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nerdmann
10 years ago

The Stats Lie

Only the 2nd time in NFL history that a game went without a punt.

Packers had seven drives, all of which ended with a score, except the blocked field goal of course.

Packers had the ball for just over 23 minutes.

Packers were out gained on the ground 56 yards to Bears 235 yards.

Bears were 63.6% on 3rd down conversions, Packers were just 50%.

Packers had 21 first downs to the Bears 33.

Packers had 47 plays to Bears 77 plays.


Yet, the Packers crush the Bears 38 to 17. [aiee]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



That's what turnovers will do. Add in time running out at the end of the half.

Trestman's offense is fundamentally sound. THAT, is what I bitch about all the time with Mike. Mike and Aaron can get away with this stat whoring bullshit, because Aaron is an elite QB. But almost every year in the playoffs, that bullshit comes home to roost.

You do the right thing ALL the time. You play the right way, ALL the time.

Fact is this team has a weakness, and that' the Dline. We all know it, and every week teams all over the league get more and more film of it. We've gotta do something about that. The offense does not appear willing to help the defense by burning clock and keeping them off the field.

We're not gonna be facing bullshit QBs in January.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago

Turnovers involve some luck. A stout defensive line that can consistently stop the run doesn't (or at least less luck is involved).

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I don't know that the Packers' SB team allowed many 500+ yard games, and 2011 isn't really a barometer for success because it was the preview to the problem the Packers currently have with teams such as the Seahawks, 49ers, and now maybe even the Lions.

I'm wavering a lot on this defense. Anyone can lay an egg, we saw that with the 49ers at Seattle last November. I certainly don't have much confidence in this defense, but they've been all over the map and I still can't tell if the 2nd half Jets/Detroit defense is what to expect, or if the Bears/Seahawks is more what we should expect with this team.

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Absolutely. CM3s pick was luck on his part. I have said it before I have seen corners beaten or out of position get a pick because the QB was so bad they missed the open receiver by 5 feet or more.
UserPostedImage
DoddPower
10 years ago

Absolutely. CM3s pick was luck on his part. I have said it before I have seen corners beaten or out of position get a pick because the QB was so bad they missed the open receiver by 5 feet or more.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.
dfosterf
10 years ago
We need better defense, specifically, heat on the QB. We all know it, the rest is wishful thinking. We also know we just need to give Aaron just a little time. It has not been a tough equation, in theory. we need to get there in reality.

musccy
10 years ago

The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



Luck may not be the right word. Tramon did make a good play on the ball, but in order for Tramon to make that play, Cutler had to miss that he had inside coverage or throw an errant pass. It's not luck that Cutler threw a bad pass, but we were dependent on his error to enable the opportunity.

I know it's what everyone would say but I want a defense that can contain the edge, play their assignment, get off blocks, clog a gap, etc. not rely on the opponent "shitting themselves" as nerdmann would say.
nerdmann
10 years ago

Luck may not be the right word. Tramon did make a good play on the ball, but in order for Tramon to make that play, Cutler had to miss that he had inside coverage or throw an errant pass. It's not luck that Cutler threw a bad pass, but we were dependent on his error to enable the opportunity.

I know it's what everyone would say but I want a defense that can contain the edge, play their assignment, get off blocks, clog a gap, etc. not rely on the opponent "sh*tting themselves" as nerdmann would say.

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Preparation, meeting opportunity.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
nerdmann
10 years ago

We need better defense, specifically, heat on the QB. We all know it, the rest is wishful thinking. We also know we just need to give Aaron just a little time. It has not been a tough equation, in theory. we need to get there in reality.

Originally Posted by: dfosterf 



Specifically, run defense.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago

The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



I know that as well as anyone else. Backs do a graet job defending the pass and defect balls all the time. How many tipped/deflected balls are there every week around the NFL? Most fall to the ground. How many tipped balls fly 10-15 yards back towards the LOS that are caught by a LBer? Practically none. The degree of luck on this particular play was over the 75% level.
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Dexter_Sinister
10 years ago

The Stats Lie

Only the 2nd time in NFL history that a game went without a punt.

Packers had seven drives, all of which ended with a score, except the blocked field goal of course.

Packers had the ball for just over 23 minutes.

Packers were out gained on the ground 56 yards to Bears 235 yards.

Bears were 63.6% on 3rd down conversions, Packers were just 50%.

Packers had 21 first downs to the Bears 33.

Packers had 47 plays to Bears 77 plays.


Yet, the Packers crush the Bears 38 to 17. [aiee]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


The numbers don't lie. But people's understanding of what correlates to winning is often flawed.

Per play the Packers were much more efficient. They only needed 47 plays to score 38 points. The Bears needed 77 plays to score 17 points. The Packers yards per play meant they didn't need as many plays to move the ball.

Yards and TOP mean nothing if the drives don't end in a score. Every failed drive, you might as well wipe out the yards and TOP.

The Bears failed to score on 5 of 8 drives. 1 on downs, 2 turnovers on first down and a goal line stop at the end of the half and at the end of the game.

The Packers only failed to convert one drive into points. They attempted 3 field goals and had one that was blocked, one that was a first down by penalty and one that was made. They did have a 3rd down converted by defensive penalty. I don't know how you can call that 4 of 8 on 3rd down. I would call it 5 of 8 or at least 4 of 7.

