zombieslayer
13 years ago

In order to get a statistically relevant comparison, they need to come up with a ground game rating that is analogous to the passer rating system.

It needs to combine YPC, TD% and turnover %.

They you could calculate the differential and rank teams accordingly. Then check with teams post season records and identify the correlation.

You also can check the passer rating differential and see if there is a direct correlation between the differentials.

My guess is that it will be somewhat random with better teams trending towards being better at everything. But it will be nothing like the success rate of PRD leaders.

That will tell if running well and stopping the run is obviously connected to success.

Like how obvious PRD is. My guess is that PRD is 3-4 times more relevant to success than GGRD.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



I'd go with 3-4 times for PRD vs GGRD. That sounds about right.

Now if only I can get a million dollars and a government grant so I could hire some Sociology Grad students to do the research for me to prove you and me right.
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macbob
13 years ago

The article also debunks the myth that the run sets up the pass.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



No, it doesn't do that at all. The article does not address the causation of whether attempting to run the ball sets up the pass. The article addresses the correlation between passing efficiency and running efficiency (yards/attempt). It does not address the correlation between passing efficiency and rushing attempts. The yards/attempt doesn't show how much a team runs the ball, just how good they are at it when they do run.

And there is nothing in that article that examines the CAUSATION of whether or not running increases pass efficiency. As Burke notes on page one of the article--where he's discussing the fact that running attempts correlates (much) higher to wins than pass attempts (which actually correlate out negatively)--that the statistics can measure the correlation, but it can't determine the direction of causation.

In other words, WHY are those teams more efficient at passing? Are teams that are more balanced in their attack more efficient at passing than teams that are one dimensional?

Break Break

Burke also makes the assertion "Teams that are ahead, and likely to win, run the ball to take time off the clock and to minimize the risk of a turnover. Teams that are behind, and likely to lose, abandon the run in favor of the pass" without assessing the impact of that tendency on statistics.

http://packershome.com/tabid/63/g/posts/t/12224/Passing-is-fancy-but-doesnt-mean-playoffs.aspx  ) we had looked back over the previous 18 years of the Packers (Holmgren/Rhodes/Sherman/McCarthy) and compared rush attempts per quarter. This was a period of significant success for the Packers, with numerous games where they were comfortably ahead.

Here's quoting from that thread:

Over the 18 years we had 7758 rushing attempts. We ran the ball very evenly across the first 3 quarters. The 4th quarter the runs spiked up by around 300 attempts. So there is validity to the argument that coaches run more at the end of the game to run out the clock. The statistical impact though was extremely small. Keep in mind that the 300 carries was spread out over 288 games. Averaged out the 4th quarter at 7.59 carries per game averaged only 1 carry more per game than the first three quarters.



Another interesting thread from back then was:

http://packershome.com/tabid/63/g/posts/t/11263/Holmgren-Sherman-McCarthy-PassRun-analysis.aspx 

This thread looked at the run/pass ratios of Holmgren/Sherman/McCarthy when ahead, tied, behind, etc, with some interesting insights.
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