Pack93z
  • Pack93z
  • Select Member Topic Starter
13 years ago
Thought is was an interesting look at the Bears offense.. and something I hadn't heard mentioned as of yet.. just the their offensive line has improved over the course of this season with a change in offensive playcalling.




Can Bears Overcome the Odds?
 


Of the 30 teams that have qualified to play in the last 15 Super Bowls, only four have done so by finishing the regular season with a negative sack differential.

For the mathematically challenged currently in attendance, that means just 13.3% of the previous 30 Super Bowl participants have advanced to the NFLs biggest game after surrendering more sacks on offense than they amassed on defense during the regular season.

Bears fans may want to close their eyes for this next section.

Chicago enters this Sundays NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers backed by a defense that surrendered only 17.9 points per game in 2010 (fourth in NFL, second in NFC). But that doesnt mean this Bears team isnt without its flaws.

Lovie Smiths crew finished the regular season ranked dead last in the NFL in both sacks allowed (56) and sack differential (-22). Quarterback Jay Cutler was sacked a total of nine times in two games against the Packers this season (1-1) and was taken down four or more times in seven of 15 regular season games (3-4). As if that wasnt bad enough, Cutler didnt play a single game in 2010 in which he wasnt sacked at least once.

At this point you may be asking yourself, Why is a teams sack differential so important if the Bears made the NFC Championship game ranked last in that category?

Because this team is somewhat of a statistical anomaly.

For starters, check out the chart below that breaks down each NFL team's 2010 sack differential. The 18 teams that finished with a positive sack differential this season went a combined 169-119 (.586) during the regular season, while the 14 teams that posted a negative sack differential went just 87-137 (.388).

UserPostedImage
2010

In addition, of the 60 teams that have qualified for the playoffs over the last five years, 51 (85%) have entered postseason play with a positive sack differential. However, the nine teams to make the playoffs since 2006 with a negative sack differential are a combined 3-7 in the postseason (.300) and have never made it further than the Divisional Round (with the exception of this years Chicago team). Be sure to also take note that all 12 teams that qualified for postseason play in 2008 boasted a positive regular season sack differential.

This isnt to say the Bears wont go on to win the Super Bowl, but recent history is certainly against them. Only three teams (New England in 2002, Baltimore in 2001 and Green Bay in 1997) have hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy over the past 15 years after wrapping up the regular season with a negative sack differential.

The -8 Baltimore posted in 2001 is currently the worst sack differential for a Super Bowl winner since 1995.

At -22, the Bears certainly have their work cut out for them if they plan on rewriting history.

UserPostedImage


"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
RajiRoar
13 years ago
Detroit is +17, wow!


Accuscore is giving GB a 61% chance of winning, 81% if we win the turnover ratio.

gawd i get worried when we are heavy favorites!

MintBaconDrivel
Dec, 11, 2012 - FOREVER!
vikesrule
13 years ago

Thought is was an interesting look at the Bears offense.. and something I hadn't heard mentioned as of yet.. just the their offensive line has improved over the course of this season with a change .

"Pack93z" wrote:



Agreed on their O-line.

Interesting perspective on this.....Mike Tice

Lesson Learned, the Bears Tice Is Teaching Again 

He had his ups and downs in Minnesota, but compared to the last HC we had...Tice was a genius.
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Mucky Tundra (20h) : Bears. Santos. Blocked FG
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Bears. Vikings. OT
Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Thems the breaks I guess
Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Two players out and Williams had an injury designation this week but Oladapo is a healthy scratch
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Packers inactives vs 49ers: • CB Jaire Alexander • S Kitan Oladapo • LB Edgerrin Cooper • OL Jacob Monk
TheKanataThrilla (24-Nov) : Aaron Jones with a costly red zone fumble
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : When we trade Malik for a 1st rounder, we'll need a new QB2.
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : Report: Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but not for the Jets
beast (23-Nov) : That's what I told the Police officer about my speed when he pulled me over
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : NFL told Bears that Packers’ blocked field goal was legal
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : 49ers are underdogs at Packers, ending streak of 36 straight games as favorites
Zero2Cool (22-Nov) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
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