Pre-Post June Aaron Rodgers Trade

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

a year ago

If we look at the salary cap implications of the trade happening before June or post June as basic accounting, I think it leads to some interesting ideas.

Aaron Rodgers traded before June 1st → $40,313,570 in 2023
Aaron Rodgers traded after June 1st → $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024

I think it is safe to say the Packers would prefer acceptable 2023 draft compensation AND to consume the dead cap hit in 2023 salary cap, yes? I can fall in line with that, however, I do not think it's the end of the world for the Packers to do a post June trade. And here is why.

NOTE: Teams have until May 1st to use 5th Year Designation. QB Jordan Love → $20.2m against the 2024 salary cap -- guaranteed.

Pre June 1st Rodgers Trade

Safe to say if Rodgers is traded before May 1st, the Packers absolutely use 5th year designation on Jordan Love, right?
Rodgers cap hit is consumed solely in 2023 cap

Post June 1st Rodgers Trade

Even though I think it's unlikely, I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers and Love go into training camp (or even the season) working on an extension. I think this scenario is highly risky for the Packers. Jordan Love could simply choose to bet on himself and then try to cash in 2024.
Rodgers cap hit $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024
The ~$24m 2023 "savings" (robbing Peter to pay Paul here) could be used on contract extensions or a portion of 2023 cap can be rolled over over into 2024. Browns carried $30m from 2021 into 2022. I would guess with that ~$24m they use it on guys like Rashan Gary, Jordan Love and whomever else.

While I would like the trade to go into July/August just to watch folks lose their mind, I really think the deal parameters are much closer to being final than any of us know. I can't remember a time when a player publicly stated they intended to paly for a different team and the trade didn't happen within days/weeks though, haha.

I do think if Rodgers is on the Packers roster 11:59pm on April 30th, that they kind of gain some leverage. I think the leverage tilts towards the Packers because they have their QB in camp while the Jets do not. Although, how do you keep Rodgers from doing something that could cause injury? And if he is injured, doe that money become guaranteed? Also, I am not in the belief that Rodgers showing up to camp rattles the cages of the Packers.

It is fun to speculate on all the scenarios even unlikely as they may be. If I had to bet on things, I would bet that Rodgers is traded during the draft and Packers use 5th year option on Love. Gosh, if he's not traded during the draft, the scenarios are fascinating!

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wpr
Preferred Member

a year ago

I have been thinking the trade to whatever team it is takes place on June 1. AR12 hates OTAs so he will be fine with the delay. Packers get to spread the dead cap hit out so it's helpful to them. New team gets to keep all their 2023 draft picks so they can spin it as a win to their fans base.

beast
Select Member

a year ago

Based on NFL rules and the way contracts are always always set up, an extension would most likely free currently year cap space...

So there is no need to free up cap space, to complete a second action that also frees up cap space... but some people can't mentally understand this.

You can do an extension without needing to free up any current year cap space.

Now if you actually want to use more current year cap space, then sign someone not currently on the team... like say CB Casey Hayward whom just got released. Hayward is a zone CB whom used to specialist in the slot and we currently basically only run zone coverage now and the coaches don't want to put Alexander in the slot.

Should we resign Hayward? Probably not... but a one year contract, or a contract with almost no signing bonus, will take up more current year cap space, then an extension that normally frees more current year cap space than it uses.

Martha Careful
Member

a year ago

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

I have to confess, I get really confused with the cap situations.

That notwithstanding, if we are in a "zero sum game" in that sometime we have to absorb the $40.3mm cap hit, let's take it now, and take our lumps. We aren't going anywhere this year anyway.

We should keep our expectations low, get a year of experience under Love's belt, see if any of our linemen can play RT, then have alot more flexibility ($24mm plus however much the cap might grow in 2024) to address needs in free agency and have better draft position into what is supposed to be a strong draft class.

If the zero sum game assumption is incorrect, please disregard the post.

Go Packers!!!!

earthquake
Member

a year ago

Originally Posted by: Martha Careful

That's my understanding of it as well and I agree, they should take the entire hit in 2023 and see what they have with this young team, and then be more aggressive next year when they have more cap space. Potentially using that cap space to sign a veteran QB if Love looks really bad, and draft another QB to develop. But hopefully, Love looks decent and they can use free agency to build around him in 2024.

blank

beast
Select Member

a year ago

Exactly, it's a zero sum game. If you plan on using additional cap space in 2023, then it might matter. But the biggest way to use up additional 2023 cap space is to sign people that are currently not on the roster, such as FAs and draft picks.

Packers basically skipped out on signing FAs already, and they already seem to have enough for the draft picks. So there is no need to go out of your way to create more.

Simply get the best offer you can for Rodgers (that should be the focus), no matter if that's before or after June. As the post June stuff doesn't effect much unless you plan to sign a good number of FAs in 2023, and so far, they haven't seemed to be interested in doing that.

dfosterf
Veteran Member

a year ago

First number is 2023 cap, 2nd number is 2024 cap. In millions.
Bak 21.3 40.5
Clark 12.9 27.4
Gary 10.8 God knows what (GKW)
Alexander 10.7 24.3
Jones 8.1 17.1
Savage 7.9 GKW
Smith 6.3 16.5
Campbell 5.5 14.4
Douglas 4.4 11.6
Nijman 4.3 GKW
Love 3.9 GKW

Admittedly, I was looking at the pretty girls in 3rd grade arithmetic class, but that doesn't look too good to me for cap room in 2024.

buckeyepackfan
Veteran Member

a year ago

Safe to say if Rodgers is traded before May 1st, the Packers absolutely use 5th year designation on Jordan Love, right?
Rodgers cap hit is consumed solely in 2023 !

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

so can we safely say that The Packers are going to lose 7.3mil in cap space this year?
Aaron was on the books at 33mil.

Trade Savage and that frees up 8mil.

I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!

dhazer
Veteran Member

a year ago

What I find interesting is Green Bay now has $3.5 million in cap space which isn't much but we are done with Rodgers and the Jets are now $18.5 million over the cap lol. This means Corey Davis will be released to free up $10.4 million and maybe Carl Lawson who is cap hit of $15 million if on team but if released his cap hit is only $334,000 so that would free up $15 million. They need that to sign Cobb and Lewis.

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)

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