From Cincyfan (@Darktraveler1): Where could [Aaron] Rodgers go that would be better than GB? seems they are best positioned to win over other teams.
Cincy, thank you! This is a point I’ve been making since the spring—I do not think there’s a better football situation for Rodgers anywhere. That was the case then, it’s the case now, and I think it’ll be the case when we get to the offseason. The irony, of course, is the guy that Rodgers has been at odds with, GM Brian Gutekunst, is responsible for it; that roster is well-rounded, it’s deep, and it’s set up for a veteran quarterback.
The flip side here is that the Packers have some cap gymnastics to do after this year. They project to be way over the $208.2 million limit. Davante Adams, De’Vondre Campbell and Robert Tonyan are scheduled to be free agents (though the latter two should be relatively affordable). On top of that, if the Packers and Rodgers were to renew vows it would have to be with a new contract, and that won’t be cheap either.
But you tell me where the better situation is, of the teams that will be looking. Seattle? The Giants? Miami? Carolina? Philly? The two I might buy are Denver and Cleveland, teams that could be what Denver was to Peyton Manning or Tampa was to Tom Brady. The difference here is Manning and Brady were playing for teams that had rosters about to crumble. Rodgers isn’t in that spot. Which means continuity would be another plus for Green Bay.
Now, if Rodgers just wants to play somewhere else, or if he wants to live in a certain part of the country rather than in Wisconsin, then that’s a different discussion. Based on football alone? Green Bay was the best spot for him, without question, in 2021, and so long as the Packers are willing to do a few things cap-wise and contract-wise to help him, it sure looks like it’ll be the best spot for him in 2022, too.
From Mike Woodford (@DFlutieBB): If Rodgers ends up traded, what package will the Packers get back?
Mike, it’d be a haul. Post-draft, there were four teams still sniffing around on a blockbuster quarterback trade: Philly, Carolina, Denver and Miami. I don’t see why any of those four wouldn’t be in the running again, and you’ll have others now, too. Seattle could be in the mix if Russell Wilson’s gone. Derek Carr has been great, but he’ll be going into a contract year, and Rodgers showed previous interest in the Raiders. The Giants? The Browns?
And then there are teams you wouldn’t expect. Remember, in 2012 no one was talking about the Broncos being a player in the Manning sweepstakes—they had a first-round pick at the position who’d just won a playoff game. Then they were, and you know the rest.
I’m detailing all of that to say, the potential for a bunch of bidders would drive the price north. That Rodgers is not under contract past 2022 would be a factor going in the other direction, so it’s a little complicated. But for the sake of the exercise, let’s pick Denver out of the hat and put a package together. If the season ended today, the Broncos would have the 13th pick in the draft. The Packers would have the aforementioned cap problems. So …
Broncos get: QB Aaron Rodgers, 2022 seventh-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick.
Packers get: 2022 first-round pick (13th overall), 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2022 second-round pick (from Rams), QB Drew Lock, TE Albert Okwuebunam, WR K.J. Hamler.
My reasoning here on the Packers return: They get a cheap, young, talented quarterback to push Jordan Love (remember, they drafted Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn the year after Brett Favre’s first retirement to compete with Rodgers), plus two promising young guys on rookie contracts. And, of course, the mountain of picks is self-explanatory, with three top-60 picks this year, plus two future first-rounders and another future top-100 pick in the mix. It’s a bounty. But Rodgers makes Denver a title contender instantly.
As for Denver’s return, getting a pick this year and a pick next year means your net loss in picks volume is lessened to two this year, one in 2023, and one in 2024, and having volume of picks will help even out a roster that’s likely to be top-heavy on the cap with Rodgers able to attract stars to town, and guys already on the roster likely to ascend with him and, thus, command big contracts.
It’s fun to think about, that’s for sure. That said, I think the Packers are winning the Super Bowl. And if they do, it stands to reason that Rodgers won’t wind up going anywhere.
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