zombieslayer
13 years ago

In order to get a statistically relevant comparison, they need to come up with a ground game rating that is analogous to the passer rating system.

It needs to combine YPC, TD% and turnover %.

They you could calculate the differential and rank teams accordingly. Then check with teams post season records and identify the correlation.

You also can check the passer rating differential and see if there is a direct correlation between the differentials.

My guess is that it will be somewhat random with better teams trending towards being better at everything. But it will be nothing like the success rate of PRD leaders.

That will tell if running well and stopping the run is obviously connected to success.

Like how obvious PRD is. My guess is that PRD is 3-4 times more relevant to success than GGRD.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



I'd go with 3-4 times for PRD vs GGRD. That sounds about right.

Now if only I can get a million dollars and a government grant so I could hire some Sociology Grad students to do the research for me to prove you and me right.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
macbob
13 years ago

The article also debunks the myth that the run sets up the pass.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



No, it doesn't do that at all. The article does not address the causation of whether attempting to run the ball sets up the pass. The article addresses the correlation between passing efficiency and running efficiency (yards/attempt). It does not address the correlation between passing efficiency and rushing attempts. The yards/attempt doesn't show how much a team runs the ball, just how good they are at it when they do run.

And there is nothing in that article that examines the CAUSATION of whether or not running increases pass efficiency. As Burke notes on page one of the article--where he's discussing the fact that running attempts correlates (much) higher to wins than pass attempts (which actually correlate out negatively)--that the statistics can measure the correlation, but it can't determine the direction of causation.

In other words, WHY are those teams more efficient at passing? Are teams that are more balanced in their attack more efficient at passing than teams that are one dimensional?

Break Break

Burke also makes the assertion "Teams that are ahead, and likely to win, run the ball to take time off the clock and to minimize the risk of a turnover. Teams that are behind, and likely to lose, abandon the run in favor of the pass" without assessing the impact of that tendency on statistics.

http://packershome.com/tabid/63/g/posts/t/12224/Passing-is-fancy-but-doesnt-mean-playoffs.aspx  ) we had looked back over the previous 18 years of the Packers (Holmgren/Rhodes/Sherman/McCarthy) and compared rush attempts per quarter. This was a period of significant success for the Packers, with numerous games where they were comfortably ahead.

Here's quoting from that thread:

Over the 18 years we had 7758 rushing attempts. We ran the ball very evenly across the first 3 quarters. The 4th quarter the runs spiked up by around 300 attempts. So there is validity to the argument that coaches run more at the end of the game to run out the clock. The statistical impact though was extremely small. Keep in mind that the 300 carries was spread out over 288 games. Averaged out the 4th quarter at 7.59 carries per game averaged only 1 carry more per game than the first three quarters.



Another interesting thread from back then was:

http://packershome.com/tabid/63/g/posts/t/11263/Holmgren-Sherman-McCarthy-PassRun-analysis.aspx 

This thread looked at the run/pass ratios of Holmgren/Sherman/McCarthy when ahead, tied, behind, etc, with some interesting insights.
Fan Shout
packerfanoutwest (42m) : Matt LaFleur: “Highly unlikely” Jordan Love plays more this preseason
dfosterf (2h) : Doubs, Savion Williams, LVN, Musgrave all banged up to one degree or another, missing one here I forget
Zero2Cool (3h) : RB Tyrion Davis-Price is signing with the Green Bay Packers.
Zero2Cool (3h) : zero help, dominated. preseason
beast (4h) : QB Jordan Love has surgery
beast (4h) : Martha said Morgan had a lot of help, I didn't watch the OL so I can't say.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers LT Jordan Morgan did not allow a single pressure across 23 pass-blocking snaps vs. Jets last night, per PFF
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : With buckeye and the reasonable couple, we're currently sitting at 10
buckeyepackfan (10-Aug) : Just posted to re-up on our FFL.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : If healthy after, then thats all I care. Well, no drops would be nice
wpr (10-Aug) : I made it through the 1st Q.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Just gotta figure out how.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Could have been a worse start, so there is that.
beast (10-Aug) : Yeah, someone tell the Packers football season has started, seems like they weren't ready for it
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : Sooooooo many penalties
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : It may only be preseason, but this game is a trip to the dentist
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do bad -- FREAK OUT!!!!!!
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do good -- eh only preseason
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Well that half was fun
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Great, zayne is down
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : 13 minutes away from kickkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkoffff
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Had Celebration of Life for my uncle up north. wicked rain hope it dont come south
Mucky Tundra (9-Aug) : THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ARE PLAYING FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!!!!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!!
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Woo-hoo
TheKanataThrilla (9-Aug) : NFL Network is broadcasting the game tonight, but not in Canada. Not sure why as no local television is showing the game.
beast (8-Aug) : But the Return from IR designations had to be applied by the 53 man cutdown.
beast (8-Aug) : It's a new rule, so it's not clear, but my understanding was that they could be IR'd at any time
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : *had to be IRed at 53
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : beast, I thought the designate return from IR players had to be IR at cutdowns to 53, not before
beast (8-Aug) : It's a brand new rule, either last season or this season, prior, all pre-season IRs were done for the season
beast (8-Aug) : But the Packers would have to use one for their return from IR spots on him, when they cut down to 53.
beast (8-Aug) : I think the NFL recently changed the IR rules, so maybe the season might not be over for OL Glover.
Zero2Cool (8-Aug) : Packers star Howton, first NFLPA prez, dies at 95 😔
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Apparently it is too complicated for several to follow your simple instructions, but I digress
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Zero- Did you see what I posted about Voice of Reason and his wife? She posted over at fleaflicker that they are both "In"
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : Well, not crazy, it makes sense. Crazy I didn't notice/find it earlier
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : it's crazy how one stored procedure to get data bogged everything down for speed here
dfosterf (7-Aug) : to herd cats or goldfish without a bowl. They reminded me of the annual assembly of our fantasy league
dfosterf (7-Aug) : out on a field trip, outfitting them with little yellow smocks. Most of the little folk were well behaved, but several were like trying
dfosterf (7-Aug) : Yesterday my wife and I spent the afternoon on the waterfront here in Alexandria, Va. A daycare company took about 15 three/four year olds
wpr (7-Aug) : seems faster. yay
dfosterf (7-Aug) : Wife of reason posted on the in/out thread on fleaflicker that both she and vor are in
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : This page was generated in 0.135 seconds.
Mucky Tundra (7-Aug) : Tbh, I can never tell the difference in speed unless it's completely shitting the bed
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : Sure does feel like site is more snappy
Zero2Cool (6-Aug) : I thought that was the Lions OL
Mucky Tundra (6-Aug) : Travis Glover placed on IR; seasons over for him
Zero2Cool (6-Aug) : found bad sql in database, maybe site faster now?
dfosterf (5-Aug) : I'm going to call that a good move.
Zero2Cool (4-Aug) : Packers sign CB Corey Ballentine
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2025 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
COMMANDERS
Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
Browns
Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
Cardinals
Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
PANTHERS
Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
EAGLES
Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
Giants
Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
Bears
Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
RAVENS
Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
Vikings
Recent Topics
27m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

4h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

4h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

4h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

9h / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

22h / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

11-Aug / Around The NFL / Martha Careful

11-Aug / Around The NFL / packerfanoutwest

10-Aug / Fantasy Sports Talk / buckeyepackfan

10-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

10-Aug / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

10-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

8-Aug / Around The NFL / Zero2Cool

8-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.