Packers Will Go 7-9 ·

Rockmolder
100% (Exalted)
Honored Member Topic Starter

15 years ago

Green Bay - One of my annual pre-training camp rituals is to venture to the bookstore to pick up the latest Pro Football Prospectus from the guys at FootballOutsiders.com.

Well, there have been some changes this year.

For one, it's now called the Football Outsiders Almanac: The Essential Guide to 2009 NFL and College Football Seasons.

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Rockmolder
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Honored Member Topic Starter

15 years ago

That's quite a reality check on the Capers hiring. Of course I trust the man, but he's not the surefire great cordinator that will turn this team around. That might not've been a very realistic expectation, but you always hoe that that happens.

Love the little statistics at the end of the article as well. It once more shows that Lee is more of a red zone weapon than anything else. Apparently, there's a reason for the fact that McCarthy calls runs to the left the entire time (and maybe why Tauscher isn't resigned) and how important a blocking FB still is.

go.pack.go.
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

I see where they are coming from but that is all just prediction.

dhazer
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

That was a great read i enjoyed that. As far as 7-9 there is a few of us on here that have called from 7-9 to 9-7 as our predictions. We have a very very tough final month and 1/2 of the year, so we will see what we can get before that.

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)

DGB454
50.25% (Neutral)
Registered

15 years ago

"The Packers' projection is all over the place. We see them as having a 9% chance of winning 0-3 games, a 29% chance of winning 4-6, a 24% chance of getting 7-8 wins, a 24% chance of 9-10 wins, and a 14% chance of 11+ wins."

In other words. We are covering our a$$es and choosing the middle number because we have no idea.

warhawk
100% (Exalted)
Senior Member

15 years ago

I say bull.

First of all I won't concede more than a split with the Vikes and Bears and a sweep of Detroit in the division.

That's two losses.

The four next most difficult games will be Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburg, and, Arizona. Let's just say that doesn't go well and we end up 1-3 there.

That totals five losses.

That means out of the remaining six games against the Bengals, Rams, 49'rs, Bucs, Browns and Seahawks we lose four of those? If we lose one of those I'll be pissed.

I would like to ask how they came up with a prediction for 11-5 in '07 and now 7-9 this year when there is no way this is not a better team and the schedule could not have been easier in '07 than what we have this season.

I would like to see proof that they actually predicted 11-5 in '07 and that wasn't just one of those 24% possible results scenario's.

"The train is leaving the station."

dhazer
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

I say bull.

First of all I won't concede more than a split with the Vikes and Bears and a sweep of Detroit in the division.

That's two losses.

The four next most difficult games will be Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburg, and, Arizona. Let's just say that doesn't go well and we end up 1-3 there.

That totals five losses.

That means out of the remaining six games against the Bengals, Rams, 49'rs, Bucs, Browns and Seahawks we lose four of those? If we lose one of those I'll be pissed.

I would like to ask how they came up with a prediction for 11-5 in '07 and now 7-9 this year when there is no way this is not a better team and the schedule could not have been easier in '07 than what we have this season.

I would like to see proof that they actually predicted 11-5 in '07 and that wasn't just one of those 24% possible results scenario's.

"warhawk" wrote:

In the bolded part well i can see you being very mad then cuz i can see us possibly losing to the Browns, Bucs, and Bengals. The Browns can play when healthy look what they did to the Giants last year, The Bengals will have a healthy Palmer which makes them alot better and they have a very good defense, and the Bucs we lost to last year so whats so bad about them this year besides they will be wearing those awesome unis.

Remember also the Hawks will have Hasselbeck back at Qb, and the 49er's have a good running game (where we struggled).

And to top it all off i won't be surprised if we split with the Lions.

I'm not saying we will lose those games but it won't surprise me either.

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)

porky88
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

I could see it, but I also haven't been a huge fan of football outsiders. A lot of their stuff that I often read is ridiculous in my view such as Eric Moulds being the best receiver in the 98 season. He was great, but not the best and numbers just don't factor in everything that goes around.

7-9 though is something I could see though assuming everything goes poorly for the Packers like it did a year ago.

They do factor in injuries though. They're predicting injuries on offense and while they say that the Packers were healthy last year the fact is Rodgers and Grant were banged up for quite awhile. I wonder if they factor in toughness?

I think not.

http://www.row12.com/

Blank402
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Registered

15 years ago

It looks like FO usually under or overestimates by a few games. Let's hope this year they're underestimating us.

One thing I did notice was that part of their prediction is that we'll suffer more injuries on offense this year. Hopefully, that's not true, but if it is I'm much more confident about our offensive depth (except at QB) than I am our defensive depth.

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Zero2Cool
100% (Exalted)
Elite Member

15 years ago

#10

Sweet! So that means we're going to be the first team to win a Super Bowl with a sub .500 record.

I'm down with that.

