Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
14 years ago
Thought is was an interesting look at the Bears offense.. and something I hadn't heard mentioned as of yet.. just the their offensive line has improved over the course of this season with a change in offensive playcalling.




Can Bears Overcome the Odds?
 


Of the 30 teams that have qualified to play in the last 15 Super Bowls, only four have done so by finishing the regular season with a negative sack differential.

For the mathematically challenged currently in attendance, that means just 13.3% of the previous 30 Super Bowl participants have advanced to the NFLs biggest game after surrendering more sacks on offense than they amassed on defense during the regular season.

Bears fans may want to close their eyes for this next section.

Chicago enters this Sundays NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers backed by a defense that surrendered only 17.9 points per game in 2010 (fourth in NFL, second in NFC). But that doesnt mean this Bears team isnt without its flaws.

Lovie Smiths crew finished the regular season ranked dead last in the NFL in both sacks allowed (56) and sack differential (-22). Quarterback Jay Cutler was sacked a total of nine times in two games against the Packers this season (1-1) and was taken down four or more times in seven of 15 regular season games (3-4). As if that wasnt bad enough, Cutler didnt play a single game in 2010 in which he wasnt sacked at least once.

At this point you may be asking yourself, Why is a teams sack differential so important if the Bears made the NFC Championship game ranked last in that category?

Because this team is somewhat of a statistical anomaly.

For starters, check out the chart below that breaks down each NFL team's 2010 sack differential. The 18 teams that finished with a positive sack differential this season went a combined 169-119 (.586) during the regular season, while the 14 teams that posted a negative sack differential went just 87-137 (.388).

UserPostedImage
2010

In addition, of the 60 teams that have qualified for the playoffs over the last five years, 51 (85%) have entered postseason play with a positive sack differential. However, the nine teams to make the playoffs since 2006 with a negative sack differential are a combined 3-7 in the postseason (.300) and have never made it further than the Divisional Round (with the exception of this years Chicago team). Be sure to also take note that all 12 teams that qualified for postseason play in 2008 boasted a positive regular season sack differential.

This isnt to say the Bears wont go on to win the Super Bowl, but recent history is certainly against them. Only three teams (New England in 2002, Baltimore in 2001 and Green Bay in 1997) have hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy over the past 15 years after wrapping up the regular season with a negative sack differential.

The -8 Baltimore posted in 2001 is currently the worst sack differential for a Super Bowl winner since 1995.

At -22, the Bears certainly have their work cut out for them if they plan on rewriting history.

UserPostedImage


"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
RajiRoar
14 years ago
Detroit is +17, wow!


Accuscore is giving GB a 61% chance of winning, 81% if we win the turnover ratio.

gawd i get worried when we are heavy favorites!

MintBaconDrivel
Dec, 11, 2012 - FOREVER!
vikesrule
14 years ago

Thought is was an interesting look at the Bears offense.. and something I hadn't heard mentioned as of yet.. just the their offensive line has improved over the course of this season with a change .

"Pack93z" wrote:



Agreed on their O-line.

