Statistical playground· Page 2

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

And so, because I am a stubborn cuss who is convinced a good rushing attack must contribute to team success, I decided to check the correlation between rushing yards and winning percentage. My jaw literally dropped when I saw the correlation: a paltry 0.501!

In other words, there is virtually no substantive relation between a good running game and a winning record this season! Maybe all the experts who blather on endlessly how "good teams commit to the run" are flat-out wrong.

"mattresell" wrote:

When it comes to rushing and winning, I think you'll find a stronger correlation by simply looking at yards per attempt.

Rushing attempts would probably have a strong correlation, but you run into the problem of correlation not always equaling causation. Teams don't win because they have a high number of rushing attempts. Rather, teams have a high number of rushing attempts because they're winning. If you're up by 14 in the 4th quarter, you're likely to just pound the ball, thus inflating your number of attempts.

NOTE: Great thread idea. I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

On that note, I will honor this suggestion, and move my gas meter / access to apt. building math question down to the complaint dept. in the back alley. There is an entire forum's worth of lunacy to discuss on my issue.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#12

I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"mattresell" wrote:

I implore the mods to move any such posts into a separate thread. :pukeright:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#13

Are we talking about a correlation coefficient of 0.501? That is moderately strong. Remember that the correlation coefficient has a range [-1,1]. Two random variables (e.g. # of rushing yards and wins) are independent when the correlation is 0. Hence, 0.5 is moderately strong correlation.

"TheEngineer" wrote:

Thank you for this statistics lesson, TheEngineer. I've never formally taken statistics. I'm just so used to professors demanding correlation coefficients in the 0.999+ range on my calibration curves, that I've come to deprecate CORRCO's below 0.98 or so.

I appreciate the reminder that CORRCO's don't always have to be in the pristine range.

And yes, just to reiterate what mattresell said, Correlation does not imply causality. It's purely an interesting pursuit for nerds like . . . well . . . like those of us posting in this thread.
:reindeer:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#14

Check the stats for rushing attempts.

"IronMan" wrote:

The correlation for rushing attempts vs. winning percentage is even worse: 0.322. Even after fitting a 6th-degree polynomial curve to this data, the correlation was only 0.402. There's a lot of noise in this data.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#15

Now this is really interesting. The correlation between winning percentage and offensive INTs thrown is a whopping 0.157. The most that can be said about it this season is that there is that winning percentage is slightly negatively proportional to INTs thrown (which makes intuitive sense).

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#16

I think it's safe to say there isn't much of a correlation between TD passes and winning percentage either: It comes out to 0.0712.

San Diego and New Orleans are leading the league in TD passes but both have losing records. The Titans are tied for third-lowest TD passes in the league and have the best record. Go figure.

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#17

An engineer, a physicist, and a statistician were moose hunting in northern Canada.
After a short walk through the marshes they spotted a HUGE moose 150 meters away.
The engineer raised his gun and fired at the moose. A puff of dust showed that the bullet landed 3 meters to the right of the moose.
The physicist, realizing that there was a substantial breeze that the engineer did not account for, aimed to the left of the moose and fired.
The bullet landed 3 meters to the left of the moose.

The statistician jumped up and down and screamed "We got him! We got him!"

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#18

Caught ya Dave! [-X

I'm keeping my eyes on you! :icon_smile:

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

#19

lol lol It was an ACCIDENT. I swear!!

I was trying to reply to your post, and instead wound up in your "business."

Sorry.

Too many new buttons :thumbleft:

CDNRodgersfan
Registered

16 years ago

#20

Vikes that was funny. I needed that as reading this thread has left me feeling that I might of dropped out of school to early. LOL

Important Information:

The PACKERSHOME uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. More Details Close

Fan Shout

dfosterf (19h) : It's my one day deal complaint dept. on shareholder meeting day

dfosterf (20h) : Probably a homer access credential intimidation kinda thing

dfosterf (20h) : Meathead "journalists" skip this, concentrating on operational revenue when convenient. They switch when net revenue is more favorable.

dfosterf (20h) : Resulting in an actual drop of net revenue of 12.5%. She is from Minnesota. Just sayin'

dfosterf (20h) : Any plans to hold Maureen Smith (CFO) accountable for a 95% drop in investment revenue?

