nerdmann
10 years ago

The Stats Lie

Only the 2nd time in NFL history that a game went without a punt.

Packers had seven drives, all of which ended with a score, except the blocked field goal of course.

Packers had the ball for just over 23 minutes.

Packers were out gained on the ground 56 yards to Bears 235 yards.

Bears were 63.6% on 3rd down conversions, Packers were just 50%.

Packers had 21 first downs to the Bears 33.

Packers had 47 plays to Bears 77 plays.


Yet, the Packers crush the Bears 38 to 17. [aiee]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



That's what turnovers will do. Add in time running out at the end of the half.

Trestman's offense is fundamentally sound. THAT, is what I bitch about all the time with Mike. Mike and Aaron can get away with this stat whoring bullshit, because Aaron is an elite QB. But almost every year in the playoffs, that bullshit comes home to roost.

You do the right thing ALL the time. You play the right way, ALL the time.

Fact is this team has a weakness, and that' the Dline. We all know it, and every week teams all over the league get more and more film of it. We've gotta do something about that. The offense does not appear willing to help the defense by burning clock and keeping them off the field.

We're not gonna be facing bullshit QBs in January.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago

Turnovers involve some luck. A stout defensive line that can consistently stop the run doesn't (or at least less luck is involved).

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I don't know that the Packers' SB team allowed many 500+ yard games, and 2011 isn't really a barometer for success because it was the preview to the problem the Packers currently have with teams such as the Seahawks, 49ers, and now maybe even the Lions.

I'm wavering a lot on this defense. Anyone can lay an egg, we saw that with the 49ers at Seattle last November. I certainly don't have much confidence in this defense, but they've been all over the map and I still can't tell if the 2nd half Jets/Detroit defense is what to expect, or if the Bears/Seahawks is more what we should expect with this team.

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Absolutely. CM3s pick was luck on his part. I have said it before I have seen corners beaten or out of position get a pick because the QB was so bad they missed the open receiver by 5 feet or more.
UserPostedImage
DoddPower
10 years ago

Absolutely. CM3s pick was luck on his part. I have said it before I have seen corners beaten or out of position get a pick because the QB was so bad they missed the open receiver by 5 feet or more.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.
dfosterf
10 years ago
We need better defense, specifically, heat on the QB. We all know it, the rest is wishful thinking. We also know we just need to give Aaron just a little time. It has not been a tough equation, in theory. we need to get there in reality.

musccy
10 years ago

The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



Luck may not be the right word. Tramon did make a good play on the ball, but in order for Tramon to make that play, Cutler had to miss that he had inside coverage or throw an errant pass. It's not luck that Cutler threw a bad pass, but we were dependent on his error to enable the opportunity.

I know it's what everyone would say but I want a defense that can contain the edge, play their assignment, get off blocks, clog a gap, etc. not rely on the opponent "shitting themselves" as nerdmann would say.
nerdmann
10 years ago

Luck may not be the right word. Tramon did make a good play on the ball, but in order for Tramon to make that play, Cutler had to miss that he had inside coverage or throw an errant pass. It's not luck that Cutler threw a bad pass, but we were dependent on his error to enable the opportunity.

I know it's what everyone would say but I want a defense that can contain the edge, play their assignment, get off blocks, clog a gap, etc. not rely on the opponent "sh*tting themselves" as nerdmann would say.

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Preparation, meeting opportunity.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
nerdmann
10 years ago

We need better defense, specifically, heat on the QB. We all know it, the rest is wishful thinking. We also know we just need to give Aaron just a little time. It has not been a tough equation, in theory. we need to get there in reality.

Originally Posted by: dfosterf 



Specifically, run defense.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago

The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



I know that as well as anyone else. Backs do a graet job defending the pass and defect balls all the time. How many tipped/deflected balls are there every week around the NFL? Most fall to the ground. How many tipped balls fly 10-15 yards back towards the LOS that are caught by a LBer? Practically none. The degree of luck on this particular play was over the 75% level.
UserPostedImage
Dexter_Sinister
10 years ago

The Stats Lie

Only the 2nd time in NFL history that a game went without a punt.

Packers had seven drives, all of which ended with a score, except the blocked field goal of course.

Packers had the ball for just over 23 minutes.

Packers were out gained on the ground 56 yards to Bears 235 yards.

Bears were 63.6% on 3rd down conversions, Packers were just 50%.

Packers had 21 first downs to the Bears 33.

Packers had 47 plays to Bears 77 plays.


Yet, the Packers crush the Bears 38 to 17. [aiee]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


The numbers don't lie. But people's understanding of what correlates to winning is often flawed.

Per play the Packers were much more efficient. They only needed 47 plays to score 38 points. The Bears needed 77 plays to score 17 points. The Packers yards per play meant they didn't need as many plays to move the ball.

