TheEngineer
15 years ago

Prior performance does not guarantee future success

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Nowhere did I say it does. My point was that the majority of pundits are, for all intents and purposes, as superstitious as card players who believe "the deck is warm" or "9s are hot today." Looking at long-term trends, therefore, is certainly a better indicator of success in the long term than looking at who's "hot" right now. Yes, picking based on who's "hot" or who's "poised to be hot" might notch you more wins in one week, but it's not likely to work well over the course of an entire season. The numbers show that year after year.

"TheEngineer" wrote:



Hard to disagree with that.

What I can provide you is a measure of how well your algorithm predicts results. Remind me at the end of the season to knock up something for ya, if you want.
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zombieslayer
15 years ago

The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



The problem with sportswriters is it's apparent not what you know but who you know. A lot of these people shouldn't have jobs in sports. Period.

As a gambler myself, if I had a success rate like that, I wouldn't be gambling. Your algorithm is pretty much my default method (pick "better" team giving the nod to the home team), then from there, I predict upsets.
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Timmons
15 years ago
How do you pick the better team on the first week?
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Tezzy
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:



I take the prior year's records to shoot of my week 1 picks. But I did go out on a limb and pick the Pack over the Bears 🙂
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
Cheesey
15 years ago
The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.
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Tezzy
15 years ago

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:



The last part is probably what makes half the dimwits make the picks they do, so the next week they can praise themselves as a guru. Even Peter King at SI does it. Picking the Lions over the Queens this weekend, silly.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
British
15 years ago

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:



Not that I'm defending these guys but in this case the above statement is wrong.

Gustini actually spent the opening paragraph talking about how bad his picks were in week 1.

I might start a little betting tab using the 'better record' algorithm and see how it does over the season.
UserPostedImage
15 years ago

Nonstopdrivel, thanks for your post. 13-3 is nothing to sniff at.

"Silentio" wrote:



so what *are* you sniffing at, then?

I agree with Twinkiegorilla.

bozz_2006 wrote:


Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:



You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.
UserPostedImage
zombieslayer
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.

"Timmons" wrote:



Home teams last week were 8-7. That's better than what that wannabe expert said.

Funny thing - my old Sociology Prof was telling me that home teams in football win 66-70% of games. If you don't know a thing about football, can't even name all the teams, just pick the home team every time. You'll probably beat these sportswriters.
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