British
15 years ago
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-Daily-Jolts-week-2-picks.html 

I found this pretty funny. And encouraging.

The Id Like Half My Winnings In Cash And Half In Suitcases To Carry The Cash Easy Money Game of the Week

GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati

Packers bloggers an excitable lot by nature are absolutely terrified by this game, which is just adorable. Theyre like the excitable townspeople in a Mark Twain story My god, if the Bengals can almost beat the Broncos, imagine what theyll do on the road against a legitimate Super Bowl contender!


Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

The problem with sportswriters' picks is that most writers are incorrigible bandwagon jumpers (they can't help themselves), meaning they're short-sighted and get distracted by short-term variations and anomalies (i.e., they believe in "hot" and "cold" streaks); and even worse, they want to make a splash by being the one to have prognosticated that improbable pick that stuns everyone. As successful -- that is to say, experienced -- bettors and investors know, however, "The Trend is Your Friend." They don't become overly excited by short-term aberrations because they know that in the end, everything regresses toward the mean. My algorithm, while certainly not sophisticated and unable to take into consideration factors unique to specific games or predict the unpredictable, at least strips all emotion and sensationalism from the picking process . . . and is therefore, considering how simplistic it is, remarkably successful.
bozz_2006
15 years ago
+1 for the algorithm!
Silentio
15 years ago
Nonstopdrivel, thanks for your post. 13-3 is nothing to sniff at.
blank
dfosterf
15 years ago
Ray Gustini is a snot-nosed arrogant little prick that is the weak link at NFP.

I believe he attended the UW or some-such. He has made fun of the Packer fans, Wisconsinites, Lambeau field and other such condescending bullshit.

I would like to tell you that I plan to tell him just how I feel about him, but instead I will give you some better news.

I already did. They published it too. Many of my fellow old geezer "members" there agreed with me, including several that root for our opponent's teams.

It is mostly a generational thing, I readily admit. The little f#ck has strong appeal to many of his full of themselves snot-noses.

At least I admit I'm full of myself, I just hate it when others do not...Plus I'm old and curmudgeonly, so I got that going for me...

:thumbleft:
DakotaT
15 years ago

Ray Gustini is a snot-nosed arrogant little prick that is the weak link at NFP.

I believe he attended the UW or some-such. He has made fun of the Packer fans, Wisconsinites, Lambeau field and other such condescending bullshit.

I would like to tell you that I plan to tell him just how I feel about him, but instead I will give you some better news.

I already did. They published it too. Many of my fellow old geezer "members" there agreed with me, including several that root for our opponent's teams.

It is mostly a generational thing, I readily admit. The little f#ck has strong appeal to many of his full of themselves snot-noses.

At least I admit I'm full of myself, I just hate it when others do not...Plus I'm old and curmudgeonly, so I got that going for me...

:thumbleft:

"dfosterf" wrote:




So much here to work with, but because it's my birthday today, I will avoid confrontation. But I'll match you, and admit that I'm a snotnose.
TheEngineer
15 years ago

"The Trend is Your Friend."

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Prior performance does not guarantee future success ;)

I hope you're not a technical chartist in real life mate!
blank
Pack93z
15 years ago


So much here to work with, but because it's my birthday today, I will avoid confrontation. But I'll match you, and admit that I'm a snotnose.

"DakotaT" wrote:



First.. Happy birthday you old bugger. ;)

Second.. Ray.. I hope Monday we can cram out virtual middle finger down your freaking throat. Stick with the team predictions ya silly slapstick writer.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago

Prior performance does not guarantee future success

"TheEngineer" wrote:



Nowhere did I say it does. My point was that the majority of pundits are, for all intents and purposes, as superstitious as card players who believe "the deck is warm" or "9s are hot today." Looking at long-term trends, therefore, is certainly a better indicator of success in the long term than looking at who's "hot" right now. Yes, picking based on who's "hot" or who's "poised to be hot" might notch you more wins in one week, but it's not likely to work well over the course of an entire season. The numbers show that year after year.
15 years ago

The author, Ray Gustini, went 5-11, a paltry 31.25% success rate, with his picks last week, illustrating the point I made in another thread, which is that most pundits make terrible picks. By contrast, my overly simplistic algorithm (pick team with better record; in case of a tie, pick home team) went a much more respectable 13-3 (81.25%). I would be willing to bet $1000 right here and now that my algorithm will kick his scattershot method by at least 10% over the course of the season, and probably more closer to 30%.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Yeah, I didn't pick a single upset in my pick'em leagues either and ended up 13-3. This week should be much more interesting though. Good games almost across the board!
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Martha Careful (14-Jan) : Why is it that the Rams rookies can contribute right away but our first and second year guys are too young to contribute in a meaningful way
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Martha Careful (11-Jan) : Two terrific NCAA Football Semi-Final Games...We can only hope the Championship game is as good
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Mucky Tundra (9-Jan) : Notre Lame vs Pedo St tonight and the Luckeyes vs Texas tomorrow
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