Numbers are lost in translation
Rodgers' statistics are impressive, but playing poor teams has helped
By Rob Reischel
Green Bay It's a safe bet that fantasy football owners everywhere love Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers quarterback is fifth in the NFL in touchdown passes (14), sixth in passing yards (1,989) and has just two interceptions.
While Rodgers might be winning games for fantasy owners, he's not posting any big wins for the Packers. And right now, he's quickly gaining a reputation for being a stats guy but not a winning quarterback.
In 23 starts, Rodgers has compiled a disappointing 10-13 record (.435). And good luck finding a signature win, as only two of Rodgers' victories have come against teams with a winning record when they played Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the consistent theme in Rodgers' losses has been mediocre performances early on.
In some of those games, Rodgers and the offense played better in the second half - such as Green Bay's 38-26 loss to Minnesota on Sunday.
But often, those offensive woes have left the Packers too big of a hole to escape. Rodgers' final numbers have then wound up inflated because opposing defenses are content allowing time to run while Rodgers & Co. pad their stats.
The only victories he has against plus-.500 teams came in 2008 vs. Chicago (5-4) and Indianapolis (3-2). And six of Rodgers' 10 wins have come against Detroit, Seattle, Cleveland and St. Louis - a trio that's a combined 14-79 since the start of last season.
"He's a good football player, but it's a team game," Packer coach Mike McCarthy said of Rodgers.
"It's about wins and losses and the ability to pull it all together. You look at everything that evolves around your football team, and Aaron is part of the solution. There is no doubt about it. He is definitely one of the positives, but he has things he needs to work on too, just like every member of our football team."
One of those is starting faster.
In Green Bay's three losses this year, Rodgers has gone 25 of 44 for 304 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the first half.
That's a passer rating of 83.9, which certainly isn't a bad number, but it's also nowhere near Rodgers' NFL-leading mark of 110.4.
In the second half of those losses, Rodgers is 48 for 73 for 628 yards, four touchdown and no interceptions. That's a passer rating of 111.0.
The greatest discrepancy in Rodgers' performance came in the latest loss to the Vikings. Rodgers had a miserable first half, going 5 of 11 for 38 yards with no touchdowns and a 54.4 passer rating.
Overall, Green Bay managed just 47 net yards in the half, its fewest since a 31-10 loss in Denver on Oct. 17, 1999. Not surprisingly, the Packers were in a 17-3 hole to the Vikings.
"We weren't in a rhythm," Rodgers said of Green Bay's first half struggles. "I think that's the first thing. That was due to a lack of execution.
"I was a little bit off in the first half and we were struggling with the field position battle a little bit, too. . . . We didn't really get the momentum back until the third quarter."
Rodgers and the Packers did get rolling after halftime. In fact, Green Bay scored on four straight possessions - three touchdowns and one field goal - to close within 31-26.
The Packers abandoned their putrid rushing game and let Rodgers wing it around the field against Minnesota's overmatched secondary.
Rodgers had a second half passer rating of 128.3 after completing 21 of 30 for 249 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
"I started hitting guys that were open," Rodgers said. "The first half I struggled, missed a couple throws I should have hit. When we get into a rhythm on offense, we're tough to stop."
A major knock on Rodgers, though, is that he hasn't delivered at the most critical times.
Rodgers went 0-7 in games decided by four points or less in 2008. And eight different times last year, Rodgers had a chance to pull out a game in the final five minutes and failed in each instance.
This year, Rodgers briefly quieted those naysayers when he threw a 50-yard, game-winning touchdown to Greg Jennings in a 21-15 season-opening win over Chicago. And midway through the fourth quarter of Sunday's game with Minnesota, Rodgers had a chance for a career-defining drive.
Trailing, 31-26, with 8:13 left, Rodgers and the Packers took over at their own 19. Just two plays later, the Packers had marched to Minnesota's 28.
But on second and 3, Rodgers took his sixth sack of the game, losing five yards on the play. Rodgers then threw incomplete on third down, and Mason Crosby proceeded to miss a 51-yard field goal.
Brett Favre and the Vikings reclaimed the ball - and quickly regained all momentum.
On Minnesota's first play, Favre hit Adrian Peterson for 44 yards on a screen pass. Then two plays later, Favre hummed a 16-yard touchdown pass to Bernard Berrian.
Ball game.
"I hate losing to whoever's at quarterback for them," Rodgers said. "I hate losing to the Vikings, especially. (They're) division rivals (and we) don't like those (losses) at home.
"We just could not keep that momentum and could not finish off the drive we had to take the lead, so that was disappointing. It doesn't matter who you play, though, it's tough to lose."