. we both agree that he needs work in that area, but it seems that we disagree with the value of the stat vs overall player value.

Nothing I see worth dropping the f bomb a couple times over.. but maybe I am missing something.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago

I think this whole discussion has gotten ridiculously semantical.

The point that most people seem to be making is that, Jones drops more easy-sure-td type catches than other wideouts do. Not that he drops a crazy amount more than other WRs, or that he's terrible, or any of this other stuff. Simply that he drops more catches that could result in game-changing TDs. Unless someone has a stat that disproves that, I don't really see the point in getting so analytical about it, as I feel most people would agree with this observation by simply watching packers games.

Is that an unreasonable opinion to have? I don't think so. Does it mean everyone is hating on Jones? From what I've seen, most people like the guy and would prefer to have him back, but are worried about paying him starter money with his penchant for back-breaking type drops. I personally really like Jones, but his inconsistency catching seemingly easy TDs is worrisome. I would love to see him back at a reasonable salary for a #2-3 WR.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



It is not an unreasonable opinion at all it is an opinion after all.. just don't throw out a fact like a 10% drop rate without comparative numbers yet use that to devalue said player.

Additionally.. in that subjective approach... don't forget to counter with key and clutch catches they make as well.

This whole statistical debate came from a 10% drop rate for Jones with no comparative looks, all I am trying to do is paint a more accurate picture using facts available.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago
I did make a mistake.. I used an example of a drop from Jennings. That was a tactical mistake for which I apologize.


"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Stevetarded
13 years ago

Okay.. if it is not a key stat.. then why are you focused solely upon it and not the YPC, the TD's or any other stat?

BTW.. why are you getting pissed.. all I am doing is presenting facts that are point out my side of the argument.

I have argued that for his target percentage he has produced just fine compared to others in the same percentage. Countering your stance that he doesn't produce very well. With that, if his target percentage increases his statistics should follow. Of course he doesn't produce like #1's, he doesn't get the same target percentage.. and to be honest in this offense, should he get a larger percentage? Again part of the beauty of the offense, but based on performance vs opportunity his numbers stack up fine.

I have argued the his catch rate (for the years available) is comparable to other NFL receivers, including some #1's and 2's.

I have argued the he has a better drop rate than some receivers collecting #1 money (again I don't consider him a 1) over the course of a couple years.

Using facts mixed with my own opinion.. and trying to do it respectfully.

The crux of our conversation is that he has a problem with drops.. we both agree that he needs work in that area, but it seems that we disagree with the value of the stat vs overall player value.

Nothing I see worth dropping the f bomb a couple times over.. but maybe I am missing something.

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 



I'm not focused solely on his drops. My whole problem has been with you guys acting like Jones is unjustly criticized. I think it's fine for people to criticize him especially when you guys do things like compare his drop rate to Jennings and other players who are much better receivers.

I've already covered the target % thing. If he was the only other WR on the team yeah his stats would probably go up but right now his stats aren't that high because he hasn't distanced himself from anyone else on the team. If anything he lost distance to Jordy. If Jones was so worthy of being a starter and getting more targets he would. Just like Jennings did. It's not just the system keeping him from putting up numbers like a #1.
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Zero2Cool
13 years ago

So Jordy is on there for 1 season. As far as I know that was his only year with the dropsies. If he struggles that badly again and doesn't produce much I won't be too high on him either.

So Jones isn't on the list... Do you not think 10.5% drop rate is still pretty high? Look at how some of those guys produce compared to their dropping of passes. If James Jones brought this team what Marshall, Colston, Jackson etc. do then I wouldn't have anything to say about him. I never fucking argued that dropping passes is the "key stat" you are making that shit up.

Originally Posted by: Stevetarded 



So the fact that Greg Jennings big drop was in a game the Packers lost and the big drop from James Jones the Packers won .. .that fact doesn't matter? [grin1]

BTW, to be clear, I'm not saying James Jones doesn't NEED to improve, he does, no question. Anytime the ball hits a receiver in the hands and it's dropped, it bugs me. I just think kicking James Jones to the curb in favor of Donald Driver is a mistake and am just kind of surprised it seems many would rather Driver over Jones.

I think our WR are
Greg Jennings
James Jones
Donald Driver / Jordy Nelson

And depending on the first few games of the season, I might throw Jordy in 4 alone and Driver as 5.

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