Packers Will Go 7-9· Page 2

Greg C.
Registered

15 years ago

That was an interesting read. I think the Packers will be at least a couple games better than 7-9, but at least these folks have an explanation for their prediction.

It seems like there are some contradictions in the article, however. For example, they talk about some stats being the result of luck, so that they are bound to change the following year, and yet they cite Ryan Grant's superior YPC with Korey Hall at FB as if it is gospel. Who's to say that it wasn't just another example of luck, or even more likely, a result of other factors, like maybe the coaches put Korey Hall on the field in situations that were more conducive to longer runs.

Another bit that did not impress me was about QB's winning percentages in close games vs. blowouts. Joe Montana had a great winning percentage in blowouts because he was a great QB on the best team of the era, so they had a lot of blowouts. So it's not exactly a surprise that his team would more often lose close games than blowouts. The same is true of Favre, of course, but to a lesser extent because his team was less dominant than Montana's.

This is the equivalent to when you're watching an NBA game and the TV people tell you that a certain team has a way better winning percentage when it scores over 100 points. Well of course they do! You are more likely to win when you score more points! That one always makes me swear at the TV. (Yes, it is a lonely life I lead.)

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Stevetarded
Registered

15 years ago

#12

That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.

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evad04
Member

15 years ago

#13

That same almanac predicted Rodgers to have a lower completion % than Culpepper and 3% lower than Cutler.

"Stevetarded" wrote:

And the truth has set us free. Any "credible" source that supposes Culpepper will have a higher completion percentage than Rodgers is bonkers.

William Henderson didn't have to run people over. His preferred method was levitation.
"I'm a reasonable man, get off my case."

dfosterf
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#14

The DVOA is their best attempt at applying their brand of statistical modeling to achieve a reasonably good predictive outcome. Unfortunately, it has quite a few flaws, and while reasonably entertaining and somewhat sophisticated, it is hardly the best that is out there if you subscribe to a concept that predictions can be made through statistical analysis of the past when it comes to a game like NFL football.

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it, lol- He did luck. That's right, luck. We were ranked 28th in luck last year. I never posted this, and you are going to find it yourself, but as I said, if you are "into" it, this should keep you busy for some time.

Have fun. BTW anal-retentive can be spelled with either a hyphen OR a dash, and I have the stats to prove it. :thumbleft:

Advanced NFL Stats.com

I personally have never "got behind" some mathematical theories...Still having some conceptual difficulties with the space/time continuum, for example, but that one doesn't really piss me off. The one that angers me (tongue in cheek, folks) is the " "Let's make a deal" " conundrum.

Here--Deal with it---

Let's make a deal

As you reflect upon numbers and numbers guys, I direct your attention to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities packages. That is a very fine example of those guys' best thinking. I'll stick to big fat linemen, thank you very much. :thumbleft:

mi_keys
Senior Member

15 years ago

#15

One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.

Born and bred a cheesehead

dhazer
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#16

One quick note I wanted to make is that they said we had no injuries on offense based on their measure (time missed) but we had guys like Rodgers and Grant playing with injuries.

"mi_keys" wrote:

I'm sure they are talking about missed games, i bet all the players had some sort of injury 😛

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)

dhpackr
Registered

15 years ago

#17

if the Packers go 7-9 i expect to see some changes in the front office and coaching staff.

So if you meet me Have some courtesy, Have some sympathy, and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse, Or I'll lay your soul to waste

Greg C.
Registered

15 years ago

#18

Let me share a website that is infinitely more entertaining. You will have to mine for it- my theory being that if you are anal enough to get into it, you are anal enough to find it

"dfosterf" wrote:

Could you please be more specific? I just looked at a whole bunch of anal web sites, and I couldn't find anything about football.

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Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member

15 years ago

#19

Just to set the record straight, Foster has in fact posted about DVOA in the past, and the realization he fails to recollect this certainty causes me some concern for the integrity of his cognitive function. You might want to refer yourself to a qualified physician for a basic neurological evaluation, my friend. ;)

Personally, I think the prediction of 7-9 can be dismissed virtually out of hand (and no, I'm not going to waste time providing my analysis of why -- I've done so extensively in other threads), and furthermore, I must admit that I find the veiled glee with which said prediction has been received by certain parties on this site borderline offensive.

I don't know why I'm so defensive of the team lately. I guess I'm feeling more patient than usual. The game is played on the field, not on paper, and I'm feeling optimistic about this season, so goddammit, all of you will too. :P

My hiatus is nearly up and I shall return in full force within a few days.

Wade
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#20

"dfosterf" wrote:

Ow. Stats. Probability. Monte Carlo methods or not. My head hurts.

:scratch: :scratch:
[Aside:thanks for this post, dfosterf -- recently found I have to teach biz stats next spring (mutter, mutter, barf, barf) -- maybe I can use the two NFL stats-oriented sites for a project for the sports geeks in the class. 🙂 ]

28th in luck. aging/hurt tauscher, spitz/moll/whoever, wells/whoever, college/whoever, chronic-false-starts-clifton.....how'd we manage as high as 28th?

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)

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