The whole story can be misrepresented by focusing on the wrong stat or trying to make a stat say something it doesn't. Like saying yards and TOP should lead to wins. They didn't lie. Saying they matter is the lie.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
nerdmann
10 years ago

I know that as well as anyone else. Backs do a graet job defending the pass and defect balls all the time. How many tipped/deflected balls are there every week around the NFL? Most fall to the ground. How many tipped balls fly 10-15 yards back towards the LOS that are caught by a LBer? Practically none. The degree of luck on this particular play was over the 75% level.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Those are patented moves, though.

Shields and Williams bait those QBs into those throws, then they close on the ball like that. Remember Bush's lifetime highlight INT in the SB? He saw that on film, and exploited it. That ain't luck.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Fan Shout
Mucky Tundra (6h) : Greg Gumbel passed away today after bout with cancer.
buckeyepackfan (11h) : 1 NFC South @ NFC West @ AFC West other 3 games,
buckeyepackfan (11h) : Packers play NFC East and AFC North in 2025, plus 2 other games
Mucky Tundra (12h) : Geeze Zero get it right!😋
Zero2Cool (14h) : I guess 3 games. Whatever
Zero2Cool (14h) : Bleh, that only impacts two games.
Zero2Cool (14h) : Packers are gonna get 3rd place division schedule next year.
Mucky Tundra (15h) : Kanata, seek help! lol
beast (17h) : I was rooting for the Bears to win and hurt their draft pick status
Zero2Cool (17h) : Forgot there was even a game last night haha
TheKanataThrilla (17h) : That was terrible.
TheKanataThrilla (17h) : Watching that game in its entirety yesterday is proof positive that I am a football addict.
beast (18h) : And horrible time management multiple times... and not being able to score more than 3 points on a team with talent
beast (18h) : Realizing the Bears didn't fix it from the previous week and do the same thing, getting the game to overtime
beast (18h) : They probably are not tanking, but they've absolutely mismanagement some things, such as Vikings seeing the Packers blocked FG and realizing
Zero2Cool (19h) : Crazy of Bears to have that mindset that is
Zero2Cool (19h) : Hail Mary stop away from 5 - 2. Not sure how that flips to tanking. Crazy mindset if true
beast (19h) : I've quietly questioned if Bears are tanking on purpose... they suddenly got a lot worse with some simple concepts like 101 clock management
wpr (22h) : Watching bares fans melt down over how putrid their team is, so enjoyable. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
Mucky Tundra (27-Dec) : The Seattle Seahawks defeat the Chicago Bears 6-3. Jason Myers had 6 RBIs for Seattle while Cairo Santos had 3 RBI for Chicago
beast (27-Dec) : Not nessarily, he might of been injured either way. He's playing about 50% of the games the last 4 years
Zero2Cool (26-Dec) : If they'd been more patient with him, he'd be back already. Putting him out there vs Bears caused him to tweak it and here we are.
packerfanoutwest (26-Dec) : well this is his last season with the PAck, book it
beast (26-Dec) : Sounds like no Alexander (again), I'm wondering if his time with the Packers is done
Zero2Cool (26-Dec) : Could ban beast and I still don't think anyone catches him.
Mucky Tundra (26-Dec) : Houston getting dog walked by Baltimore
packerfanoutwest (25-Dec) : Feliz Navidad!
Zero2Cool (25-Dec) : Merry Christmas!
beast (25-Dec) : Merry Christmas 🎄🎁
beast (24-Dec) : Sounds like no serious injuries from the Saints game and Jacobs and Watson should play in the Vikings game
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : both games Watson missed, Packers won
Martha Careful (24-Dec) : I hope all of you have a Merry Christmas!
Mucky Tundra (24-Dec) : Oh I know about Jacobs, I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to mimic Zero lol
buckeyepackfan (24-Dec) : Jacobs was just sat down, Watson re-injured that knee that kept him out 1 game earlier
buckeyepackfan (24-Dec) : I needed .14 that's. .14 points for the whole 4th quarter to win and go to the SB. Lol
Mucky Tundra (24-Dec) : Jacobs gonna be OK???
Zero2Cool (24-Dec) : Watson gonna be OK???
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : Inactives tonight for the Pack: Alexander- knee Bullard - ankle Williams - quad Walker -ankle Monk Heath
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : No Jaire, but hopefully the front 7 destroys the line of scrimmage & forces Rattler into a few passes to McKinney.
packerfanoutwest (24-Dec) : minny could be #1 seed and the Lions #5 seed
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : We'd have same Division and Conference records. Strength of schedule we edge them
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I just checked. What tie breaker?
bboystyle (23-Dec) : yes its possible but unlikely. If we do get the 5th, we face the NFCS winner
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Ahh, ok.
bboystyle (23-Dec) : yes due to tie breaker
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I mean, unlikely, yes, but mathematically, 5th is possible by what I'm reading.
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : If Vikings lose out, Packers win out, Packers get 5th, right?
bboystyle (23-Dec) : Minny isnt going to lose out so 5th seed is out of the equation. We are playing for the 6th or 7th seed which makes no difference
Mucky Tundra (23-Dec) : beast, the ad revenue goes to the broadcast company but they gotta pay to air the game on their channel/network
beast (23-Dec) : If we win tonight the game is still relative in terms of 5th, 6th or 7th seed... win and it's 5th or 6th, lose and it's 6th or 7th
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