CaliforniaCheez
13 years ago
Before the season, one of the many football computer nerd sites said one of the most important stats to watch for, that had the highest corollation, to success was passer rating differential.
That is a teams passer rating less its opponents passer rating.


Now that we have a good sample of data after week 6, I thought I would check it out.


Team, Passer rating differential, record
1) Packers 38.1 (6-0)
2) Lions 22.0 (5-1)
3) Jets 20.2 (3-3) *(mia,ne,jac)
4) Giants 19.5 (4-2)
5) 49'ers 18.2 (5-1)
6) Texans 14.8 (3-3) *(ind,mia,no)
7) Ravens 13.7 (4-1)
8) Bills 13.0 (4-2)
9) Patriots 12.8 (5-1)
10) Titans 12.7 (3-2)
11) Steelers 11.1 (4-2)
12) Saints 9.6 (4-2)
13) Cowboys 6.4 (2-3)
14) Raiders 4.0 (4-2)
15) Bengals 1.5 (4-2)
16) Chargers 0.1 (4-1)
17) Redskins -4.2 (3-2)
18) vikings -6.0 (1-5)
19) Falcons -6.4 (3-3)
20) Bears -7.1 (3-3)
21) Chiefs -8.6 (2-3)
22) Seahawks -8.7 (2-3)
23) Eagles -9.7 (2-4)
24) Browns -11.7 (2-3)
25) Cardinals -13.9 (1-4)
26) Buccaneers -14.5 (4-2) *(det,sf,atl)
27) Rams -20.1 (0-5)
28) Panthers -21.5 (1-5)
29) Colts -24.3 (0-6)
30) Jaguars -25.1 (1-5)
31) Broncos -29.2 (1-4)
32) Dolphins -34.0 (0-5)

I made a note of opponents on some that seemed to not fit the pattern.


Interestingly, The difference between a team's passer rating and its opponents passer rating (passer rating differential) corresponds well with power rankings.
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Greg C.
13 years ago
Whoah, that's a huge difference between the Packers and the second-place team. I've read about that stat before, and I agree that it is a helpful one. I think the Packers led the league in that category last season even though they barely made the playoffs, and then they went on to win the Super Bowl.
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Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
Something like 47 out of the last 60 NFL champions have lead the league in this statistical category.
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azrunning
13 years ago
That is an incredible difference from 🇦🇷 to anybody else. That's just amazing. I too was reading an article from an NFL stat site that showed a high correlation between yards per attempt and winning. Here is that stat (again a wide margin for 🇦🇷 ):

Aaron Rodgers GB 9.8
Tom Brady NE 9.1
Eli Manning NYG 9.1
Philip Rivers SD 8.3
Drew Brees NO 8.2
Tony Romo DAL 8.2
Cam Newton CAR 8.1
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 8.1
Curtis Painter IND 7.9
Matt Schaub HOU 7.9
Michael Vick PHI 7.9
Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.8
Chad Henne MIA 7.8
Jay Cutler CHI 7.4
Joe Flacco BAL 7.4
Kevin Kolb ARI 7.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 7.3
Matthew Stafford DET 7.3
Jason Campbell OAK 7.1
Andy Dalton CIN 6.9
Rex Grossman WAS 6.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.9
Alex Smith SF 6.9
Matt Cassel KC 6.8
Josh Freeman TB 6.7
Matt Ryan ATL 6.7
Donovan McNabb MIN 6.6
Tavaris Jackson SEA 6.4
Kyle Orton DEN 6.3
Sam Bradford STL 6.0
Blaine Gabbert JAC 5.8
Colt McCoy CLE 5.5
Kerry Collins IND 4.9

Article 
BAD EMAIL because the address couldn ot be found, or is unable to receive mail.
13 years ago

Before the season, one of the many football computer nerd sites said one of the most important stats to watch for, that had the highest corollation, to success was passer rating differential.

Originally Posted by: CaliforniaCheez 



I can't stand, unnecessary, commas.


But thank you for your continued statistical deliveries. 😉

I agree with Twinkiegorilla.

bozz_2006 wrote:


CaliforniaCheez
13 years ago

I can't stand, unnecessary, commas.


But thank you for your continued statistical deliveries. ;)

Originally Posted by: TwinkieGorilla 



Would you prefer parentheses around appositives?

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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
13 years ago
very interesting. Looks like the Cowboys (2-3) at #13 and vikings (1-5) at #18 are also ranked a little higher than their records. But that is always going to happen especially after only 5-6 games.
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Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
That was not an appositive but rather a restrictive relative clause and should not have been set off with commas. 🤦
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Zero2Cool
13 years ago
I'm not going to ask him any questions since he failed to even acknowledge the last two questions I asked. Dick. Factoid!
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Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago

v But that is always going to happen especially after only 5-6 games.

Originally Posted by: wpr 


Indeed, the correlation will never be perfect. But it is certainly amazingly high.
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