Statistical playground· Page 2

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

And so, because I am a stubborn cuss who is convinced a good rushing attack must contribute to team success, I decided to check the correlation between rushing yards and winning percentage. My jaw literally dropped when I saw the correlation: a paltry 0.501!

In other words, there is virtually no substantive relation between a good running game and a winning record this season! Maybe all the experts who blather on endlessly how "good teams commit to the run" are flat-out wrong.

"mattresell" wrote:

When it comes to rushing and winning, I think you'll find a stronger correlation by simply looking at yards per attempt.

Rushing attempts would probably have a strong correlation, but you run into the problem of correlation not always equaling causation. Teams don't win because they have a high number of rushing attempts. Rather, teams have a high number of rushing attempts because they're winning. If you're up by 14 in the 4th quarter, you're likely to just pound the ball, thus inflating your number of attempts.

NOTE: Great thread idea. I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

On that note, I will honor this suggestion, and move my gas meter / access to apt. building math question down to the complaint dept. in the back alley. There is an entire forum's worth of lunacy to discuss on my issue.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#12

I think we should add a disclaimer that if you're not into statistical analysis, please just ignore this thread and let us have our nerd fun. I don't want this to become a thread debating the merits of statistical analysis.

"mattresell" wrote:

I implore the mods to move any such posts into a separate thread. :pukeright:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#13

Are we talking about a correlation coefficient of 0.501? That is moderately strong. Remember that the correlation coefficient has a range [-1,1]. Two random variables (e.g. # of rushing yards and wins) are independent when the correlation is 0. Hence, 0.5 is moderately strong correlation.

"TheEngineer" wrote:

Thank you for this statistics lesson, TheEngineer. I've never formally taken statistics. I'm just so used to professors demanding correlation coefficients in the 0.999+ range on my calibration curves, that I've come to deprecate CORRCO's below 0.98 or so.

I appreciate the reminder that CORRCO's don't always have to be in the pristine range.

And yes, just to reiterate what mattresell said, Correlation does not imply causality. It's purely an interesting pursuit for nerds like . . . well . . . like those of us posting in this thread.
:reindeer:

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#14

Check the stats for rushing attempts.

"IronMan" wrote:

The correlation for rushing attempts vs. winning percentage is even worse: 0.322. Even after fitting a 6th-degree polynomial curve to this data, the correlation was only 0.402. There's a lot of noise in this data.

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#15

Now this is really interesting. The correlation between winning percentage and offensive INTs thrown is a whopping 0.157. The most that can be said about it this season is that there is that winning percentage is slightly negatively proportional to INTs thrown (which makes intuitive sense).

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member Topic Starter

16 years ago

#16

I think it's safe to say there isn't much of a correlation between TD passes and winning percentage either: It comes out to 0.0712.

San Diego and New Orleans are leading the league in TD passes but both have losing records. The Titans are tied for third-lowest TD passes in the league and have the best record. Go figure.

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#17

An engineer, a physicist, and a statistician were moose hunting in northern Canada.
After a short walk through the marshes they spotted a HUGE moose 150 meters away.
The engineer raised his gun and fired at the moose. A puff of dust showed that the bullet landed 3 meters to the right of the moose.
The physicist, realizing that there was a substantial breeze that the engineer did not account for, aimed to the left of the moose and fired.
The bullet landed 3 meters to the left of the moose.

The statistician jumped up and down and screamed "We got him! We got him!"

vikesrule
Registered

16 years ago

#18

Caught ya Dave! [-X

I'm keeping my eyes on you! :icon_smile:

dfosterf
Veteran Member

16 years ago

#19

lol lol It was an ACCIDENT. I swear!!

I was trying to reply to your post, and instead wound up in your "business."

Sorry.

Too many new buttons :thumbleft:

CDNRodgersfan
Registered

16 years ago

#20

Vikes that was funny. I needed that as reading this thread has left me feeling that I might of dropped out of school to early. LOL

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