The Mad Bombers: QBs who can 'carry a team'
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 12, 2009
By Mark Wald
Frustrated Rams fan and future CHFF ombudsdouche
Last season Cold, Hard Football Facts pointed out Brett Favres poor record in games in which he threw more than 40 passes, comparing him to Tom Brady.
Favre was called out for not rising to the occasion when asked to carry a team or carry the load.
As much as I hate to say it, as one of CHFF's most consistent critics, it turns out there was quite a bit of truth to the Cold, Hard Football Facts comparison: Tom Brady is among the very best in history at carrying a team to victory. Brett Favre is not.
But Brady is no Mad Bomber. A recent study that I conducted revealed that Daryle Lamonica, the legendary long-ball-tossing demolition expert of the great Raiders teams of the 1960s, certainly deserved his nickname: no quarterback in history was more successful when called upon to outgun the opposition.
The results of the study are fairly fascinating to football aficionados: Lamonica, Brady and CHFF icon Bart Starr rank 1-2-3, respectively, when it came time to "carry their teams" to victory. Theyre among a very, very short list of just 10 quarterbacks in history who boast winning records when asked to carry a team.
But first, a little background.
What it means to carry a team
Carrying a team is not easy. People familiar with football statistics know that the more often a quarterback passes, the less likely he is to win. Check any box score: the QB who throws the most passes typically loses the game.
No doubt, this has a lot to do with the situations that makes it necessary to throw all those passes: most of the time, the quarterback throwing a lot of passes was behind at some point, or engaged in a major shoot-out. Teams with a comfortable lead simply do not throw a lot of passes.
Thats why its impressive when quarterbacks manage to win games when they throw a lot of passes. But I wanted to know more: Relatively speaking, how poor is Favres record in games where he had to carry a team? How good is Bradys? Whats average? Whats great?
To find some answers, my study analyzed all games played from 1960-2008. Due to the evolution of the NFL passing game that has led to the modern Live Ball Era (1978-present), I defined games in which a quarterback was asked to carry a team as follows:
* 1960-1977 30 or more passes
* 1978-2008 40 or more passes
One could argue the threshold prior to 1978 should be a number other than 30. Let the statisticians debate it. In this analysis, know that if Roger Staubach, for example, threw 30 passes in a 1976 game and 30 passes in a 1979 game, the first game would be captured and the second game would not. If Staubach threw 40 passes in a game in 1976 or in 1979, it was captured. If a quarterback played before and after 1960, only the games since 1960 were included.
The wins and losses say it all
The difficulty in carrying a team is evident by the very poor record of quarterbacks forced to pass the ball often.
From 1960-2008 there were 3,877 games in which a quarterback was asked to "carry the team." Their record in these games is abysmal:
Wins 1,148
Losses 2,645
Ties 84
Pct. .307
Thats tough: quarterbacks asked to carry their teams combined to win just 3 of every 10 games. Clearly, passing the ball a lot is not a good situation in which to find ones self. Most quarterbacks fail to deliver.
Quarterbacks who can carry a team
To put the difficulty of carrying a team into additional perspective, consider that only 10 out of 116 quarterbacks in history asked to "carry a team" (min. 10 game situations) managed to win more games than they lost.
In fact, some of the greatest quarterbacks in history, including the likes of Joe Montana and Dan Marino, failed to win as many games as they lost when asked to carry a team. But these two legends of the 1980s do make the list of best quarterbacks ever when called upon to "carry a team."
Top 20 QBs When Asked to Carry a Team
(min. 10 games; includes postseason)
(Click here for table)
Apparently, its so tough to win in this situation that ending up victorious in 40 percent of your games is impressive. Its awe-inspiring that Lamonica and Brady managed to win around 70 percent of the time when called upon to carry their load.
Their achievement is even more impressive when you consider that the career winning percentage of Starr, Wade, Unitas and Blanda when they had to carry a team could be overstated here since their games prior to 1960 are not included. For example, Bart Starrs regular season record prior to 1960 is 7-16. His career record when he had to carry a team is probably below .500.
Some contemporary comparisons
Besides Brady, only one other contemporary quarterback makes the cut on the Top 20. In fact, Phillys Donovan McNabb is on the very short list of just 10 quarterbacks in history who wins more often than not when called upon to carry his team (17-14-1).
Interestingly, the most famous battle between Brady and McNabb their meeting in Super Bowl XXXIX provided a nice case study in the difficulty of carrying a team. Brady attempted 33 passes that day. McNabb was forced to try to carry his team with 51 attempts. Bradys team won.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts, meanwhile, recently published their list of the top eight quarterbacks in the game today. The list was typical of the trite, slanted comparisons produced by CHFF. So it seemed like an interesting exercise to see how the eight quarterbacks on that list stacked up when it came time to carry a team.
Interestingly, with the notable exception of McNabb, the winning percentage of quarterbacks who can carry a team mirrors the order in CHFFs list fairly closely. (Records include postseason):
* Brady 17-8 (.680)
* McNabb 17-14-1 (.547)
* Roethlisberger 4-5 (.444)
* Warner 15-24 (.385)
* P. Manning 18-31 (.367)
* Rivers 2-5 (.286)
* Brees 10-28 (.263)
* Pennington 2-6 (.250)
Brady also has the best record in the postseason (4-1), the only player on this list who wins more often than he loses in the playoffs when asked to "carry a team."
Brett Favre, for his part (whose performances when asked to "carry a team" inspired this piece), is 27-49 (.355) in these types of games. So that's actually above the historic average of .300.
Quarterbacks who cant carry a team
Naturally, some quarterbacks just cant get it done. Here is the bottom 20. My study is sure to crush CHFFs Chief Troll, the biggest Doug Flutie apologist in the nation.
Worst 20 QBs When Asked to Carry a Team
(min. 10 games; includes postseason)
(Click here for table)
The Old-School Gunslingers
Were Old-School Quarterbacks Better?
Consider the the top 20 list above: It's full of NFL legends, while few contemporary quarterbacks make the cut.
The bottom 20 list (outside of Archie Manning, Norm Snead, Ron Jaworski, and Steve Spurrier) is populated with quarterbacks of recent history.
Todays modern-style passing game has led to production and efficiency not seen since ... well, ever. But is the actual quarterbackingthe leadershipbetter? Judging by the criteria of being able to "carry a team," the results say no.
Perhaps the modern era of scripted game plans and play calls coming in from the sideline and not from the huddles has produced a generation of field generals who simply can't "carry a team" on their back. That's my theory.