13 years ago

Monday was my birthday and after a little good cheer I was not ready to waste my time with sleep. Look at the time of the original post.

The phrasing was inadequate and lazily I attempted to use commas to help clarify rather than rewriting the sentence.

I apologize for that.

It was disrespectful to Packers Home members to attempt to laugh it off the next morning. I apologize for not upholding the high gramatical standards of Packers Home.

Originally Posted by: CaliforniaCheez 



UserPostedImage

I agree with Twinkiegorilla.

bozz_2006 wrote:


Zero2Cool
13 years ago

Monday was my birthday and after a little good cheer I was not ready to waste my time with sleep. Look at the time of the original post.

The phrasing was inadequate and lazily I attempted to use commas to help clarify rather than rewriting the sentence.

I apologize for that.

It was disrespectful to Packers Home members to attempt to laugh it off the next morning. I apologize for not upholding the high gramatical standards of Packers Home.

Originally Posted by: CaliforniaCheez 



I find it very insulting you can't even concatenate Packers Home to properly reflect the sites name, PackersHome. You sir, will now pay double the membership fee!

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macbob
13 years ago

Indeed, the correlation will never be perfect. But it is certainly amazingly high.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



'Amazingly high' is a bit strong for me. I have always found this statistic to be kind of a 'well, duh' statistic...

Those teams who pass well and who stop the other team from passing well, do well.

Well, duh... 🤷


The differential stat combines both a defensive and an offensive element. We had a discussion on this (and other stats) back around Jan, and looked at the individual components (D, Passer rating, Turnovers, etc):

http://packershome.com/tabid/63/g/posts/t/12224/Passing-is-fancy-but-doesnt-mean-playoffs.aspx 

#1 factor/predictor was Elite D, followed by Passer Rating (Elite QB) and Turnover Differential.
zombieslayer
13 years ago

'Amazingly high' is a bit strong for me. I have always found this statistic to be kind of a 'well, duh' statistic...

Those teams who pass well and who stop the other team from passing well, do well.

Well, duh... 🤷


The differential stat combines both a defensive and an offensive element. We had a discussion on this (and other stats) back around Jan, and looked at the individual components (D, Passer rating, Turnovers, etc):

http://packershome.com/tabid/63/g/posts/t/12224/Passing-is-fancy-but-doesnt-mean-playoffs.aspx 

#1 factor/predictor was Elite D, followed by Passer Rating (Elite QB) and Turnover Differential.

Originally Posted by: macbob 



Maybe we need to revisit these stats. It looks like passer rating differential > elite D now.
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Rockmolder
13 years ago
This is such a kicking-in-an-open-door stat.

I mean, what it really tells you is that the team that has a good offense and a good defense is most often the best team in the league?

It doesn't factor in rushing, but rushing, at this day and age, is mostly helpful in setting up the pass. And a lack of a rushing game makes a team one dimensional, which hurts the passing game. So both stopping the run and being able to run it on offense factor in pretty heavily, as well.

When you rank good in offensive passer rating it's because you throw for a lot of yards, a lot of TDs and not a lot of interceptions, most likely aided by a somewhat decent rushing attack.

When you rank good in defensive passer rating you're most likely forcing some turnovers, keeping the other team down in yards, not letting them throw a lot of TDs and you're not letting their RB run wild, which means few chances to go deep off of play-action.

That's as close to saying "The team that scored the most points today" as it gets.
Greg C.
13 years ago

This is such a kicking-in-an-open-door stat.

I mean, what it really tells you is that the team that has a good offense and a good defense is most often the best team in the league?

It doesn't factor in rushing, but rushing, at this day and age, is mostly helpful in setting up the pass. And a lack of a rushing game makes a team one dimensional, which hurts the passing game. So both stopping the run and being able to run it on offense factor in pretty heavily, as well.

When you rank good in offensive passer rating it's because you throw for a lot of yards, a lot of TDs and not a lot of interceptions, most likely aided by a somewhat decent rushing attack.

When you rank good in defensive passer rating you're most likely forcing some turnovers, keeping the other team down in yards, not letting them throw a lot of TDs and you're not letting their RB run wild, which means few chances to go deep off of play-action.

That's as close to saying "The team that scored the most points today" as it gets.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 


Very true. That's why I would like to see this stat compared with win-loss record and point differential as a predictor of playoff success. Last year, passer rating differential came out smelling like a rose, as it suggested that a 10-6 team that barely made the playoffs was actually the best team in the league, and that team then went on to win the Super Bowl. I would like to know if this was part of a pattern or just an exception.
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wpr
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  • Preferred Member
13 years ago


That's as close to saying "The team that scored the most points today" as it gets.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Zombie has advocated that unproven, untested theorem for years. [duh] [grin1]
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azrunning
13 years ago

It doesn't factor in rushing, but rushing, at this day and age, is mostly helpful in setting up the pass. And a lack of a rushing game makes a team one dimensional, which hurts the passing game. So both stopping the run and being able to run it on offense factor in pretty heavily, as well.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



This 4 part statistical analysis debunks the rushing-to-set-up-the-pass theory. But you have to get to part 4 for that information. Article 
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zombieslayer
13 years ago

This 4 part statistical analysis debunks the rushing-to-set-up-the-pass theory. But you have to get to part 4 for that information. Article 

Originally Posted by: azrunning 



Good find AZ.

From the article:

A good passing game is far more important than a good running game in the NFL. It’s at least twice as important, and probably even more so. If we include interceptions as part of the passing game, passing efficiency and interception rates dwarf the importance of running efficiency by a factor of 4 to 1.



The article also debunks the myth that the run sets up the pass. Hate to break it to those of you who think that the run sets up the pass, but the Easter Bunny isn't real. Santa isn't either. Yes, I'm serious. Neither are real.

For us, the pass sets up the run. As it does for the Saints. As it does for the Patriots, but the Patriots keep bombing in the Playoffs. That last point may be due to 🇦🇷 > Brady though. 🤔

Regardless, I wish I had more time to research. All the research I've done on elite D's being the #1 stat of all to win the SB is about to be debunked by this stat - passer rating differential. And I'm glad, because it's something I've wanted to believe all along - the key to winning is outpassing (accuracy, not yards) your opponent.
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Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago
In order to get a statistically relevant comparison, they need to come up with a ground game rating that is analogous to the passer rating system.

It needs to combine YPC, TD% and turnover %.

They you could calculate the differential and rank teams accordingly. Then check with teams post season records and identify the correlation.

You also can check the passer rating differential and see if there is a direct correlation between the differentials.

My guess is that it will be somewhat random with better teams trending towards being better at everything. But it will be nothing like the success rate of PRD leaders.

That will tell if running well and stopping the run is obviously connected to success.

Like how obvious PRD is. My guess is that PRD is 3-4 times more relevant to success than GGRD.
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