Statistical playground· Page 2

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

And so, because I am a stubborn cuss who is convinced a good rushing attack must contribute to team success, I decided to check the correlation between rushing yards and winning percentage. My jaw literally dropped when I saw the correlation: a paltry 0.501!

In other words, there is virtually no substantive relation between a good running game and a winning record this season! Maybe all the experts who blather on endlessly how "good teams commit to the run" are flat-out wrong.

"mattresell" wrote:

When it comes to rushing and winning, I think you'll find a stronger correlation by simply looking at yards per attempt.

Rushing attempts would probably have a strong correlation, but you run into the problem of correlation not always equaling causation. Teams don't win because they have a high number of rushing attempts. Rather, teams have a high number of rushing attempts because they're winning. If you're up by 14 in the 4th quarter, you're likely to just pound the ball, thus inflating your number of attempts.

NOTE: Great thread idea. I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

On that note, I will honor this suggestion, and move my gas meter / access to apt. building math question down to the complaint dept. in the back alley. There is an entire forum's worth of lunacy to discuss on my issue.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#12

I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"mattresell" wrote:

I implore the mods to move any such posts into a separate thread. :pukeright:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#13

Are we talking about a correlation coefficient of 0.501? That is moderately strong. Remember that the correlation coefficient has a range [-1,1]. Two random variables (e.g. # of rushing yards and wins) are independent when the correlation is 0. Hence, 0.5 is moderately strong correlation.

"TheEngineer" wrote:

Thank you for this statistics lesson, TheEngineer. I've never formally taken statistics. I'm just so used to professors demanding correlation coefficients in the 0.999+ range on my calibration curves, that I've come to deprecate CORRCO's below 0.98 or so.

I appreciate the reminder that CORRCO's don't always have to be in the pristine range.

And yes, just to reiterate what mattresell said, Correlation does not imply causality. It's purely an interesting pursuit for nerds like . . . well . . . like those of us posting in this thread.
:reindeer:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#14

Check the stats for rushing attempts.

"IronMan" wrote:

The correlation for rushing attempts vs. winning percentage is even worse: 0.322. Even after fitting a 6th-degree polynomial curve to this data, the correlation was only 0.402. There's a lot of noise in this data.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#15

Now this is really interesting. The correlation between winning percentage and offensive INTs thrown is a whopping 0.157. The most that can be said about it this season is that there is that winning percentage is slightly negatively proportional to INTs thrown (which makes intuitive sense).

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#16

I think it's safe to say there isn't much of a correlation between TD passes and winning percentage either: It comes out to 0.0712.

San Diego and New Orleans are leading the league in TD passes but both have losing records. The Titans are tied for third-lowest TD passes in the league and have the best record. Go figure.

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#17

An engineer, a physicist, and a statistician were moose hunting in northern Canada.
After a short walk through the marshes they spotted a HUGE moose 150 meters away.
The engineer raised his gun and fired at the moose. A puff of dust showed that the bullet landed 3 meters to the right of the moose.
The physicist, realizing that there was a substantial breeze that the engineer did not account for, aimed to the left of the moose and fired.
The bullet landed 3 meters to the left of the moose.

The statistician jumped up and down and screamed "We got him! We got him!"

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#18

Caught ya Dave! [-X

I'm keeping my eyes on you! :icon_smile:

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

#19

lol lol It was an ACCIDENT. I swear!!

I was trying to reply to your post, and instead wound up in your "business."

Sorry.

Too many new buttons :thumbleft:

CDNRodgersfan
Registered

16 years ago

#20

Vikes that was funny. I needed that as reading this thread has left me feeling that I might of dropped out of school to early. LOL

Important Information:

The PACKERSHOME uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. More Details Close

Fan Shout

beast (9h) : Though I stop following pro bowl years ago

beast (9h) : I thought the pro game was before the Super Bowl?

packerfanoutwest (9h) : ok now for the Pro Bowl Game in Hawaii

TheKanataThrilla (10h) : If I was Philly I would try to end it instead of punting it

Mucky Tundra (10h) : VICTORY! We have (moral) victory!

TheKanataThrilla (11h) : Hey they mentioned that we 3-peted

Mucky Tundra (11h) : seems to me the 49ers should have traded Aiyuk when they had the chance

Mucky Tundra (11h) : if the Eagles get it down to the 1, do they Tush Push or give it to Barkley?

TheKanataThrilla (11h) : 49ers have a money problem if they want to sign their QB

Mucky Tundra (11h) : Wait for real? Didn't he just get an extension two years ago?