Yards and TOP mean nothing if the drives don't end in a score. Every failed drive, you might as well wipe out the yards and TOP.

The Bears failed to score on 5 of 8 drives. 1 on downs, 2 turnovers on first down and a goal line stop at the end of the half and at the end of the game.

The Packers only failed to convert one drive into points. They attempted 3 field goals and had one that was blocked, one that was a first down by penalty and one that was made. They did have a 3rd down converted by defensive penalty. I don't know how you can call that 4 of 8 on 3rd down. I would call it 5 of 8 or at least 4 of 7.

The whole story can be misrepresented by focusing on the wrong stat or trying to make a stat say something it doesn't. Like saying yards and TOP should lead to wins. They didn't lie. Saying they matter is the lie.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
nerdmann
10 years ago

I know that as well as anyone else. Backs do a graet job defending the pass and defect balls all the time. How many tipped/deflected balls are there every week around the NFL? Most fall to the ground. How many tipped balls fly 10-15 yards back towards the LOS that are caught by a LBer? Practically none. The degree of luck on this particular play was over the 75% level.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Those are patented moves, though.

Shields and Williams bait those QBs into those throws, then they close on the ball like that. Remember Bush's lifetime highlight INT in the SB? He saw that on film, and exploited it. That ain't luck.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
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packerfanoutwest (9h) : Packers General Manager Brian Gutekunst says Green Bay’s roster can win, even without adding anyone in the draft.
Zero2Cool (10h) : It's a poor design. New site has SignalR like our gameday chat
wpr (10h) : Ah today's Shout was very quick to post.
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Zero2Cool (11h) : Who? What?
beast (20h) : What is he supposed to say? He doesn't want players currently on the team?
Martha Careful (21-Apr) : meh
Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : Sounds like Walker and Wyatt will be with Packers for beyond 2026
Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : It's so awesome.
Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : new site fan shout post fast
wpr (21-Apr) : Slow posting in Fan shout.
wpr (21-Apr) : Only 4
wpr (21-Apr) : Only 4
Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : If only we had a topic to read about and discuss it. That's something new website must have!!!
dfosterf (21-Apr) : Justice Musqueda over at Acme Packing put up an excellent synopsis of the Packers 1st round options this am
wpr (19-Apr) : 5 days
beast (18-Apr) : 6 days
wpr (17-Apr) : 7 days
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : sounds like Packers don't get good compensation, Jaire staying
dfosterf (16-Apr) : Nobody coming up with a keep, but at x amount
dfosterf (16-Apr) : Trade, cut or keep
dfosterf (16-Apr) : that from Jaire
dfosterf (16-Apr) : My guess is the Packers floated the concept of a reworked contract via his agent and agent got a f'
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : Yes, and that is why I think Rob worded it how he did. Rather than say "agent"
dfosterf (16-Apr) : Same laws apply. Agent must present such an offer to Jaire. Cannot accept or reject without presenting it
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : I'm thinking that is why Rob worded it how he did.
dfosterf (16-Apr) : The Packers can certainly still make the offer to the agent
dfosterf (16-Apr) : Laws of agency and definition of fiduciary responsibility
dfosterf (16-Apr) : Jaire is open to a reduced contract without Jaire's permission
dfosterf (16-Apr) : The agent would arguably violate the law if he were to tell the Packers
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : That someone ... likely the agent.
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : So, Jaire has not been offered nor rejected a pay reduction, but someone says he'd decline.
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : Demovksy says t was direct communication with someone familiar with Jaire’s line of thinking at that moment.
Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : Demovsky just replied to me a bit ago. Jaire hasn't said it.
dfosterf (16-Apr) : Of course, that depends on the definition of "we"
dfosterf (16-Apr) : We have been told that they haven't because he wouldn't accept it. I submit we don't know that
dfosterf (16-Apr) : What is the downside in making a calculated reduced offer to Jaire?
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : Packers are receiving interest in Jaire Alexander but a trade is not imminent
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : Jalen Ramsey wants to be traded. He's never happy is he?
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : two 1sts in 2022 and two 2nd's in 2023 and 2024
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : Packers had fortunate last three drafts.
dfosterf (15-Apr) : I may have to move
dfosterf (15-Apr) : My wife just told the ancient Japanese sushi dude not enough rice under his fish
Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : I think a dozen is what I need
dfosterf (14-Apr) : Go fund me for this purpose just might work. A dozen nurses show up at 1265 to provide mental health assistance.
dfosterf (14-Apr) : Maybe send a crew of Angels to the Packers draft room on draft day.
Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : I am the Angel that gets visited.
dfosterf (14-Apr) : Visiting Angels has a pretty good reputation
Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : what
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