Interesting perspective on this.....Mike Tice

Lesson Learned, the Bears Tice Is Teaching Again 

He had his ups and downs in Minnesota, but compared to the last HC we had...Tice was a genius.
Users browsing this topic
    Fan Shout
    Zero2Cool (8h) : Both LB Quay Walker and Rookie DB Micah Robinson have passed their physicals
    Zero2Cool (9h) : Happy to see site feels more snappy snappy
    Zero2Cool (9h) : No sir. I did not.
    dfosterf (9h) : You didn't get free childcare when you were at work?
    wpr (10h) : These guys make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Pay for their own childcare.
    dfosterf (11h) : 2nd issue. Number 1 issue was no gameday childcare. 1 of 3 teams not providing it
    Zero2Cool (11h) : Suppose if locker room is main issue, we sitting pretty
    wpr (11h) : I thought so Mucky. In those useless player polls GB always rates high overall. Locker is a part of it.
    Mucky Tundra (12h) : Wasn't the locker room just updated like 6 or 7 years ago?
    Zero2Cool (12h) : I have forum updated on different site. We'll see how this one goes before going to that
    Zero2Cool (13h) : Elgton Jenkins has a back injury, is expect to end contract dispute
    wpr (15h) : It's funny the PA complained about the locker room. It wasn't that long ago it was top shelf. Things change in a hurry.
    wpr (15h) : The site is much more better.
    Zero2Cool (15h) : NFLPA report said Packers lockerroom needed upgrade. Whining bout where you change?
    Zero2Cool (15h) : I saw that and thought it was kind of lame.
    dfosterf (15h) : Packers new locker room is pretty awesome. Great for morale, imo
    Zero2Cool (16h) : Shuffled things on the web server. Hope it makes it faster.
    Zero2Cool (16h) : Other times, it's turtle ass
    Zero2Cool (16h) : Sometimes it's snappy, like now.
    beast (17h) : I feel like it's loading at the top of the next minute, or something like that.
    beast (17h) : Also the thanks/heart takes FOREVER to load, and posting in the shout box takes three times FOREVER!
    beast (17h) : Thanks for saying something, I thought it was slow, but assumed it was on my end
    beast (17h) : Thanks for saying something, I thought it was slow, but assumed it was on my end
    Zero2Cool (17h) : Yeah, I noticed that too. Is it slow for PackerPeople.com too?
    wpr (18h) : I don't know what you IT guys call it but the page loading is very slow for me today.
    Zero2Cool (18h) : SSL might be settled now.
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Still working through SSL cert issues
    wpr (23-Jul) : Glad to be back
    Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : I think PH original finally working.
    dfosterf (22-Jul) : Can tell you are having a fun day Kev
    Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : Yep, I had to manually move them. It'll fix itself after more posts.
    Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : Same deal with the songs/videos thread, says you replied last but when I go there it's what I posted earlier is last
    Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : I had to manually move three posts.
    Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : But when I go it, Martha's is the last reply
    Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : Still a little screwy; it shows on the main forum that you were the last person to reply to the Jenkins trade thread
    Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : Host issues, been crazy day
    Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : Connect 4?
    Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : Connecting to new database
    Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : What the hell
    beast (22-Jul) : Packershome going to the Whiteout unis again
    Zero2Cool (21-Jul) : Oh wait, they got Cam Ward. 1st overall right? haha oops
    Zero2Cool (21-Jul) : They could send Packers a 1st for a QB they are familiar with
    Zero2Cool (21-Jul) : Titans QB Will Levis to have season-ending shoulder surgery
    Zero2Cool (19-Jul) : Their season did kind of start there, so 🤷
    dfosterf (19-Jul) : Eagles put an engraved Brazil flag on their super bowl rings
    Zero2Cool (18-Jul) : Benton unsigned no more
    Zero2Cool (17-Jul) : That's good analysis, yes you are getting old. It'd a blessing!
    dfosterf (14-Jul) : *analysis* gettin' old
    dfosterf (14-Jul) : One of the best analyisis I"ve ever watched at this time of an offseason
    dfosterf (14-Jul) : Andy Herman interviewed Warren Sharp on his Pack a day podcast
    Please sign in to use Fan Shout
    2025 Packers Schedule
    Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
    LIONS
    Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
    COMMANDERS
    Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
    Browns
    Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
    Cowboys
    Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
    BENGALS
    Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
    Cardinals
    Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
    Steelers
    Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
    PANTHERS
    Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
    EAGLES
    Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
    Giants
    Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
    VIKINGS
    Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
    Lions
    Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
    BEARS
    Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
    Broncos
    Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
    Bears
    Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
    RAVENS
    Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
    Vikings
    Recent Topics
    16m / Around The NFL / beast

    1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    3h / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

    6h / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

    7h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    7h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    18h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

    23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    22-Jul / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

    22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    20-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    20-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    18-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    15-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    Headlines
    Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.