Statistical playground· Page 2

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

And so, because I am a stubborn cuss who is convinced a good rushing attack must contribute to team success, I decided to check the correlation between rushing yards and winning percentage. My jaw literally dropped when I saw the correlation: a paltry 0.501!

In other words, there is virtually no substantive relation between a good running game and a winning record this season! Maybe all the experts who blather on endlessly how "good teams commit to the run" are flat-out wrong.

"mattresell" wrote:

When it comes to rushing and winning, I think you'll find a stronger correlation by simply looking at yards per attempt.

Rushing attempts would probably have a strong correlation, but you run into the problem of correlation not always equaling causation. Teams don't win because they have a high number of rushing attempts. Rather, teams have a high number of rushing attempts because they're winning. If you're up by 14 in the 4th quarter, you're likely to just pound the ball, thus inflating your number of attempts.

NOTE: Great thread idea. I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

On that note, I will honor this suggestion, and move my gas meter / access to apt. building math question down to the complaint dept. in the back alley. There is an entire forum's worth of lunacy to discuss on my issue.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#12

I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"mattresell" wrote:

I implore the mods to move any such posts into a separate thread. :pukeright:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#13

Are we talking about a correlation coefficient of 0.501? That is moderately strong. Remember that the correlation coefficient has a range [-1,1]. Two random variables (e.g. # of rushing yards and wins) are independent when the correlation is 0. Hence, 0.5 is moderately strong correlation.

"TheEngineer" wrote:

Thank you for this statistics lesson, TheEngineer. I've never formally taken statistics. I'm just so used to professors demanding correlation coefficients in the 0.999+ range on my calibration curves, that I've come to deprecate CORRCO's below 0.98 or so.

I appreciate the reminder that CORRCO's don't always have to be in the pristine range.

And yes, just to reiterate what mattresell said, Correlation does not imply causality. It's purely an interesting pursuit for nerds like . . . well . . . like those of us posting in this thread.
:reindeer:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#14

Check the stats for rushing attempts.

"IronMan" wrote:

The correlation for rushing attempts vs. winning percentage is even worse: 0.322. Even after fitting a 6th-degree polynomial curve to this data, the correlation was only 0.402. There's a lot of noise in this data.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#15

Now this is really interesting. The correlation between winning percentage and offensive INTs thrown is a whopping 0.157. The most that can be said about it this season is that there is that winning percentage is slightly negatively proportional to INTs thrown (which makes intuitive sense).

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#16

I think it's safe to say there isn't much of a correlation between TD passes and winning percentage either: It comes out to 0.0712.

San Diego and New Orleans are leading the league in TD passes but both have losing records. The Titans are tied for third-lowest TD passes in the league and have the best record. Go figure.

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#17

An engineer, a physicist, and a statistician were moose hunting in northern Canada.
After a short walk through the marshes they spotted a HUGE moose 150 meters away.
The engineer raised his gun and fired at the moose. A puff of dust showed that the bullet landed 3 meters to the right of the moose.
The physicist, realizing that there was a substantial breeze that the engineer did not account for, aimed to the left of the moose and fired.
The bullet landed 3 meters to the left of the moose.

The statistician jumped up and down and screamed "We got him! We got him!"

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#18

Caught ya Dave! [-X

I'm keeping my eyes on you! :icon_smile:

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

#19

lol lol It was an ACCIDENT. I swear!!

I was trying to reply to your post, and instead wound up in your "business."

Sorry.

Too many new buttons :thumbleft:

CDNRodgersfan
Registered

16 years ago

#20

Vikes that was funny. I needed that as reading this thread has left me feeling that I might of dropped out of school to early. LOL

Important Information:

The PACKERSHOME uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. More Details Close

Fan Shout

wpr (5h) : I thought KC already won

Zero2Cool (15h) : If you wanna post about the Super Bowl, please, by all means, open a topic. They are free this month! 😁

Zero2Cool (15h) : There doesn't need to be a topic. There's a playoff prediction thread.

packerfanoutwest (15h) : and there no SB contest over in the other Packer forum, either

buckeyepackfan (16h) : #2Officially Retires!

beast (16h) : Probably no SB topic as people are wore out talking about the Chiefs, Refs and Eagles

Zero2Cool (16h) : Packers reportedly have their new LB coach, promoting Sean Duggan to that role

Zero2Cool (20h) : WR Cooper Kupp is being traded.

packerfanoutwest (4-Feb) : why is there no SB Prediction topic?

Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : Anthony Perkins spent 2024 as a defensive quality-control coach with the Packers.

Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : Packers lose another assistant.

Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : Defensive Player of the Year and Browns star Myles Garrett has requested a trade.

Zero2Cool (3-Feb) : deleted all my browser history and autofill and passwords. gonna be fun!

packerfanoutwest (3-Feb) : too funny

packerfanoutwest (3-Feb) : Lions QB Jared Goff was the offensive MVP

packerfanoutwest (3-Feb) : for the Pro Bowl, which is flag football

Zero2Cool (2-Feb) : Rather, the murder WAS covered up to prevent ...

Zero2Cool (2-Feb) : JFK murder was a cover-up to prevent war with Cuba/Russia.

Martha Careful (1-Feb) : I have always admired the pluck of the man

Zero2Cool (1-Feb) : I remember thinking he was going to be something good.

Mucky Tundra (1-Feb) : The Dualing Banjo!

Zero2Cool (31-Jan) : Jets have named Chris Banjo as their special teams coordinator, Former Packers player

Zero2Cool (31-Jan) : Jaguars have hired Anthony Campanile as their DC. We lose coach

Zero2Cool (30-Jan) : QB coach Sean Mannion

Zero2Cool (30-Jan) : DL Coach DeMarcus Covington

dfosterf (30-Jan) : from ft Belvoir, Quantico and points south. Somber reminder of this tragedy at Reagan Nat Airport

dfosterf (30-Jan) : So eerily quiet here in Alexandria. I live in the flight path of commercial craft coming from the south and west, plus the military craft

dfosterf (30-Jan) : So eeri

Mucky Tundra (30-Jan) : Now that's a thought, maybe they're looking at the college ranks? Maybe not head coaches but DC/assistant DCs with league experience?

beast (30-Jan) : College Coaches wouldn't want that publicly, as it would hurt recruiting and they might not get the job.

beast (30-Jan) : I thought they were supposed to publicly announce them, at least the NFL ones. Hafley was from college, so I believe different rules.

Mucky Tundra (30-Jan) : Who knows who they're interviewing? I mean, nobody knew about Hafley and then out of nowhere he was hired

beast (30-Jan) : I wonder what's taking so long with hiring a DL coach, 2 of the 3 known to interview have already been hired elsewhere.

Zero2Cool (27-Jan) : Packers coach Matt LaFleur hires Luke Getsy as senior assistant, extends Rich Bisaccia's deal

Zero2Cool (27-Jan) : Chiefs again huh? I guess another Super Bowl I'll be finding something else to do.

Mucky Tundra (27-Jan) : Chiefs Eagles...again...sigh

dfosterf (27-Jan) : Happy Birthday Dave!

Mucky Tundra (27-Jan) : happy birthday dhazer

TheKanataThrilla (26-Jan) : Exactly buck...Washington came up with the ball. It is just a shitty coincidence one week later

buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : I forgot, they corrected the call a week later. Lol btw HAPPY BIRTHDAY dhazer!

buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : That brings up the question, why wasn't Nixon down by contact? I think that was the point Kanata was making.

buckeyepackfan (26-Jan) : Turnovers rule, win the turnover battle, win the game.

packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : well, he was

TheKanataThrilla (26-Jan) : Eagles down by contact on the fumble....fuck you NFL

Mucky Tundra (26-Jan) : I think this games over

beast (26-Jan) : Eagles sure get a lot of fumbles on kickoffs

Mucky Tundra (26-Jan) : This game looks too big for Washington

packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : that being said, The Ravens are the Browns

packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : Browns, Dolphins have longest AFC Championship droughts

packerfanoutwest (26-Jan) : As of today, Cowboys have longest NFC Championship drought,

Please sign in to use Fan Shout

2024 Packers Schedule

Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM

Eagles

29 - 34

Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM

COLTS

16 - 10

Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM

Titans

30 - 14

Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM

VIKINGS

29 - 31

Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM

Rams

24 - 19

Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM

CARDINALS

34 - 13

Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM

TEXANS

24 - 22

Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM

Jaguars

30 - 27

Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM

LIONS

14 - 24

Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM

Bears

20 - 19

Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM

49ERS

38 - 10

Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM

DOLPHINS

30 - 17

Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM

Lions

31 - 34

Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM

Seahawks

30 - 13

Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM

SAINTS

34 - 0

Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM

Vikings

25 - 27

Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM

BEARS

22 - 24

Sunday, Jan 12 @ 3:30 PM

Eagles

10 - 22