TheEngineer
15 years ago

Prior performance does not guarantee future success

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Nowhere did I say it does. My point was that the majority of pundits are, for all intents and purposes, as superstitious as card players who believe "the deck is warm" or "9s are hot today." Looking at long-term trends, therefore, is certainly a better indicator of success in the long term than looking at who's "hot" right now. Yes, picking based on who's "hot" or who's "poised to be hot" might notch you more wins in one week, but it's not likely to work well over the course of an entire season. The numbers show that year after year.

"TheEngineer" wrote:



Hard to disagree with that.

What I can provide you is a measure of how well your algorithm predicts results. Remind me at the end of the season to knock up something for ya, if you want.
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zombieslayer
15 years ago

The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



The problem with sportswriters is it's apparent not what you know but who you know. A lot of these people shouldn't have jobs in sports. Period.

As a gambler myself, if I had a success rate like that, I wouldn't be gambling. Your algorithm is pretty much my default method (pick "better" team giving the nod to the home team), then from there, I predict upsets.
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Timmons
15 years ago
How do you pick the better team on the first week?
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Tezzy
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:



I take the prior year's records to shoot of my week 1 picks. But I did go out on a limb and pick the Pack over the Bears 🙂
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
Cheesey
15 years ago
The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.
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Tezzy
15 years ago

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:



The last part is probably what makes half the dimwits make the picks they do, so the next week they can praise themselves as a guru. Even Peter King at SI does it. Picking the Lions over the Queens this weekend, silly.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
British
15 years ago

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:



Not that I'm defending these guys but in this case the above statement is wrong.

Gustini actually spent the opening paragraph talking about how bad his picks were in week 1.

I might start a little betting tab using the 'better record' algorithm and see how it does over the season.
UserPostedImage
15 years ago

Nonstopdrivel, thanks for your post. 13-3 is nothing to sniff at.

"Silentio" wrote:



so what *are* you sniffing at, then?

I agree with Twinkiegorilla.

bozz_2006 wrote:


Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:



You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.
UserPostedImage
zombieslayer
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.

"Timmons" wrote:



Home teams last week were 8-7. That's better than what that wannabe expert said.

Funny thing - my old Sociology Prof was telling me that home teams in football win 66-70% of games. If you don't know a thing about football, can't even name all the teams, just pick the home team every time. You'll probably beat these sportswriters.
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Martha Careful (6h) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
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dfosterf (11h) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
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dhazer (13h) : scenario: Our main prospects are off the board when our pick comes around, do we just throw a 2nd round pick at Pittsburgh for Pickens
TheKanataThrilla (13h) : Hopefully she had some comfort that her son will be live his dream when she passed away. Sad news.
Mucky Tundra (14h) : Damn that sucks
Zero2Cool (14h) : News about Derrick Harmon mom, saddening.
Zero2Cool (15h) : Mark Murphy: "I predict we will trade up once and down twice."
beast (17h) : Rip the Packers and getting the fans yelling and booing him
beast (17h) : Super competitive Bears fan and WWE "superstar" wrestler, Seth Rollins is supposed to announce a Bears pick and absolutely rip Packers
packerfanoutwest (25-Apr) : Golden
beast (25-Apr) : I want DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : And I can't be looking at my phone
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Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : btw, new site chat won't delete auto like
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TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : I am wondering if there is some type of autoclear when there isn't activity after a certain amount of time.
Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : What happened in the chat? Me and Zero posted a few things earlier and they're all gone
dfosterf (24-Apr) : 10-15 min bs plus flyover
dfosterf (24-Apr) : Yes
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : 7pm is when this kicks off????
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : I told him. IT'S VONTE MACK , no matter what!
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : He asked me who I thought The Browns were taking.
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : 2. Would of had to wear Browns gear all week. NOPE I'll watch from my living room.
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : He wanted to know if I would go. 2 things, would have had to fly from Detroit to Green Bay. Nope
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : All expense paid trip to the draft. He will be in the Browns section. I told him to say hi to J-10VE for me 😃😃i
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : For a call from my nephew, he won an sllexp
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : Hope to see everyone in the Chat tonight!!! Go Pack Go!!!
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : Jeanty would be a great pick-up for the Bears. I see Warren mocked to them as well who I think would be a great selection.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : GameDay Chat is open. Posting bits an tids in there.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : Excellent Source: The Bears have a deal in place to move up to 5 if Jeanty is there.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : Probably not until 10pm will be making pick
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