Greg C.
15 years ago
That was an interesting read. I think the Packers will be at least a couple games better than 7-9, but at least these folks have an explanation for their prediction.

It seems like there are some contradictions in the article, however. For example, they talk about some stats being the result of luck, so that they are bound to change the following year, and yet they cite Ryan Grant's superior YPC with Korey Hall at FB as if it is gospel. Who's to say that it wasn't just another example of luck, or even more likely, a result of other factors, like maybe the coaches put Korey Hall on the field in situations that were more conducive to longer runs.

Another bit that did not impress me was about QB's winning percentages in close games vs. blowouts. Joe Montana had a great winning percentage in blowouts because he was a great QB on the best team of the era, so they had a lot of blowouts. So it's not exactly a surprise that his team would more often lose close games than blowouts. The same is true of Favre, of course, but to a lesser extent because his team was less dominant than Montana's.

This is the equivalent to when you're watching an NBA game and the TV people tell you that a certain team has a way better winning percentage when it scores over 100 points. Well of course they do! You are more likely to win when you score more points! That one always makes me swear at the TV. (Yes, it is a lonely life I lead.)
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Stevetarded
15 years ago
That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.
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evad04
15 years ago

That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.

"Stevetarded" wrote:


And the truth has set us free. Any "credible" source that supposes Culpepper will have a higher completion percentage than Rodgers is bonkers.
William Henderson didn't have to run people over. His preferred method was levitation.
"I'm a reasonable man, get off my case."
dfosterf
15 years ago
The DVOA is their best attempt at applying their brand of statistical modeling to achieve a reasonably good predictive outcome. Unfortunately, it has quite a few flaws, and while reasonably entertaining and somewhat sophisticated, it is hardly the best that is out there if you subscribe to a concept that predictions can be made through statistical analysis of the past when it comes to a game like NFL football.

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it, lol- He did luck. That's right, luck. We were ranked 28th in luck last year. I never posted this, and you are going to find it yourself, but as I said, if you are "into" it, this should keep you busy for some time.

Have fun. BTW anal-retentive can be spelled with either a hyphen OR a dash, and I have the stats to prove it. :thumbleft:

Advanced NFL Stats.com 

I personally have never "got behind" some mathematical theories...Still having some conceptual difficulties with the space/time continuum, for example, but that one doesn't really piss me off. The one that angers me (tongue in cheek, folks) is the " "Let's make a deal" " conundrum.

Here--Deal with it---


Let's make a deal 

As you reflect upon numbers and numbers guys, I direct your attention to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities packages. That is a very fine example of those guys' best thinking. I'll stick to big fat linemen, thank you very much. :thumbleft:
mi_keys
15 years ago
One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.
Born and bred a cheesehead
dhazer
15 years ago

One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.

"mi_keys" wrote:




I'm sure they are talking about missed games, i bet all the players had some sort of injury 😛
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
UserPostedImage
dhpackr
15 years ago
if the Packers go 7-9 i expect to see some changes in the front office and coaching staff.
So if you meet me Have some courtesy, Have some sympathy, and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse, Or I'll lay your soul to waste
Greg C.
15 years ago

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it

"dfosterf" wrote:



Could you please be more specific? I just looked at a whole bunch of anal web sites, and I couldn't find anything about football.
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Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
Just to set the record straight, Foster has in fact posted about DVOA in the past, and the realization he fails to recollect this certainty causes me some concern for the integrity of his cognitive function. You might want to refer yourself to a qualified physician for a basic neurological evaluation, my friend. ;)

Personally, I think the prediction of 7-9 can be dismissed virtually out of hand (and no, I'm not going to waste time providing my analysis of why -- I've done so extensively in other threads), and furthermore, I must admit that I find the veiled glee with which said prediction has been received by certain parties on this site borderline offensive.

I don't know why I'm so defensive of the team lately. I guess I'm feeling more patient than usual. The game is played on the field, not on paper, and I'm feeling optimistic about this season, so goddammit, all of you will too. :P

My hiatus is nearly up and I shall return in full force within a few days.
UserPostedImage
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
15 years ago

The DVOA is their best attempt at applying their brand of statistical modeling to achieve a reasonably good predictive outcome. Unfortunately, it has quite a few flaws, and while reasonably entertaining and somewhat sophisticated, it is hardly the best that is out there if you subscribe to a concept that predictions can be made through statistical analysis of the past when it comes to a game like NFL football.

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it, lol- He did luck. That's right, luck. We were ranked 28th in luck last year. I never posted this, and you are going to find it yourself, but as I said, if you are "into" it, this should keep you busy for some time.

Have fun. BTW anal-retentive can be spelled with either a hyphen OR a dash, and I have the stats to prove it. :thumbleft:

Advanced NFL Stats.com 

I personally have never "got behind" some mathematical theories...Still having some conceptual difficulties with the space/time continuum, for example, but that one doesn't really piss me off. The one that angers me (tongue in cheek, folks) is the " "Let's make a deal" " conundrum.

Here--Deal with it---


Let's make a deal 

As you reflect upon numbers and numbers guys, I direct your attention to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities packages. That is a very fine example of those guys' best thinking. I'll stick to big fat linemen, thank you very much. :thumbleft:

"dfosterf" wrote:



Ow. Stats. Probability. Monte Carlo methods or not. My head hurts.

:scratch: :scratch:
[Aside:thanks for this post, dfosterf -- recently found I have to teach biz stats next spring (mutter, mutter, barf, barf) -- maybe I can use the two NFL stats-oriented sites for a project for the sports geeks in the class. 🙂 ]

28th in luck. aging/hurt tauscher, spitz/moll/whoever, wells/whoever, college/whoever, chronic-false-starts-clifton.....how'd we manage as high as 28th?
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (7h) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (21h) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Bears get OL fixed amd we might have a problem
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Pretty sure they already have scouting reports on guys who aren't even starting for their college team. The future is now for me.
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : I tend to let Gute and Co. Worry about the future.
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Jaire and Evans Williams are both ACTIVE! Good news.
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : The badgers really need to change the whole offensive scheme. No draws no screens plus the quarterback is marginal
Cheesey (17-Nov) : If the Badgers had a decent QB, they would have won. The guy can't hit a wide open receiver
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : chop block
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : there was a very questionable job Block call that upon viewing replay was very borderline
beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Badgers got hosed vs Oregon
packerfanoutwest (16-Nov) : damn,he hasn't played since week 2
Mucky Tundra (15-Nov) : poor guy can't catch a break
wpr (15-Nov) : wow. That three different things for the kid.
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