https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tie-breaking-procedures/ 

The tiebreaking rules (wildcard, for outside division tiebreakers) have conference record above record against common opponents.

Edit: it's close to a moot point, if we end up tied with Dallas and tie on the conference record they'll likely still win on common opponents.

Yeah that makes sense.

So the Packers have to win out unless the Cowboys lose at least one game. Luckily, Dallas plays Washington, Arizona, and Philly the next three weeks and Washington is in must win to have a chance mode, the Cardinals need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Rams for the division title, and the Eagles could theoretically be playing for a playoff spot in week 18 (they have 4 remaining games, all within the NFC east).

If the Packers win their next two, and the Cowboys lose one of their next two, I believe the Packers will head into the Lions game with the #1 seed clinched, and effectively have two weeks of rest for their starters (I assume they'll treat the Lions game like a preseason game in this case). But I'm not sure if the Bucs can finish in a way that would give them the tie breaker. Arizona shouldn't be able to with the head to head loss to the Packers

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Agreed. Dallas, like Green Bay, has struggled over the years with divisional opponents. There is a chance that either Washington or Phillie take them down. Just like there is a chance that Minney or Detroit plays the packers tough. Should prove to be interesting.
I like the Packer's odds playing Cleveland at home on Saturday after they play today. It's a really short week for them. The down side is a lot of their players are getting a bye week this week so there's that too.

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