I don't see Arizona and Dallas being too difficult. We have a good record against Dallas at home. Last year was our first lost to Dallas at Lambeau Field.

Arizona preys on the deep ball and with out blitzing we should get to slow Warner quite often.

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I really hope we beat the Cows at home. I hate the Cows, and especially don't want to see us lose to them at home.

We're sweeping da Bears. I have to have something I predict come right this year. I said we'd split with MN (didn't happen), sweep da Bears, and shut out 2 opponents. Half way there with the latter 2.

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Looking at our record under McCarthy, based on whether our opponent had a winning record going into the game, a .500 record, or a losing record, here's how we've done:

W=teams we played who had a winning record when we played them
E=teams who were .500 when we played them
L=teams with losing records when we played them

2006: 8-8
W: 1-6 (our one win came in the last game of the year, against Chi who was 13-2 and resting their guys for the playoffs)
E: 1-1
L: 6-1

2007: 13-3
W: 4-2 (includes 1-1 in playoffs)
E: 3-0
L: 7-2

2008: 6-10
W: 2-5
E: 1-3
L: 3-2

2009: 4-3
W: 0-2
E: 1-0
L: 3-1

Weve gone 7-15 when weve played teams who have had a winning record coming into the game (2-7 over the last two years), 6-4 against .500 teams (2-3 over the last two years), and 19-6 against teams with losing records (6-3 over the last two years). Basically, we're winning when we should (beating the bad teams), but we can't beat the good teams.

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OK, here's the fine print: the following analysis based on past performance, which is not necessarily indicative of future performance, yada yada yada. The analysis is also based on current records, and those teams with winning records at this time (Chicago) may have losing records by the time we play them...
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Of our 9 remaining opponents, 5 currently have winning records (Pit 5-2, Dal 5-2, Bal 4-3, Ari 4-3, Chi 4-3) and 4 have losing records (TB 0-7, SF 3-4, Det 1-6, Sea 2-5). Based on past performance, we should expect to win 1-2 (1.6) of the games against teams with a winning record (Chi+Ari?) and 3 games against teams with a losing records (lose to SF?).


Based on past performance, we should expect to go 5-4 the rest of the way, which would have us ending the season 9-7. We get there by either winning 1 of the games against teams with winning records and all 4 against teams with losing records or 2 against the teams with winning records and losing 1 against the rest. I don't know that 9-7 would be good enough to make the playoffs.

Oh my god. Are you an accountant? Financial analyst?

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I'm going to steal something from Jim Rome.

Have a take, don't suck.
And I'm going to add a little bit to that.

Have a take, don't suck and if you can't do that, shut up.


:)

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lol. No.

I had gone back and looked at our past records based on some comments I heard/read about how bad we sucked against teams with winning records. I had posted a similar look a couple of weeks ago, and simply updated the numbers for the last two games. After running the numbers, I looked at the schedule to see if the numbers looked reasonable and based on our opponents figured 9-7/10-6 was a reasonable ballpark, and reading others here seemed to be arriving at the same conclusion.

I don't know why we suck so badly against teams with winning records, but I think it's self-evident that we will be a mediocre team (be on the edge of skirting into the playoffs, and if we make it likely to make an early exit) unless we can improve our performance against this level of opponent.

Pipe down soccer fan.

edited for accuracy 🙂

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@ TB - Win

Winless team, no way we should lose this even on the road. We have to show up and spank them like we did Detroit and Cleveland.

DAL - Win/Loss

They seem to be improving but I'm still not sure we're they stand, just like I'm not entirely sure where we stand. They may be 5-2 but they have faced a pretty weak schedule and 4 of their 5 wins come against crap teams (Tampa, Carolina, Kansas City... in overtime no less, and Seattle). They lost two close games to the Giants and Broncos who are obviously good teams, and they have the impressive win against Atlanta. This is a big game for playoff implications.

SF - Win

They are 3-4 and have yet to win a game outside of their division. I know they have given both Minnesota and Indianapolis a run for their money but we should beat them.

@ DET - Win

We should kill them like we did the last time.

BAL - Loss

This will be an extremely tough game and I see them beating us. We have the ability to play with them though but we do not have the consistency right now. If that changes we'll have a shot at upsetting them.

@ CHI - Win/Loss

It will be a tough division game in Soldier Field. Anything could happen, though I am leaning slightly towards the Pack pulling this one off.

@ PIT - Loss

See Baltimore, only harder because it's in Pittsburgh.

SEA - Win

They're 2-5 and have only managed to beat St. Louis and Jacksonville. We should steamroll them.

@ ARI - Win

They're a pretty good team playing in the weakest division in football. They're also pretty inconsistent having beaten New York and lost to Carolina. I expect to beat them but it will not be an easy game, unless they're in a position where they've clinched the west but are not in a position to move above any of the other division leaders for playoff seeding.


I see us at about 10-6 right now, and probably a wild card spot. Right now a lot of that will hinge on the Dallas game and the Chicago game. If we can win either of those or both we'll have the inside track towards one of the wild card spots.

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