KRK
  • KRK
  • Veteran Member
7 years ago
This is an exceptional case. I love Jordy, but his deal needs to be renegotiated. So does Cobb's
In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
steveishere
7 years ago

Talking about cherry picking stats... Leading the league in TDs isn't a very good benchmark for skill. James Jones would've been the best receiver in 2012. Next to that, 5 games is an awfully small sample size.

Jordy is declining. It's obvious on tape as well as in his stats. That doesn't mean he's not worth anything. I can see why you'd want to keep him around based on the connection he has with Rodgers, his veteran savviness, his veteran leadership etc.

In the end, though, you only have a limited amount of funds. He's not worth his current pricetag. You can restructure, but you'll be stuck with a three year deal for a player who will only get worse from here on out.

I'm also quite afraid it'd impact our entire offense. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but Nelson isn't a slot receiver. He has the frame and skillset of an outside guy. You have to place him outside.

Davante mans the other position on the outside. There's no question there. Davante isn't amazingly fast either, though. Just like Nelson, he can run routes and place his body very well. That means you have no one to stretch the field on either side, with Nelson not getting any seperation anymore. Having Richard Rodgers as your tight end doesn't help that situation either. You need someone who's speed and explosiveness the defense will respect. We had that in Greg Jennings to start Rodgers' career and in Nelson in his prime the last few years. Allowing defenses to creep up and blitz will make your life rather hard in the pass and run game.

Now you can't predict or say that Watkins would blow our offense wide open, but a guy like that at a $1-2 million contract against Nelson on a $12.5 million contract... I'd gladly take that chance.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Jordy has actually played in the slot quite a bit over the years and has had a lot of success doing it. I think they started using him there in 2013 when Matt Flynn didn't have a strong enough arm to zip the ball to the perimeter so they moved Jordy so he could get the ball.

He was good in the slot in 2016 too 

Maybe hes declined enough that he can't work there but I don't know. He does have the skills for it though.
Rockmolder
7 years ago

Jordy has actually played in the slot quite a bit over the years and has had a lot of success doing it. I think they started using him there in 2013 when Matt Flynn didn't have a strong enough arm to zip the ball to the perimeter so they moved Jordy so he could get the ball.

He was good in the slot in 2016 too 

Maybe hes declined enough that he can't work there but I don't know. He does have the skills for it though.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 



Thanks for the link.

I made an assumption based on his height, weight, speed and overal skillset, but I guess I was way off there.
beast
7 years ago

Jordy has actually played in the slot quite a bit over the years and has had a lot of success doing it. I think they started using him there in 2013 when Matt Flynn didn't have a strong enough arm to zip the ball to the perimeter so they moved Jordy so he could get the ball.

He was good in the slot in 2016 too 

Maybe hes declined enough that he can't work there but I don't know. He does have the skills for it though.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 

Yeah, I was thinking it might of started the Super Bowl year, sometime after Finley went down... as I was thinking that was the first time I remembered being surprised Nelson was in the slot so much (for a couple of games, maybe not the whole season).

But I believe it was last year when MM surprised me about how they should be playing Nelson even more in the slot, because from there he can threatened both sides of the field and go up the deep middle.

Thanks for the link.

I made an assumption based on his height, weight, speed and overal skillset, but I guess I was way off there.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 


Yes, I don't think you use him in the same exact way you would use Cobb, but Nelson can be a quick TE in there, and that's partly why I think a guy like Jimmy Graham could potentially open up the offense.

Of course based on MM words, you might just want to find another outside WR and place Nelson on the inside.

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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
7 years ago

Talking about cherry picking stats... Leading the league in TDs isn't a very good benchmark for skill. James Jones would've been the best receiver in 2012. Next to that, 5 games is an awfully small sample size.

Jordy is declining. It's obvious on tape as well as in his stats. That doesn't mean he's not worth anything.
I can see why you'd want to keep him around based on the connection he has with Rodgers, his veteran savviness, his veteran leadership etc.

In the end, though, you only have a limited amount of funds. He's not worth his current pricetag. You can restructure, but you'll be stuck with a three year deal for a player who will only get worse from here on out.

I'm also quite afraid it'd impact our entire offense. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but Nelson isn't a slot receiver. He has the frame and skillset of an outside guy. You have to place him outside.

Davante mans the other position on the outside. There's no question there. Davante isn't amazingly fast either, though. Just like Nelson, he can run routes and place his body very well. That means you have no one to stretch the field on either side, with Nelson not getting any seperation anymore. Having Richard Rodgers as your tight end doesn't help that situation either. You need someone who's speed and explosiveness the defense will respect. We had that in Greg Jennings to start Rodgers' career and in Nelson in his prime the last few years. Allowing defenses to creep up and blitz will make your life rather hard in the pass and run game.

Now you can't predict or say that Watkins would blow our offense wide open, but a guy like that at a $1-2 million contract against Nelson on a $12.5 million contract... I'd gladly take that chance.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Absolutely.

Agree. He's connection is worth something. I am not suggesting it's $12.5. Back in my first post I said he isn't worth that much. I remember an article written about their relationship (I think it was in 2016). After they saw the defense was lined up Aaron looked at Jordy. Jordy nodded. Aaron took the snap and Jordy ran a completely different route than what was called in the huddle. TD. They know and understand one another. I am sure Aaron and Adams can develop the same kind of relationship eventually. But what Aaron and Jordy has is a security blanket for Aaron.

