djcubez
  • djcubez
  • Senior Member Topic Starter
14 years ago
I decided to compile margin of victory stats for 7 different teams (Steelers, Patriots, Colts and the whole NFC North) over the past 5 years because of something NonStopDrivel said. I can't remember exactly what it was though.

A Few Notes
I used margins of 0-4, 5-7 and 8+ points. In hindsight 0-3, 4-7 and 8+ may have been better but I'm not doing this all again ;)

I tried to pick teams that have had both consistency at the head coaching position and had fielded great teams in recent history. I then picked the NFC North to get a more robust sample base so we're not just comparing McCarthy to "elite" coaches.

I did not include any playoff games.


				== Steelers ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	10-4 	Tomlin		 3	 3	4	| 1	 1	2	
2009	9-7	Tomlin		 3	 1	5	| 5	 2	0
2008	12-4	Tomlin	 	 3	 2	6	| 1	 1	2	
2007	10-6	Tomlin	 	 2	 0	8	| 2	 3	1
2006	8-8	Cowher		 1	 2	5	| 1	 1	6
===============================================================================
Tomlin Total:			 8	 6	23	| 9	 7	5
Cowher Total:			 1	 2 	5 	| 2	 3 	1
Overall Total:			 9	 8	28	| 11	 10	6


				== Colts ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	8-6	Caldwell	 2	 1	5	| 4	 0	2
2009	14-2	Caldwell	 7 	 0	7	| 0	 0	2
2008	12-4	Dungy		 6	 2	4	| 1	 0	3
2007	13-3	Dungy		 3	 2 	8	| 2	 1	0
2006	12-4	Dungy		 4	 4	4	| 3	 1	1
===============================================================================
Caldwell Total:			 9	 1	12	| 4	 0	4
Dungy Total:			 13	 8	16	| 6	 2	1
Overall Total:			 22	 9	28	| 10	 2	5


				== Patriots ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	12-2	Belichick	 4	 0	8	| 0	 0	2
2009	10-6	Belichick	 1	 2	7	| 3	 2	1
2008	11-5	Belichick	 1	 2	8	| 2	 0	3
2007	16-0	Belichick	 4	 0	12	| 0	 0	0
2006	12-4	Belichick	 3	 2	7	| 1	 1	2
===============================================================================
Belichick Total:		 13	 6	42	| 6	 3	8


				== Bears ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	10-4	Smith		 3	 3	4	| 2	 0	2
2009	7-9	Smith		 1	 2	4	| 2	 3	4
2008	9-7	Smith		 4	 1	4	| 3	 2	2
2007	7-9	Smith		 2	 1	4	| 1	 3	5
2006	13-3	Smith		 3	 1	9	| 1	 0	2
===============================================================================
Smith Total:			 13	 8	23	| 9	 8	15


				== Lions ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	4-10	Schwartz	 2	 0	2	| 5	 1	4
2009	2-14	Schwartz	 1	 1	0	| 0	 2	12
2008	0-16	Marinelli	 0	 0	0 	| 3	 1	12
2007 	7-9	Marinelli	 1	 2	4	| 1	 1	7
2006	3-13	Marinelli	 1	 0	2	| 1	 7	5
===============================================================================
Schwartz Total:			 3	 1	2	| 5	 3	16
Marinelli Total:		 2	 2	6	| 6	 9	24
Overall Total:			 5	 3	8	| 11	 12	40


				== Vikings ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	5-9	Childress*	 3	 0	2	| 2	 1	6
2009	12-4	Childress	 2	 1	9	| 0	 1	3
2008	10-6	Childress	 5	 1	4	| 1	 4	1
2007	8-8	Childress	 1	 3	4	| 3	 2	3
2006	6-10	Childress	 2	 1	3	| 3	 3	4
===============================================================================
Childress Total:		 13	 6	22	| 9	 11	17

* Childress got fired during the season and Leslie Frazier took over as interim 

coach. I still gave Childress credit for the games Frazier coached.

And of course McCarthy and the Packers.


