TheEngineer
15 years ago

Prior performance does not guarantee future success

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Nowhere did I say it does. My point was that the majority of pundits are, for all intents and purposes, as superstitious as card players who believe "the deck is warm" or "9s are hot today." Looking at long-term trends, therefore, is certainly a better indicator of success in the long term than looking at who's "hot" right now. Yes, picking based on who's "hot" or who's "poised to be hot" might notch you more wins in one week, but it's not likely to work well over the course of an entire season. The numbers show that year after year.

"TheEngineer" wrote:



Hard to disagree with that.

What I can provide you is a measure of how well your algorithm predicts results. Remind me at the end of the season to knock up something for ya, if you want.
blank
zombieslayer
15 years ago

The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



The problem with sportswriters is it's apparent not what you know but who you know. A lot of these people shouldn't have jobs in sports. Period.

As a gambler myself, if I had a success rate like that, I wouldn't be gambling. Your algorithm is pretty much my default method (pick "better" team giving the nod to the home team), then from there, I predict upsets.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
Timmons
15 years ago
How do you pick the better team on the first week?
blank
Tezzy
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:



I take the prior year's records to shoot of my week 1 picks. But I did go out on a limb and pick the Pack over the Bears 🙂
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
Cheesey
15 years ago
The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.
UserPostedImage
Tezzy
15 years ago

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:



The last part is probably what makes half the dimwits make the picks they do, so the next week they can praise themselves as a guru. Even Peter King at SI does it. Picking the Lions over the Queens this weekend, silly.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
British
15 years ago

The thing is, every one of these writers make their picks, and if they are wrong, they ignore it and go onto next week.
ONLY on the rare occasion that they are right do you hear about it. Then they bang their chests and pat themselves on the back.

"Cheesey" wrote:



Not that I'm defending these guys but in this case the above statement is wrong.

Gustini actually spent the opening paragraph talking about how bad his picks were in week 1.

I might start a little betting tab using the 'better record' algorithm and see how it does over the season.
UserPostedImage
15 years ago

Nonstopdrivel, thanks for your post. 13-3 is nothing to sniff at.

"Silentio" wrote:



so what *are* you sniffing at, then?

I agree with Twinkiegorilla.

bozz_2006 wrote:


Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Timmons" wrote:



You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.
UserPostedImage
zombieslayer
15 years ago

How do you pick the better team on the first week?

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



You don't. I myself have acknowledged the algorithm isn't always so efficacious for the first week or two. But the rules are simple. In case of a tie, pick the home team. Everyone starts the season at 0-0, so you pick the home team in every case, regardless of the perceived preseason strength of the team.

"Timmons" wrote:



Home teams last week were 8-7. That's better than what that wannabe expert said.

Funny thing - my old Sociology Prof was telling me that home teams in football win 66-70% of games. If you don't know a thing about football, can't even name all the teams, just pick the home team every time. You'll probably beat these sportswriters.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (1h) : The menu you expanded to log in, it's the first icon under "PackersHome" .. maybe i should add text to it
dfosterf (1h) : Feelin' pfowish can't find the sun. No big deal, will drag a laptop out when the time comes
Zero2Cool (2h) : if you're on mobile, open the menu and its the "sun" icon
dfosterf (2h) : Can't find the toggle, lol
dfosterf (2h) : I can find that the Microsoft lady rep for Titletown Tech is the philanthropy boss for the entire Microsoft corporation, but. .
Zero2Cool (2h) : There's a toggle for light/dark theme. Super easy.
dfosterf (2h) : The white background beta was hard to read, especially the quotes
dfosterf (3h) : Hopefully the color scheme remains the same
dfosterf (3h) : *Friday*
dfosterf (3h) : 100 million would be 539 million as of Fridsy
dfosterf (3h) : Heck, they could have taken a hundred milliion and invested in DAVE inc. last year (semi random, humor, but real)
dfosterf (3h) : Beer brat and ticket is where the money comes from
dfosterf (3h) : The 40th is Titletown Tech itself. This is a pet project of both Ed Policy and Mark Murphy
Zero2Cool (3h) : New site coming along nicely. The editor is better than what we have here. Oh yeah!
dfosterf (3h) : No profit that I know of. 0 for 40
dfosterf (3h) : The woke reference has to do with the makeup and oftentimes objectives of the companies they invested in
packerfanoutwest (3h) : beer and brats woke? say whom?
beast (3h) : I don't want to get into politics, but how is, beers and brats considered to be "woke"? Food is food...
beast (3h) : That being said, I'm not saying all 100% should be that way, but not surprised if majority are Wisconsin based
beast (3h) : And if everyone has heard of them, then it it probably has less growth potential and less community based
beast (3h) : Well isn't the investing person supposed to invest the money?
dfosterf (4h) : I swear if I were to discover that one of them has invented a virtue signalling transmitter I will not be surprised, lol
dfosterf (4h) : 39 companies so far that I bet no one has ever heard of.
dfosterf (4h) : -Not saying woke, but should- borderline philanthopist venture capital excercise
dfosterf (4h) : Well for one, they are pouring resources into Title Town Tech. Investing beer, brat, hot dog, ticket money into what is pretty much...
beast (10h) : Wow, 95% drop in investment revenue? Would be interesting to hear the details of why...
dfosterf (25-Jul) : It's my one day deal complaint dept. on shareholder meeting day
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Probably a homer access credential intimidation kinda thing
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Meathead "journalists" skip this, concentrating on operational revenue when convenient. They switch when net revenue is more favorable.
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Resulting in an actual drop of net revenue of 12.5%. She is from Minnesota. Just sayin'
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Any plans to hold Maureen Smith (CFO) accountable for a 95% drop in investment revenue?
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : In your face, HBO!
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @ByRyanWood Mark Murphy: “A great source of pride of mine is that we were never on Hard Knocks.”
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : *years
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @mattschneidman Mark Murphy says he anticipates “many Packers games” being played in Germany, Ireland and/or the U.K. over the next 5-10 yea
dfosterf (25-Jul) : *cafeteria* I have hit my head also, so I sympathize
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Possibly hit his head leaning into the glass protecting the food in the cafateria
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Maybe a low flying drone
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Did Savion Williams run into a goalpost or something?
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : also, no bueno when a guy starts getting concussions right off the bat in his career
Zero2Cool (25-Jul) : Concussion is worse. Banks probably vet off day via back booboo claim
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @AndyHermanNFL Jordy Nelson out at camp today. No word if he’s in play for one of the two open roster spots ; )
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Is that better or worse than Banks bad back?
Zero2Cool (25-Jul) : Savion concussion ... not good.
packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Aaron Rodgers’s first pass of first team period was picked off
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : tbh I didn't hear of his passing
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Cosby Show. Malcom Jamal Warner I think is real name
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : I was thinking of Ozzy and Hulk
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Who's Theo?
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : How is Theo alliteration?
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2025 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
COMMANDERS
Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
Browns
Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
Cardinals
Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
PANTHERS
Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
EAGLES
Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
Giants
Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
Bears
Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
RAVENS
Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
Vikings
Recent Topics
2h / Feedback, Suggestions and Issues / Zero2Cool

3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Jul / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

25-Jul / Around The NFL / beast

24-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

24-Jul / Around The NFL / beast

24-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

22-Jul / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.