I decided to compile margin of victory stats for 7 different teams (Steelers, Patriots, Colts and the whole NFC North) over the past 5 years because of something NonStopDrivel said. I can't remember exactly what it was though.
A Few NotesI used margins of 0-4, 5-7 and 8+ points. In hindsight 0-3, 4-7 and 8+ may have been better but I'm not doing this all again ;)
I tried to pick teams that have had both consistency at the head coaching position and had fielded great teams in recent history. I then picked the NFC North to get a more robust sample base so we're not just comparing McCarthy to "elite" coaches.
I did not include any playoff games.
== Steelers ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
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2010 10-4 Tomlin 3 3 4 | 1 1 2
2009 9-7 Tomlin 3 1 5 | 5 2 0
2008 12-4 Tomlin 3 2 6 | 1 1 2
2007 10-6 Tomlin 2 0 8 | 2 3 1
2006 8-8 Cowher 1 2 5 | 1 1 6
===============================================================================
Tomlin Total: 8 6 23 | 9 7 5
Cowher Total: 1 2 5 | 2 3 1
Overall Total: 9 8 28 | 11 10 6
== Colts ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 8-6 Caldwell 2 1 5 | 4 0 2
2009 14-2 Caldwell 7 0 7 | 0 0 2
2008 12-4 Dungy 6 2 4 | 1 0 3
2007 13-3 Dungy 3 2 8 | 2 1 0
2006 12-4 Dungy 4 4 4 | 3 1 1
===============================================================================
Caldwell Total: 9 1 12 | 4 0 4
Dungy Total: 13 8 16 | 6 2 1
Overall Total: 22 9 28 | 10 2 5
== Patriots ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 12-2 Belichick 4 0 8 | 0 0 2
2009 10-6 Belichick 1 2 7 | 3 2 1
2008 11-5 Belichick 1 2 8 | 2 0 3
2007 16-0 Belichick 4 0 12 | 0 0 0
2006 12-4 Belichick 3 2 7 | 1 1 2
===============================================================================
Belichick Total: 13 6 42 | 6 3 8
== Bears ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 10-4 Smith 3 3 4 | 2 0 2
2009 7-9 Smith 1 2 4 | 2 3 4
2008 9-7 Smith 4 1 4 | 3 2 2
2007 7-9 Smith 2 1 4 | 1 3 5
2006 13-3 Smith 3 1 9 | 1 0 2
===============================================================================
Smith Total: 13 8 23 | 9 8 15
== Lions ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 4-10 Schwartz 2 0 2 | 5 1 4
2009 2-14 Schwartz 1 1 0 | 0 2 12
2008 0-16 Marinelli 0 0 0 | 3 1 12
2007 7-9 Marinelli 1 2 4 | 1 1 7
2006 3-13 Marinelli 1 0 2 | 1 7 5
===============================================================================
Schwartz Total: 3 1 2 | 5 3 16
Marinelli Total: 2 2 6 | 6 9 24
Overall Total: 5 3 8 | 11 12 40
== Vikings ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 5-9 Childress* 3 0 2 | 2 1 6
2009 12-4 Childress 2 1 9 | 0 1 3
2008 10-6 Childress 5 1 4 | 1 4 1
2007 8-8 Childress 1 3 4 | 3 2 3
2006 6-10 Childress 2 1 3 | 3 3 4
===============================================================================
Childress Total: 13 6 22 | 9 11 17
* Childress got fired during the season and Leslie Frazier took over as interim
coach. I still gave Childress credit for the games Frazier coached.
And of course McCarthy and the Packers.
== Packers ==
Year Record Coach Wins | Losses
===============================================================================
0-4 5-7 8+ |0-4 5-7 8+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 8-6 McCarthy 2 1 5 | 6 0 0
2009 11-5 McCarthy 0 3 8 | 1 2 2
2008 6-10 McCarthy 0 1 5 | 7 0 3
2007 13-3 McCarthy 2 2 9 | 0 1 2
2006 8-8 McCarthy 1 2 5 | 1 1 6
===============================================================================
McCarthy Total: 5 9 32 | 15 4 12
Obviously these are raw stats that negate any situational or conditional aspects of the game (missed FG's, injuries, weather, etc) so you can't draw any definite conclusions. Yet it's apparent that McCarthy's teams have not fared well in close games. Here are the records for coaches in games decided by 4 points or less: McCarthy (5-15), Tomlin (8-9), Dungy (13-6), Caldwell (9-4), Bellchick (13-6), Lovie Smith (13-9), Childress (13-9), Schwartz (3-5), Marinelli (2-6). Of all the coaches I checked McCarthy has the worst winning percentage in games decided by 4 points or less.
When you bump it up to games decided by a TD (7 points) or less McCarthy fares a bit better: McCarthy (14-19), Childress (19-20), Schwartz (4-8), Marinelli (4-15), Smith (21-17), Belichick(19-9), Caldwell (10-4), Dungy (21-8), Tomlin (14-16).
However what's interesting are the records for games decided by 8 points or more: Tomlin (23-5), Caldwell (12-4), Dungy (16-1), Belichick (42-8), Smith (23-15), Schwartz (2-16), Marinelli (6-24), Childress (22-17), McCarthy (32-12).
Now here's what's interesting. Let's lose the 2006 8-8 season for a moment. Of the 12 times that McCarthy's teams have been beaten by 8 or more points 6 came in the 8-8 2006 season. That means that over the past 4 years McCarthy has only lost 6 games by 8 or more points and 3 by 5-7 points. 14 of the Packers 23 losses in the past four years have been decided by 0-4 points. For comparison: McCarthy (14/23), Childress (6/27), Smith (8/29), Belichick (5/13), Tomlin (9/21), Dungy (6/13) Caldwell (4/8).
From a year-to-year standpoint McCarthy's teams are improving by playing more close games and blowing out more opponents. It seems that McCarthy is really close to the "elite" level of coaching but he has to make the leap from "good" or as some around here would like to say "mediocre." Here's to hoping he can figure it out and get us there!
Like I said before these are only stats and can never explain the whole story. Take from this what you will.