				== Packers ==
Year	Record	Coach			Wins		|	Losses
===============================================================================
				0-4	5-7	8+	|0-4	5-7	8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010	8-6	McCarthy	 2	 1	5	| 6	 0	0
2009	11-5	McCarthy	 0	 3	8	| 1	 2	2	
2008	6-10	McCarthy	 0	 1	5	| 7	 0	3	
2007	13-3	McCarthy	 2	 2	9	| 0	 1	2
2006	8-8	McCarthy	 1	 2	5	| 1	 1	6
===============================================================================
McCarthy Total:			 5	 9	32	| 15	 4	12

Reaction
Obviously these are raw stats that negate any situational or conditional aspects of the game (missed FG's, injuries, weather, etc) so you can't draw any definite conclusions. Yet it's apparent that McCarthy's teams have not fared well in close games. Here are the records for coaches in games decided by 4 points or less: McCarthy (5-15), Tomlin (8-9), Dungy (13-6), Caldwell (9-4), Bellchick (13-6), Lovie Smith (13-9), Childress (13-9), Schwartz (3-5), Marinelli (2-6). Of all the coaches I checked McCarthy has the worst winning percentage in games decided by 4 points or less.

When you bump it up to games decided by a TD (7 points) or less McCarthy fares a bit better: McCarthy (14-19), Childress (19-20), Schwartz (4-8), Marinelli (4-15), Smith (21-17), Belichick(19-9), Caldwell (10-4), Dungy (21-8), Tomlin (14-16).

However what's interesting are the records for games decided by 8 points or more: Tomlin (23-5), Caldwell (12-4), Dungy (16-1), Belichick (42-8), Smith (23-15), Schwartz (2-16), Marinelli (6-24), Childress (22-17), McCarthy (32-12).

Now here's what's interesting. Let's lose the 2006 8-8 season for a moment. Of the 12 times that McCarthy's teams have been beaten by 8 or more points 6 came in the 8-8 2006 season. That means that over the past 4 years McCarthy has only lost 6 games by 8 or more points and 3 by 5-7 points. 14 of the Packers 23 losses in the past four years have been decided by 0-4 points. For comparison: McCarthy (14/23), Childress (6/27), Smith (8/29), Belichick (5/13), Tomlin (9/21), Dungy (6/13) Caldwell (4/8).

From a year-to-year standpoint McCarthy's teams are improving by playing more close games and blowing out more opponents. It seems that McCarthy is really close to the "elite" level of coaching but he has to make the leap from "good" or as some around here would like to say "mediocre." Here's to hoping he can figure it out and get us there!

Like I said before these are only stats and can never explain the whole story. Take from this what you will.
Zero2Cool
14 years ago
Incredible!
UserPostedImage
Felipe7777777
14 years ago
Nice freakin idea and data collecting, bravo, real interesting too, thanks!
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mi_keys
14 years ago
+1 for the work, I always appreciate it when someone digs up as many statistics as you have to give us another viewpoint to look at what has happened.
Born and bred a cheesehead
Greg C.
14 years ago
Interesting stuff, and I agree with your conclusion that McCarthy falls short of being an "elite" coach. This is kind of a good companion piece to the article that somebody linked a few weeks ago, which demonstrated that Aaron Rodgers' lack of comeback wins is not really his fault. The problem seems to be a broader one with McCarthy's teams. Collectively, it seems like they just don't have the starch to win their share of close games.

The question is whether this means McCarthy is not the right guy to lead the Packers to a championship. I think he's shown a lot more good than bad in his time here, and he has almost certainly earned at least another year.
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millertime
14 years ago
+1. Thanks for this. Nice to have some data to support what we all know, the Pack will either blow a team out or lose by a FG.
14 years ago
Don't you just hate it on a message board when some guy lips off and you wind up doing all the resarch. You and some otthers can learn a few things but thee will always be somebody saying something without the facts.

The funny thing this season is the Packers had been leading in net points for many weeks but now dropped to 3rd (1st in NFC) and in net TD's they are second to Patriots.
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