Nowhere did I say it does. My point was that the majority of pundits are, for all intents and purposes, as superstitious as card players who believe "the deck is warm" or "9s are hot today." Looking at long-term trends, therefore, is certainly a better indicator of success in the long term than looking at who's "hot" right now. Yes, picking based on who's "hot" or who's "poised to be hot" might notch you more wins in one week, but it's not likely to work well over the course of an entire season. The numbers show that year after year.

"TheEngineer" wrote:

The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:

Nonstopdrivel, thanks for your post. 13-3 is nothing to sniff at.

"Silentio" wrote:

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:

You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.

"Timmons" wrote: