Todd Gurley cautionary tale for Aaron Jones· Page 2

wpr
Preferred Member

4 years ago

What kind of pick package could the Packers reasonably expect for Jones? If its a 1st or 2nd I think they're better off trading him and drafting a replacement.

I'm a big fan of Jones just not a fan of overpaying at a non-premium position.

Originally Posted by: isocleas2

I don't know the formula but probably a 3rd.

Mucky Tundra
Honored Member

4 years ago

#12

The Rams rode the guy to death.
With Aaron Jones, he has been used a lot, but also has been spelled by Williams. He hasn’t been the sole RB.
And now if they add Dillon into the fold, it takes even more pressure off of Jones.
To me, you can’t let a guy that’s been so great for the team walk.
He’s a great RB and receiving threat. Those don’t come along very often. You reward players that deserve it. He does.

Originally Posted by: Cheesey

This is probably the biggest factor if Green Bay chooses to resign Jones: he simply hasn't had the heavy workload that backs like Gurley and Elliot have had since coming in the league. Last year Jones had a career high 236 carries and 46 receptions. For comparison, Gurley had 229 carries and 21 receptions his rookie season in the league. After 4 seasons, Gurley had 1229 touches. Elliot already has three seasons of 300+ carries and in 2018 had 304 carries and 77 receptions. As of right now in his fifth season, Elliot has 1614 touches. Jones touches at the moment (in his fourth season in the league)? 755

“Nah. I like having the island. It’s pretty cool...not too many visitors”

"I’ve got it." -Aaron Rodgers

beast
Select Member

4 years ago

#13

Originally Posted by: isocleas2

Do you mean in a tag and trade?

Comp picks only go up to 3rd round.

I don't know the formula but probably a 3rd.

Originally Posted by: wpr

The formula includes percentage of snaps taken on new team and post season awards, such as Pro-Bowl. So it's hard to say...

But based on over the Cap's current projections, looks like $14 million per year average is on both sides of the 3rd/4th line. So I'd say Jones get a 4th in Comp pick if he signs for less than $14 million per year.

The chart at the bottom
https://overthecap.com/draft/

Speaking of which, they're projecting a
- 4th for Martinez
- 5th for Bulaga (darn injuries, should of been a 4th, but only about 40% of team snaps)
- 6th for Fackrell

Thank you Giants for the Comp picks, we tried to give them back to you in exchange for a DT, but you said no.

earthquake
Member

4 years ago

#14

It would be great to resign Aaron Jones, he's a good player. But no running back is worth more than $8m a year. Short of a Barry Sanders like player, and Aaron Jones isn't that.

If he doesn't want to sign for less than $10m or so, they should franchise him, and trade him if they can get more than they would for a comp pick. Let's say a second-round pick. I'm not sure how realistic that is. Though with Bahk and Clark locked up it seems Jones would be the ideal fit for the franchise tag.

Let's face it, Aaron Jones' career expectancy is likely closer to Eddie Lacy's than it is to Emmitt Smith's or Frank Gore's. As a rule, running backs do not last long in the NFL, and Jones has missed a number of games to injury already. The "he hasn't taken as much of a beating as other backs" argument has some logic to it, but at the same time, you don't pay $12-15m a year for a guy to take 12 carries a game. That's 20 a game type pay.

I was curious so I pulled some stats on the first four years for Gurley, Jones, and AP. Note, Jones still has 2 more games to go in his first 4 years.

Aaron Jones
52 games (84%)
630 carries (12.1 pg), 3,228 yards (62.1 pg), 36 TDs (0.7 PG)
125 receptions (2.4 pg). 1,000 yards (19.2 PG), 6 TDs (0.12pg)

Todd Gurley
58 games (90%)
1,042 carries (18.0 pg), 4,547 yards (78.4 PG), 46 TDs (0.8 PG)
187 receptions (3.2 pg). 1,883 yards (32.5 PG), 10 TDs (0.17 PG)

Adrian Peterson
61 games (95%)
1,199 carries (19.7 PG), 5,772 yards (94.6 PG), 52 TDs (0.85 PG)
118 receptions (1.9 PG), 1,170 yards (19.2 PG), 2 TDs (0.03 PG)

blank

Cheesey
Preferred Member

4 years ago

#15

Easy Cheesey, I am not attacking you. .

Originally Posted by: wpr

I know WPR! I didn’t think you were attacking me. Just a back and forth discussion. No problemo!

dhazer
Veteran Member

4 years ago

#16

very well said. If the offensive line was stronger, it would matter less who we have back there. And it would make Aaron Rodgers even more effective.

If it’s going to be $15-$20 million a year, I would much rather spend the money on the OL and DL and take our chances with Williams and Dillon and another draft pick.

Originally Posted by: KRK

I actually seen on one of the shows this morning and the guy brought up the o-line of green bay. He said people keep saying things like Aaron don't have the weapons and the o-line. He went on to show how our o-line is #1 with winning pass blocks and also run blocking. He then also showed how the Packers WRs are actually the fastest group in the nfl. He pointed out some other things to I will try and find them but he had the stats to prove it.

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

4 years ago

#17

Originally Posted by: dhazer

I feel that claim about the fastest WR group is misleading. I'm guessing the addition of Tavon Austin really bumped that up, lol.

wpr
Preferred Member

4 years ago

#18

I feel that claim about the fastest WR group is misleading. I'm guessing the addition of Tavon Austin really bumped that up, lol.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

I believe it when they are said to be one of the fastest groups. MVS has speed. Taylor and EQ are pretty quick too. I don't care a lot about speed. There have been a lot of players who were fast but couldn't catch the ball. Renaldo Nehemiah is always my go to example. He had world class speed but never caught the ball. On the other hand Adams is not a speed burner but he knows how to run routes, get open or at least to box out the defender and then CATCH THE BALL. Give me slower, shiftier route runners every time. Still, every team needs someone to go long and stretch the field. MVS. He may not catch the ball but he takes 1-2 defenders with him on every deep route.

TheKanataThrilla
Veteran Member

4 years ago

#19

It would be helpful to see what we have outside of Jones before we make any type of decision, but unfortunately Dillon has spent most of the year either on the pine or the Covid protocol and Dexter has talent, but hasn't seemed to pick up all the other duties required of an NFL RB. Jamaal Williams has been pretty good and seems like a great guy, but he is also a Free Agent. If we are in win now mode it would really make sense to try to find some way to keep Jones. The idea of using the Franchise Tag makes sense to me to either tag and trade or just to buy another year. Not sure how Jones or Rosenhaus would react to that type of move by the Packers. Would he hold out like Zeke did when he wanted a long term deal and security?

Pack93z
Select Member

4 years ago

#20

Treading lightly into this topic, but sure, he has been used and abused somewhat in his career. Most backs are between college and the pros, and most of them want the ball more.

Gurley strikes me as a player that still have the physical tools to play at a high level, but I think the desire to play ball may be absent or diminished. It happens... the game is rough, this year on and off the field has been brutal, sometimes people prioritize things differently.

That said, if you play running back in this game, more often than not, you have a very short window to be at your peak as the demands of the position are a grind, and the difference between you and the stable behind you is not that great. As the game wears your body down, that physical edge of speed and explosiveness fades... that gaps closes quickly. This is not a position, like an offensive or defensive lineman, where technique, leverage and skill is more of a paramount than the physical tools. That LOS meatgrinder probably takes more of a physical toll overall, but you can compensate and separate yourself from the guys behind you more in the mental than physical aspect of the game, leading to a longer window and more bites at the apple that pays.

This contract for Aaron Jones is that bite of that apple that really pays... I recommend that happiness and winning is balanced properly with getting paid. In other words, I don't think the Packers will have his services long term.

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

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packerfanoutwest (2h) : or did you resctrict access to that topic?

packerfanoutwest (3h) : why did you remove the Playoff topic?

Zero2Cool (18h) : Tua’s old DC won a Super Bowl Year 1 with Tua’s former backup

Mucky Tundra (19h) : *winning MVP

Mucky Tundra (20h) : Funny observation I've heard: Carson Wentz was on the sideline for both Eagles Super Bowl wins w/guys supposed to be his back up winning

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : NFL thought it would get more attention week preceding Super Bowl.

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Yes, the Pro Bowl. It was played Sunday before Super Bowl from 2010-2022

packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : pro bowl

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : From 2010 to 2022, it was played on the Sunday before the Super Bowl

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : They moved it to the BYE week before Super Bowl several years ago.

packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : it was always after the SB.....

beast (10-Feb) : Though I stop following pro bowl years ago

beast (10-Feb) : I thought the pro game was before the Super Bowl?

packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : ok now for the Pro Bowl Game in Hawaii

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : If I was Philly I would try to end it instead of punting it

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : VICTORY! We have (moral) victory!

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Hey they mentioned that we 3-peted

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : seems to me the 49ers should have traded Aiyuk when they had the chance

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : if the Eagles get it down to the 1, do they Tush Push or give it to Barkley?

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : 49ers have a money problem if they want to sign their QB

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Wait for real? Didn't he just get an extension two years ago?

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : 49ers gonna trade Deebo. Interesting

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Replays always never seem to show the holdings

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Great throw by Hurts

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Where Carter falls prey to bad off the field influences (to be clear, not saying he'd clip someone though)

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Had Carter not gone to Philly were they already had a lot of old college friends, he ends up in a similar spot to Aaron Hernandez

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : I think some of his coaches told scouts to stay away

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : the street racing incident+conditioning and motivation problems

beast (10-Feb) : Then Carter was street racing, where the other car crashed and people died... and other teams were scared to pick Carter for some reason

beast (10-Feb) : I think the Saints traded up, giving their next year 1st to the Eagles, and then they sucked and Eagles got the 10th overall pick

packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : wtf Barkley?

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Getting Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round in 2023 was pretty darn good

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : for some reason i'm thinking of a draft where the Eagles where in the mid 20s and a top player fell all the way to them

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : I think so. I would need to look it up. Think it may have been Carolina's pick.

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : i'm not sure who i'm thinking of now

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : oh fuck me i messed that up

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Jordan Davis was 13th overall

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Carter was 9th overall

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Eagles had 15th and 10th selections, moved to 13 and 9 to get Davis and Carter back to back

Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Eagles traded up for Carter, didn't they?

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Obviously he was a huge risk but getting a top 5 talent on the dline in the mid 20s is fortuitous

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Jalen Carter falling into their lap certainly helps

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : And we could only wish to have this type of D

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : It's not like Philly has had low draft picks, but has managed to get themselves a top notch pass rush. We spend so much draft capital of D

packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : another crap halftime show

TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : I think it is over, but then I think of Atlanta and want Philly to go in with the same intensity in the second half

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : And with a Pass Rush that might as well be on a milk cartoon and no Jaire

Martha Careful (10-Feb) : I cant help but feel good about how well the Packers D played in Philly during the playoffs

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : this game is over

Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : This might be the kill shot here

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