They certainly need someone to stretch the field. I hope they get him in the draft. This is the guy they need to replace Cobb. It would be nice if it was Davis or Allison but I am not sure if they will be able to take the next step forward.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
7 years ago

Yeah, I was thinking it might of started the Super Bowl year, sometime after Finley went down... as I was thinking that was the first time I remembered being surprised Nelson was in the slot so much (for a couple of games, maybe not the whole season).

But I believe it was last year when Mike McCarthy surprised me about how they should be playing Nelson even more in the slot, because from there he can threatened both sides of the field and go up the deep middle.


Yes, I don't think you use him in the same exact way you would use Cobb, but Nelson can be a quick TE in there, and that's partly why I think a guy like Jimmy Graham could potentially open up the offense.

Of course based on Mike McCarthy words, you might just want to find another outside WR and place Nelson on the inside.

Originally Posted by: beast 



Isn't it nermann who has been calling for Nelson to convert over to TE? Looks like that's what they have been doing without the designation. Kinda crazy huh? They look for a TE who can run like a WR and have a WR who is a big target and runs over the middle like a TE.
Along with a WR who pretended to be a RB, labels are a thing of the past. Both on offense and defense where the safety is playing LB and OLB playing DE.
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Zero2Cool
7 years ago

I'm not quite sure what play that screenshot is from, but just look at the situation, I'm guessing that has more to do with a blown coverage and Hundley's lack of vision than Nelson's physical abilities to run away from a defender.

Just an assumption, though. I'd gladly be corrected if wrong.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Maybe it was Jordy Nelson's experience that caused blown coverage? Maybe Jordy did something that caused confusion?
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Rockmolder
7 years ago

Maybe it was Jordy Nelson's experience that caused blown coverage? Maybe Jordy did something that caused confusion?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Could be. Doesn't change a thing about him losing a step. I've said that his awareness and savviness are worth something a couple of times now.
beast
7 years ago

Jordy is declining. It's obvious on tape as well as in his stats.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 


Really? What are the obvious stats that show Nelson is in a decline while having a half decent QB throwing to him...

Nelson best season was 2014 where he played 16 games, got 98 catches for 1,519 yards... which is an average of 6.125 catches per game and 94.9375 yards per game.

In 2015, Nelson had an ACL injury which is said to normally take more than a full year to recover from... and so Nelson started 2016 off slow as he was still recovering and knocking off the rust.

In the last 10 games of 2016, Nelson got 70 catches for 936 yards... which is an average of 7 catches for 93.6 yards per game... a whopping 1.3375 yards less per game than his career best.

Now in 2017... suddenly Nelson gets knocked out of the Falcons game, the whole offenses struggles against the Seahawks, Bengals and Vikings... and suddenly Nelson is done because Hundley can't get him the ball?


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buckeyepackfan
7 years ago

Talking about cherry picking stats... Leading the league in TDs isn't a very good benchmark for skill. James Jones would've been the best receiver in 2012. Next to that, 5 games is an awfully small sample size.

Jordy is declining. It's obvious on tape as well as in his stats. That doesn't mean he's not worth anything. I can see why you'd want to keep him around based on the connection he has with Rodgers, his veteran savviness, his veteran leadership etc.

In the end, though, you only have a limited amount of funds. He's not worth his current pricetag. You can restructure, but you'll be stuck with a three year deal for a player who will only get worse from here on out.

I'm also quite afraid it'd impact our entire offense. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but Nelson isn't a slot receiver. He has the frame and skillset of an outside guy. You have to place him outside.

Davante mans the other position on the outside. There's no question there. Davante isn't amazingly fast either, though. Just like Nelson, he can run routes and place his body very well. That means you have no one to stretch the field on either side, with Nelson not getting any seperation anymore. Having Richard Rodgers as your tight end doesn't help that situation either. You need someone who's speed and explosiveness the defense will respect. We had that in Greg Jennings to start Rodgers' career and in Nelson in his prime the last few years. Allowing defenses to creep up and blitz will make your life rather hard in the pass and run game.

Now you can't predict or say that Watkins would blow our offense wide open, but a guy like that at a $1-2 million contract against Nelson on a $12.5 million contract... I'd gladly take that chance.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Hell yes if you can get Sammy Watkins for 1-2mil a year then sign him.
I'm betting Sammy would be looking for another agent real quick.😁

The point is everyone is trying to give reasons for letting Jordy go.

I say that would be THE BIGGEST mistake Gutekunst could do.

You don't dump your Qb's favorite receiver to save a few million dollars.

Contracts these days are all about the guaranteed money.

Jordy, Randall, Clay and the rest fully know when they sign there's a good chance they will be restructuring by the final year.

Every receiver on The Packer roster learns to play every wr position.

That's why it takes awhile for the young guys to break into the lineup.

What is the chance that a guy like Watkins could come to Green Bay and step right in?

Jordy may have lost a step, (everyone does), his value on the field and in the lockeroom is much more important.

Extend Jordy for 3 years, convert the 12mil owed to a signing bonus.
Put his base salary at 1mil a year.
Add bonus incentives.

Now you are looking at having Jordy Nelson for the next 4 years at 4mil a year (cap hit)plus any bonus money achieved.
That is very doable.

Cobb is in same situation.
Both seem to be pretty intelligent guys.
The will get there 12mil signing bonus up front.
Pretty sure they could invest that money and make up for any lost revenue the next 3 years.

The first item on the agenda, IMHO, is to get an extension done with Aaron so they know just how much they have to spend.






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