Greg C.
16 years ago
That was an interesting read. I think the Packers will be at least a couple games better than 7-9, but at least these folks have an explanation for their prediction.

It seems like there are some contradictions in the article, however. For example, they talk about some stats being the result of luck, so that they are bound to change the following year, and yet they cite Ryan Grant's superior YPC with Korey Hall at FB as if it is gospel. Who's to say that it wasn't just another example of luck, or even more likely, a result of other factors, like maybe the coaches put Korey Hall on the field in situations that were more conducive to longer runs.

Another bit that did not impress me was about QB's winning percentages in close games vs. blowouts. Joe Montana had a great winning percentage in blowouts because he was a great QB on the best team of the era, so they had a lot of blowouts. So it's not exactly a surprise that his team would more often lose close games than blowouts. The same is true of Favre, of course, but to a lesser extent because his team was less dominant than Montana's.

This is the equivalent to when you're watching an NBA game and the TV people tell you that a certain team has a way better winning percentage when it scores over 100 points. Well of course they do! You are more likely to win when you score more points! That one always makes me swear at the TV. (Yes, it is a lonely life I lead.)
blank
Stevetarded
16 years ago
That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.
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evad04
16 years ago

That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.

"Stevetarded" wrote:


And the truth has set us free. Any "credible" source that supposes Culpepper will have a higher completion percentage than Rodgers is bonkers.
William Henderson didn't have to run people over. His preferred method was levitation.
"I'm a reasonable man, get off my case."
dfosterf
16 years ago
The DVOA is their best attempt at applying their brand of statistical modeling to achieve a reasonably good predictive outcome. Unfortunately, it has quite a few flaws, and while reasonably entertaining and somewhat sophisticated, it is hardly the best that is out there if you subscribe to a concept that predictions can be made through statistical analysis of the past when it comes to a game like NFL football.

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it, lol- He did luck. That's right, luck. We were ranked 28th in luck last year. I never posted this, and you are going to find it yourself, but as I said, if you are "into" it, this should keep you busy for some time.

Have fun. BTW anal-retentive can be spelled with either a hyphen OR a dash, and I have the stats to prove it. :thumbleft:

Advanced NFL Stats.com 

I personally have never "got behind" some mathematical theories...Still having some conceptual difficulties with the space/time continuum, for example, but that one doesn't really piss me off. The one that angers me (tongue in cheek, folks) is the " "Let's make a deal" " conundrum.

Here--Deal with it---


Let's make a deal 

As you reflect upon numbers and numbers guys, I direct your attention to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities packages. That is a very fine example of those guys' best thinking. I'll stick to big fat linemen, thank you very much. :thumbleft:
mi_keys
16 years ago
One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.
Born and bred a cheesehead
dhazer
16 years ago

One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.

"mi_keys" wrote:




I'm sure they are talking about missed games, i bet all the players had some sort of injury 😛
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
reed
dhpackr
16 years ago
if the Packers go 7-9 i expect to see some changes in the front office and coaching staff.
So if you meet me Have some courtesy, Have some sympathy, and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse, Or I'll lay your soul to waste
Greg C.
16 years ago

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it

"dfosterf" wrote:



Could you please be more specific? I just looked at a whole bunch of anal web sites, and I couldn't find anything about football.
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Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago
Just to set the record straight, Foster has in fact posted about DVOA in the past, and the realization he fails to recollect this certainty causes me some concern for the integrity of his cognitive function. You might want to refer yourself to a qualified physician for a basic neurological evaluation, my friend. ;)

Personally, I think the prediction of 7-9 can be dismissed virtually out of hand (and no, I'm not going to waste time providing my analysis of why -- I've done so extensively in other threads), and furthermore, I must admit that I find the veiled glee with which said prediction has been received by certain parties on this site borderline offensive.

I don't know why I'm so defensive of the team lately. I guess I'm feeling more patient than usual. The game is played on the field, not on paper, and I'm feeling optimistic about this season, so goddammit, all of you will too. :P

My hiatus is nearly up and I shall return in full force within a few days.
UserPostedImage
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
16 years ago

The DVOA is their best attempt at applying their brand of statistical modeling to achieve a reasonably good predictive outcome. Unfortunately, it has quite a few flaws, and while reasonably entertaining and somewhat sophisticated, it is hardly the best that is out there if you subscribe to a concept that predictions can be made through statistical analysis of the past when it comes to a game like NFL football.

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it, lol- He did luck. That's right, luck. We were ranked 28th in luck last year. I never posted this, and you are going to find it yourself, but as I said, if you are "into" it, this should keep you busy for some time.

Have fun. BTW anal-retentive can be spelled with either a hyphen OR a dash, and I have the stats to prove it. :thumbleft:

Advanced NFL Stats.com 

I personally have never "got behind" some mathematical theories...Still having some conceptual difficulties with the space/time continuum, for example, but that one doesn't really piss me off. The one that angers me (tongue in cheek, folks) is the " "Let's make a deal" " conundrum.

