Rockmolder
16 years ago
Football Outsiders: Packers will go 7-9 

Green Bay - One of my annual pre-training camp rituals is to venture to the bookstore to pick up the latest Pro Football Prospectus from the guys at FootballOutsiders.com.

Well, there have been some changes this year.

For one, it's now called the Football Outsiders Almanac: The Essential Guide to 2009 NFL and College Football Seasons.

Rockmolder
16 years ago
That's quite a reality check on the Capers hiring. Of course I trust the man, but he's not the surefire great cordinator that will turn this team around. That might not've been a very realistic expectation, but you always hoe that that happens.

Love the little statistics at the end of the article as well. It once more shows that Lee is more of a red zone weapon than anything else. Apparently, there's a reason for the fact that McCarthy calls runs to the left the entire time (and maybe why Tauscher isn't resigned) and how important a blocking FB still is.
go.pack.go.
16 years ago
I see where they are coming from but that is all just prediction.
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dhazer
16 years ago
That was a great read i enjoyed that. As far as 7-9 there is a few of us on here that have called from 7-9 to 9-7 as our predictions. We have a very very tough final month and 1/2 of the year, so we will see what we can get before that.
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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DGB454
16 years ago
"The Packers' projection is all over the place. We see them as having a 9% chance of winning 0-3 games, a 29% chance of winning 4-6, a 24% chance of getting 7-8 wins, a 24% chance of 9-10 wins, and a 14% chance of 11+ wins."

In other words. We are covering our a$$es and choosing the middle number because we have no idea.
warhawk
16 years ago
I say bull.

First of all I won't concede more than a split with the Vikes and Bears and a sweep of Detroit in the division.

That's two losses.

The four next most difficult games will be Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburg, and, Arizona. Let's just say that doesn't go well and we end up 1-3 there.

That totals five losses.

That means out of the remaining six games against the Bengals, Rams, 49'rs, Bucs, Browns and Seahawks we lose four of those? If we lose one of those I'll be pissed.

I would like to ask how they came up with a prediction for 11-5 in '07 and now 7-9 this year when there is no way this is not a better team and the schedule could not have been easier in '07 than what we have this season.

I would like to see proof that they actually predicted 11-5 in '07 and that wasn't just one of those 24% possible results scenario's.
"The train is leaving the station."
dhazer
16 years ago

I say bull.

First of all I won't concede more than a split with the Vikes and Bears and a sweep of Detroit in the division.

That's two losses.

The four next most difficult games will be Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburg, and, Arizona. Let's just say that doesn't go well and we end up 1-3 there.

That totals five losses.

That means out of the remaining six games against the Bengals, Rams, 49'rs, Bucs, Browns and Seahawks we lose four of those? If we lose one of those I'll be pissed.

I would like to ask how they came up with a prediction for 11-5 in '07 and now 7-9 this year when there is no way this is not a better team and the schedule could not have been easier in '07 than what we have this season.

I would like to see proof that they actually predicted 11-5 in '07 and that wasn't just one of those 24% possible results scenario's.

"warhawk" wrote:





In the bolded part well i can see you being very mad then cuz i can see us possibly losing to the Browns, Bucs, and Bengals. The Browns can play when healthy look what they did to the Giants last year, The Bengals will have a healthy Palmer which makes them alot better and they have a very good defense, and the Bucs we lost to last year so whats so bad about them this year besides they will be wearing those awesome unis.

Remember also the Hawks will have Hasselbeck back at Qb, and the 49er's have a good running game (where we struggled).


And to top it all off i won't be surprised if we split with the Lions.


I'm not saying we will lose those games but it won't surprise me either.
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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porky88
16 years ago
I could see it, but I also haven't been a huge fan of football outsiders. A lot of their stuff that I often read is ridiculous in my view such as Eric Moulds being the best receiver in the 98 season. He was great, but not the best and numbers just don't factor in everything that goes around.

7-9 though is something I could see though assuming everything goes poorly for the Packers like it did a year ago.

They do factor in injuries though. They're predicting injuries on offense and while they say that the Packers were healthy last year the fact is Rodgers and Grant were banged up for quite awhile. I wonder if they factor in toughness?

I think not.
http://www.row12.com/ 
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Blank402
16 years ago
It looks like FO usually under or overestimates by a few games. Let's hope this year they're underestimating us.

One thing I did notice was that part of their prediction is that we'll suffer more injuries on offense this year. Hopefully, that's not true, but if it is I'm much more confident about our offensive depth (except at QB) than I am our defensive depth.
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Zero2Cool
16 years ago
Sweet! So that means we're going to be the first team to win a Super Bowl with a sub .500 record.

I'm down with that.
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