British
15 years ago
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-Daily-Jolts-week-2-picks.html 

I found this pretty funny. And encouraging.

The Id Like Half My Winnings In Cash And Half In Suitcases To Carry The Cash Easy Money Game of the Week

GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati

Packers bloggers an excitable lot by nature are absolutely terrified by this game, which is just adorable. Theyre like the excitable townspeople in a Mark Twain story My god, if the Bengals can almost beat the Broncos, imagine what theyll do on the road against a legitimate Super Bowl contender!


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Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

The problem with sportswriters' picks is that most writers are incorrigible bandwagon jumpers (they can't help themselves), meaning they're short-sighted and get distracted by short-term variations and anomalies (i.e., they believe in "hot" and "cold" streaks); and even worse, they want to make a splash by being the one to have prognosticated that improbable pick that stuns everyone. As successful -- that is to say, experienced -- bettors and investors know, however, "The Trend is Your Friend." They don't become overly excited by short-term aberrations because they know that in the end, everything regresses toward the mean. My algorithm, while certainly not sophisticated and unable to take into consideration factors unique to specific games or predict the unpredictable, at least strips all emotion and sensationalism from the picking process . . . and is therefore, considering how simplistic it is, remarkably successful.
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bozz_2006
15 years ago
+1 for the algorithm!
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Silentio
15 years ago
Nonstopdrivel, thanks for your post. 13-3 is nothing to sniff at.
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dfosterf
15 years ago
Ray Gustini is a snot-nosed arrogant little prick that is the weak link at NFP.

I believe he attended the UW or some-such. He has made fun of the Packer fans, Wisconsinites, Lambeau field and other such condescending bullshit.

I would like to tell you that I plan to tell him just how I feel about him, but instead I will give you some better news.

I already did. They published it too. Many of my fellow old geezer "members" there agreed with me, including several that root for our opponent's teams.

It is mostly a generational thing, I readily admit. The little f#ck has strong appeal to many of his full of themselves snot-noses.

At least I admit I'm full of myself, I just hate it when others do not...Plus I'm old and curmudgeonly, so I got that going for me...

:thumbleft:
DakotaT
15 years ago

Ray Gustini is a snot-nosed arrogant little prick that is the weak link at NFP.

I believe he attended the UW or some-such. He has made fun of the Packer fans, Wisconsinites, Lambeau field and other such condescending bullshit.

I would like to tell you that I plan to tell him just how I feel about him, but instead I will give you some better news.

I already did. They published it too. Many of my fellow old geezer "members" there agreed with me, including several that root for our opponent's teams.

It is mostly a generational thing, I readily admit. The little f#ck has strong appeal to many of his full of themselves snot-noses.

At least I admit I'm full of myself, I just hate it when others do not...Plus I'm old and curmudgeonly, so I got that going for me...

:thumbleft:

"dfosterf" wrote:




So much here to work with, but because it's my birthday today, I will avoid confrontation. But I'll match you, and admit that I'm a snotnose.
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TheEngineer
15 years ago

"The Trend is Your Friend."

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Prior performance does not guarantee future success ;)

I hope you're not a technical chartist in real life mate!
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Pack93z
15 years ago


So much here to work with, but because it's my birthday today, I will avoid confrontation. But I'll match you, and admit that I'm a snotnose.

"DakotaT" wrote:



First.. Happy birthday you old bugger. ;)

Second.. Ray.. I hope Monday we can cram out virtual middle finger down your freaking throat. Stick with the team predictions ya silly slapstick writer.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago

Prior performance does not guarantee future success

"TheEngineer" wrote:



Nowhere did I say it does. My point was that the majority of pundits are, for all intents and purposes, as superstitious as card players who believe "the deck is warm" or "9s are hot today." Looking at long-term trends, therefore, is certainly a better indicator of success in the long term than looking at who's "hot" right now. Yes, picking based on who's "hot" or who's "poised to be hot" might notch you more wins in one week, but it's not likely to work well over the course of an entire season. The numbers show that year after year.
UserPostedImage
15 years ago

The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Yeah, I didn't pick a single upset in my pick'em leagues either and ended up 13-3. This week should be much more interesting though. Good games almost across the board!
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Fan Shout
beast (39m) : Great point Martha
beast (40m) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (3h) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (3h) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (3h) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (5h) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (7h) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (7h) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (7h) : 4rd
dfosterf (7h) : 5 minutes in the 4
dfosterf (7h) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
Martha Careful (7h) : Sorry to bitch, but the headline writers in that section absolutely mislead, or don't know how to read. It is maddening
Martha Careful (8h) : No thanks. Not a dependable guy to be in the right place and run the right route. Dumb as a box of rocks.
Zero2Cool (8h) : Losing 2nd round pick for a one year rental, not ideal. Especially a headcase.
TheKanataThrilla (9h) : Pickens for Jaire may be interesting. Definitely not sure we want Pickens long term.
dfosterf (9h) : No.Absolutely not
Zero2Cool (9h) : NO NO NO NO NO NO!!1 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
dhazer (9h) : scenario: Our main prospects are off the board when our pick comes around, do we just throw a 2nd round pick at Pittsburgh for Pickens
TheKanataThrilla (9h) : Hopefully she had some comfort that her son will be live his dream when she passed away. Sad news.
Mucky Tundra (10h) : Damn that sucks
Zero2Cool (11h) : News about Derrick Harmon mom, saddening.
Zero2Cool (12h) : Mark Murphy: "I predict we will trade up once and down twice."
beast (13h) : Rip the Packers and getting the fans yelling and booing him
beast (13h) : Super competitive Bears fan and WWE "superstar" wrestler, Seth Rollins is supposed to announce a Bears pick and absolutely rip Packers
packerfanoutwest (25-Apr) : Golden
beast (25-Apr) : I want DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : And I can't be looking at my phone
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : Hey I'm at work lol
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : btw, new site chat won't delete auto like
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : because everyone left like wimps
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : I am wondering if there is some type of autoclear when there isn't activity after a certain amount of time.
Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : What happened in the chat? Me and Zero posted a few things earlier and they're all gone
dfosterf (24-Apr) : 10-15 min bs plus flyover
dfosterf (24-Apr) : Yes
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : 7pm is when this kicks off????
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : I told him. IT'S VONTE MACK , no matter what!
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : He asked me who I thought The Browns were taking.
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : 2. Would of had to wear Browns gear all week. NOPE I'll watch from my living room.
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : He wanted to know if I would go. 2 things, would have had to fly from Detroit to Green Bay. Nope
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : All expense paid trip to the draft. He will be in the Browns section. I told him to say hi to J-10VE for me 😃😃i
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : For a call from my nephew, he won an sllexp
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : Hope to see everyone in the Chat tonight!!! Go Pack Go!!!
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : Jeanty would be a great pick-up for the Bears. I see Warren mocked to them as well who I think would be a great selection.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : GameDay Chat is open. Posting bits an tids in there.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : Excellent Source: The Bears have a deal in place to move up to 5 if Jeanty is there.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : Probably not until 10pm will be making pick
dfosterf (24-Apr) : But it is still not tonight. Lol
wpr (24-Apr) : Today is finally here.
dfosterf (24-Apr) : I should have put it in quotes
dfosterf (24-Apr) : It is the title of a you tube video.
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