Greg C.
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Registered

15 years ago

#11

That was an interesting read. I think the Packers will be at least a couple games better than 7-9, but at least these folks have an explanation for their prediction.

It seems like there are some contradictions in the article, however. For example, they talk about some stats being the result of luck, so that they are bound to change the following year, and yet they cite Ryan Grant's superior YPC with Korey Hall at FB as if it is gospel. Who's to say that it wasn't just another example of luck, or even more likely, a result of other factors, like maybe the coaches put Korey Hall on the field in situations that were more conducive to longer runs.

Another bit that did not impress me was about QB's winning percentages in close games vs. blowouts. Joe Montana had a great winning percentage in blowouts because he was a great QB on the best team of the era, so they had a lot of blowouts. So it's not exactly a surprise that his team would more often lose close games than blowouts. The same is true of Favre, of course, but to a lesser extent because his team was less dominant than Montana's.

This is the equivalent to when you're watching an NBA game and the TV people tell you that a certain team has a way better winning percentage when it scores over 100 points. Well of course they do! You are more likely to win when you score more points! That one always makes me swear at the TV. (Yes, it is a lonely life I lead.)

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Stevetarded
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Registered

15 years ago

#12

That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.

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evad04
100% (Exalted)
Member

15 years ago

#13

That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.

"Stevetarded" wrote:

And the truth has set us free. Any "credible" source that supposes Culpepper will have a higher completion percentage than Rodgers is bonkers.

William Henderson didn't have to run people over. His preferred method was levitation.
"I'm a reasonable man, get off my case."

dfosterf
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#14

The DVOA is their best attempt at applying their brand of statistical modeling to achieve a reasonably good predictive outcome. Unfortunately, it has quite a few flaws, and while reasonably entertaining and somewhat sophisticated, it is hardly the best that is out there if you subscribe to a concept that predictions can be made through statistical analysis of the past when it comes to a game like NFL football.

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it, lol- He did luck. That's right, luck. We were ranked 28th in luck last year. I never posted this, and you are going to find it yourself, but as I said, if you are "into" it, this should keep you busy for some time.

Have fun. BTW anal-retentive can be spelled with either a hyphen OR a dash, and I have the stats to prove it. :thumbleft:

Advanced NFL Stats.com

I personally have never "got behind" some mathematical theories...Still having some conceptual difficulties with the space/time continuum, for example, but that one doesn't really piss me off. The one that angers me (tongue in cheek, folks) is the " "Let's make a deal" " conundrum.

Here--Deal with it---

Let's make a deal

As you reflect upon numbers and numbers guys, I direct your attention to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities packages. That is a very fine example of those guys' best thinking. I'll stick to big fat linemen, thank you very much. :thumbleft:

mi_keys
100% (Exalted)
Senior Member

15 years ago

#15

One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.

Born and bred a cheesehead

dhazer
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#16

One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.

"mi_keys" wrote:

I'm sure they are talking about missed games, i bet all the players had some sort of injury 😛

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)

dhpackr
60% (Friendly)
Registered

15 years ago

#17

if the Packers go 7-9 i expect to see some changes in the front office and coaching staff.

So if you meet me Have some courtesy, Have some sympathy, and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse, Or I'll lay your soul to waste

Greg C.
50.25% (Neutral)
Registered

15 years ago

#18

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it

"dfosterf" wrote:

Could you please be more specific? I just looked at a whole bunch of anal web sites, and I couldn't find anything about football.

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Nonstopdrivel
100% (Exalted)
Preferred Member

15 years ago

#19

Just to set the record straight, Foster has in fact posted about DVOA in the past, and the realization he fails to recollect this certainty causes me some concern for the integrity of his cognitive function. You might want to refer yourself to a qualified physician for a basic neurological evaluation, my friend. ;)

Personally, I think the prediction of 7-9 can be dismissed virtually out of hand (and no, I'm not going to waste time providing my analysis of why -- I've done so extensively in other threads), and furthermore, I must admit that I find the veiled glee with which said prediction has been received by certain parties on this site borderline offensive.

I don't know why I'm so defensive of the team lately. I guess I'm feeling more patient than usual. The game is played on the field, not on paper, and I'm feeling optimistic about this season, so goddammit, all of you will too. :P

My hiatus is nearly up and I shall return in full force within a few days.

Wade
100% (Exalted)
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#20

"dfosterf" wrote:

Ow. Stats. Probability. Monte Carlo methods or not. My head hurts.

:scratch: :scratch:
[Aside:thanks for this post, dfosterf -- recently found I have to teach biz stats next spring (mutter, mutter, barf, barf) -- maybe I can use the two NFL stats-oriented sites for a project for the sports geeks in the class. 🙂 ]

28th in luck. aging/hurt tauscher, spitz/moll/whoever, wells/whoever, college/whoever, chronic-false-starts-clifton.....how'd we manage as high as 28th?

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)

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