Zero2Cool (11h) : 49ers gonna trade Deebo. Interesting

TheKanataThrilla (11h) : Replays always never seem to show the holdings

TheKanataThrilla (11h) : Great throw by Hurts

Mucky Tundra (11h) : Where Carter falls prey to bad off the field influences (to be clear, not saying he'd clip someone though)

Mucky Tundra (11h) : Had Carter not gone to Philly were they already had a lot of old college friends, he ends up in a similar spot to Aaron Hernandez

Mucky Tundra (11h) : I think some of his coaches told scouts to stay away

Mucky Tundra (11h) : the street racing incident+conditioning and motivation problems

beast (12h) : Then Carter was street racing, where the other car crashed and people died... and other teams were scared to pick Carter for some reason

beast (12h) : I think the Saints traded up, giving their next year 1st to the Eagles, and then they sucked and Eagles got the 10th overall pick

packerfanoutwest (12h) : wtf Barkley?

TheKanataThrilla (12h) : Getting Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round in 2023 was pretty darn good

Mucky Tundra (12h) : for some reason i'm thinking of a draft where the Eagles where in the mid 20s and a top player fell all the way to them

TheKanataThrilla (12h) : I think so. I would need to look it up. Think it may have been Carolina's pick.

Mucky Tundra (12h) : i'm not sure who i'm thinking of now

Mucky Tundra (12h) : oh fuck me i messed that up

Zero2Cool (12h) : Jordan Davis was 13th overall

Zero2Cool (12h) : Carter was 9th overall

Zero2Cool (12h) : Eagles had 15th and 10th selections, moved to 13 and 9 to get Davis and Carter back to back

Zero2Cool (12h) : Eagles traded up for Carter, didn't they?

Mucky Tundra (12h) : Obviously he was a huge risk but getting a top 5 talent on the dline in the mid 20s is fortuitous

Mucky Tundra (12h) : Jalen Carter falling into their lap certainly helps

TheKanataThrilla (12h) : And we could only wish to have this type of D

TheKanataThrilla (12h) : It's not like Philly has had low draft picks, but has managed to get themselves a top notch pass rush. We spend so much draft capital of D

packerfanoutwest (12h) : another crap halftime show

TheKanataThrilla (12h) : I think it is over, but then I think of Atlanta and want Philly to go in with the same intensity in the second half

Mucky Tundra (12h) : And with a Pass Rush that might as well be on a milk cartoon and no Jaire

Martha Careful (12h) : I cant help but feel good about how well the Packers D played in Philly during the playoffs

Mucky Tundra (12h) : this game is over

Mucky Tundra (13h) : This might be the kill shot here

Mucky Tundra (13h) : oh that's such a bad penalty for KC after getting the 3rd down stop

TheKanataThrilla (13h) : Philly DL has come to play

TheKanataThrilla (13h) : Ceoper DeJean with the INT scored...bad memories of draft night

Mucky Tundra (13h) : ok scratch that

Mucky Tundra (13h) : Game feels like last years Super Bowl: 49ers started off in control, moved the ball well but didn't have much of a lead to show for it

TheKanataThrilla (13h) : KC jumped and they call it on Eagles. WTF refs

TheKanataThrilla (13h) : If he was offside why did you let him pop the QB?

TheKanataThrilla (13h) : I like that Eagles are controlling time of possession so far.

Mucky Tundra (13h) : If the Eagles are going to win, this is how they do it: jump all over the Chiefs and don't let it turn into a close one

TheKanataThrilla (14h) : Bad throw created that penalty.

TheKanataThrilla (14h) : Amazed Philly got that hit to the helmet call.

Please sign in to use Fan Shout

2024 Packers Schedule

Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM

Eagles

29 - 34

Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM

COLTS

16 - 10

Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM

Titans

30 - 14

Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM

VIKINGS

29 - 31

Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM

Rams

24 - 19

Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM

CARDINALS

34 - 13

Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM

TEXANS

24 - 22

Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM

Jaguars

30 - 27

Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM

LIONS

14 - 24

Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM

Bears

20 - 19

Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM

49ERS

38 - 10

Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM

DOLPHINS

30 - 17

Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM

Lions

31 - 34

Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM

Seahawks

30 - 13

Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM

SAINTS

34 - 0

Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM

Vikings

25 - 27

Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM

BEARS

22 - 24

Sunday, Jan 12 @ 3:30 PM

Eagles

10 - 22