Here--Deal with it---


Let's make a deal 

As you reflect upon numbers and numbers guys, I direct your attention to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities packages. That is a very fine example of those guys' best thinking. I'll stick to big fat linemen, thank you very much. :thumbleft:

"dfosterf" wrote:



Ow. Stats. Probability. Monte Carlo methods or not. My head hurts.

:scratch: :scratch:
[Aside:thanks for this post, dfosterf -- recently found I have to teach biz stats next spring (mutter, mutter, barf, barf) -- maybe I can use the two NFL stats-oriented sites for a project for the sports geeks in the class. 🙂 ]

28th in luck. aging/hurt tauscher, spitz/moll/whoever, wells/whoever, college/whoever, chronic-false-starts-clifton.....how'd we manage as high as 28th?
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
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Mucky Tundra (17m) : RICKEY SCOOPS WAS RIGHT AGAIN!!!
Mucky Tundra (17m) : ITS HAPPENING
buckeyepackfan (18m) : DEAL IS DONE
buckeyepackfan (19m) : MICAH IS COMING TO GREEN BAY!!!!!!!!!
wpr (7h) : Me do-ed it gooderly,
Zero2Cool (21h) : Bahah, I was like WTF why isn't anyone posting on PP.com ... oops no one has permissions
dfosterf (22h) : tell her I reckon
dfosterf (22h) : Micah Robinson cut. Probable PS player tomorrow. Has to call mom back and t
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : New site so much better. Might make switch and deal with it.
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Mecole Hardman to our practice squad
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Nick Nieman from Texans our 5th linebacker. Special teams signing
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Looks like we signed Clayton Tune as QB3
wpr (27-Aug) : TKT people lose their minds over QB3. Point is almost none of them are ready that's why they are on the PS and other teams don't take them.
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Unfortunately he doesn't seem ready to be an emergency QB.
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : As a Canadian and a follower of Canadian University football. I am rooting for him
dfosterf (27-Aug) : I bet a lot of us will follow the Taylor Elgersma journey with interest. Personally, got a Kurt Warner vibe goin' on. I like him
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Not sure if either will be claimed though.
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Tune or Hooker would make sense
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Clayton Tune cut by the Cards? Don't know if that's the guy, we shall see
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Per Bill Huber, the Packers will not be bringing back Taylor Elgersma or Sean Clifford on the practice squad, so a new third quarterback
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : Schefter must have deleted his tweet
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Hopefully Jerry reaches under the seat cushions and ashtrays of his jet and scrapes up the 45 million apr and spares us further nonsense
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Have to admit the PO'd Cowboy fan videos would be fun to watch. Problem with draft picks is half their fanbase barely knows what that is
beast (27-Aug) : I think Cowboys fans are ready to get their pitch forks and burning sticks if Jerry were to trade Micah
dfosterf (27-Aug) : If Jerry traded Micah to GB, here in northern Va. they would have to quick build yet another data center to handle the internet hate traffic
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : its signing and trades that you don't hear about, other then announced
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : If you hear rumors about Packers sign or trade, won't happen. Not how they work
dfosterf (27-Aug) : 19 players in a contract year. Jones called loss to us worst loss in Cowboy history. Forget Parsons trade. Not happenin' Cap'n
packerfanoutwest (27-Aug) : The Packers, meanwhile, are the youngest team in the league for the third consecutive year.
dfosterf (27-Aug) : That it was darkest before the dawn in Bengals and Commanders before they got deals done
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : what is Schefter saying?
dfosterf (27-Aug) : He was getting Dorito infusion therapy
dfosterf (27-Aug) : He's outta shape. Why, just the other day I saw him splayed out on the trainers table
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : Parsons has followed Rasheed Walker on Twitter. Quite the choice
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : Kuhn is a former player who works for the team, if somethings going down, he would be close to it
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : @kuhnj30 Micah Freaking Parsons
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : A LOT of buzz on the Bird App regarding Parsons; even Schefter is saying it's serious
dfosterf (26-Aug) : *Orzech*
dfosterf (26-Aug) : Orzich long snapper 3 yr extension
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : Packers signed someone for three year deal
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : lol i know it's insane ... sign up for the waiver wire then you'll know
wpr (26-Aug) : YES!!!!!!
Mucky Tundra (26-Aug) : WE WANT THE LIST! WE WANT THE LIST!
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : @JJLahey · 2m Holy crap, Packers, where the heck is the list?
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : haha folks on Tweeter every year this time ... 'where is list Packers!!" hahaha
wpr (26-Aug) : He played pretty good.
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : NAZIR STACKHOUSE HAS MADE THE 53
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : NOOOOO KALEN IS GONE
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