Mucky Tundra (21h) : In your face, HBO!

Mucky Tundra (21h) : @ByRyanWood Mark Murphy: “A great source of pride of mine is that we were never on Hard Knocks.”

Mucky Tundra (21h) : *years

Mucky Tundra (21h) : @mattschneidman Mark Murphy says he anticipates “many Packers games” being played in Germany, Ireland and/or the U.K. over the next 5-10 yea

dfosterf (21h) : *cafeteria* I have hit my head also, so I sympathize

dfosterf (21h) : Possibly hit his head leaning into the glass protecting the food in the cafateria

dfosterf (21h) : Maybe a low flying drone

dfosterf (21h) : Did Savion Williams run into a goalpost or something?

Mucky Tundra (21h) : also, no bueno when a guy starts getting concussions right off the bat in his career

Zero2Cool (22h) : Concussion is worse. Banks probably vet off day via back booboo claim

Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @AndyHermanNFL Jordy Nelson out at camp today. No word if he’s in play for one of the two open roster spots ; )

dfosterf (25-Jul) : Is that better or worse than Banks bad back?

Zero2Cool (25-Jul) : Savion concussion ... not good.

packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Aaron Rodgers’s first pass of first team period was picked off

Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : tbh I didn't hear of his passing

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Cosby Show. Malcom Jamal Warner I think is real name

Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : I was thinking of Ozzy and Hulk

Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Who's Theo?

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : How is Theo alliteration?

Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Bad week for people whose names are alliterations

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Hulk Hogan gone too.

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Oh, it's toe injury

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Hope it's not serious. that would stink

dfosterf (24-Jul) : Sounds like an ankle not a knee for Fields

dfosterf (24-Jul) : Ya Flaccp on Browns

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Maybe Tyrod Taylor instead

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : He's on Browns, right?

dfosterf (24-Jul) : They would probably go with Flacco is my guess if Fields out

dfosterf (24-Jul) : Fleece 'em again!

Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Malik Willis might be someone Jets come after

packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Packers introduce 1923-inspired classic uniform, leather-look helmet

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Both LB Quay Walker and Rookie DB Micah Robinson have passed their physicals

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Happy to see site feels more snappy snappy

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : No sir. I did not.

dfosterf (23-Jul) : You didn't get free childcare when you were at work?

wpr (23-Jul) : These guys make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Pay for their own childcare.

dfosterf (23-Jul) : 2nd issue. Number 1 issue was no gameday childcare. 1 of 3 teams not providing it

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Suppose if locker room is main issue, we sitting pretty

wpr (23-Jul) : I thought so Mucky. In those useless player polls GB always rates high overall. Locker is a part of it.

Mucky Tundra (23-Jul) : Wasn't the locker room just updated like 6 or 7 years ago?

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : I have forum updated on different site. We'll see how this one goes before going to that

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Elgton Jenkins has a back injury, is expect to end contract dispute

wpr (23-Jul) : It's funny the PA complained about the locker room. It wasn't that long ago it was top shelf. Things change in a hurry.

wpr (23-Jul) : The site is much more better.

Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : NFLPA report said Packers lockerroom needed upgrade. Whining bout where you change?

Please sign in to use Fan Shout

2025 Packers Schedule

Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM

LIONS

Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM

COMMANDERS

Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM

Browns

Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM

Cowboys

Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM

BENGALS

Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM

Cardinals

Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM

Steelers

Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM

PANTHERS

Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM

EAGLES

Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM

Giants

Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM

VIKINGS

Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM

Lions

Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM

BEARS

Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM

Broncos

Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM

Bears

Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM

RAVENS

Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM

Vikings