earthquake
4 years ago
I was looking through Aaron Rodger’s career stats today. I know that he throws interceptions at a historically low rate, but it was interesting to see that he loses fumbles pretty rarely as well. I don't recall seeing this specific stat discussed before, so let’s have a look at how Rodgers compares to Favre and Brady when it comes to total turnovers (INTS + fumbles lost). While his sample size is tiny in comparison, I think he’s the most equivalent player to Aaron Rodgers currently playing, so I’ve included Mahomes as well.

Aaron Rodgers:
TDs: 408 (2 per game)
Turnovers: 123 (INT: 89 + FUM: 35)
TD to turnover rate: 3.3:1
TD to INT rate: 4.6:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 11.7:1
ATT to turnover rate: 53:1
COMP to turnover rate: 35:1

Brett Favre
TDs: 508 (1.7 per game)
Turnovers: 409 (INT: 336 + FUM: 73)
TD to turnover rate: 1.2:1
TD to INT rate: 1.5:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 7:1
ATT to turnover rate: 25:1
COMP to turnover rate: 15:1

Tom Brady
TDs: 577 (1.9 per game)
Turnovers: 239 (INT: 190 + FUM 49)
TD to turnover rate: 2.4:1
TD to INT rate: 3:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 11.8:1
ATT to turnover rate: 44:1
COMP to turnover rate: 28:1

Patrick Mahomes
TDs: 114 (2.5 per game)
Turnovers: 30 (INT:24 + FUM: 6)
TD to turnover rate: 3.8:1
TD to INT rate: 4.8:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 19:1
ATT to turnover rate: 56:1
COMP to turnover rate: 37:1

Of the grizzled vets, Rodgers has a significantly higher TD to turnover rate, despite throwing more TDs per game, so it's not like he's being overly cautious.

It’s no surprise that Brett Favre does comparatively poorly here, I believe he still holds the records for most interceptions and fumbles all time.

Tom Brady loses fumbles at a very slightly lower rate than Rodgers, which is perhaps not surprising since he isn't as mobile so he tends to get rid of the ball faster, though his lack of mobility makes that figure all the more impressive.

Patrick Mahomes’ numbers are better than Rodgers’ on all fronts, but again, we’ve got a small sample size for him. He’s bound to have a down year or 3 at some point if he plays long enough. But if he can keep up something like this pace it will be remarkable.
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beast
4 years ago
Mahomes got the advantage that both he has Andy Reid play calling for him, and Reid so far as made sure that offense weapons have been overly stocked and ready to go... where all the other QBs have gone through periods where it's only one or two bigger weapons.

Mahomes has had some of the best TEs and best/fastest WRs (with good hands) in the NFL his entire career so far, plus running game at times as well.
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago
This is pretty interesting. Thanks for putting it together.
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Rockmolder
4 years ago
That's quite impressive. Both from Rodgers and your work to compile this list.

Would be interesting to see this in relation to yards and pass attempts, as well. Would do it myself, but I have to get the chicken out of my slow cooker.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
4 years ago

That's quite impressive. Both from Rodgers and your work to compile this list.

Would be interesting to see this in relation to yards and pass attempts, as well. Would do it myself, but I have to get the chicken out of my slow cooker.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



It's always some kind of an excuse isn't Rocky? If it's not the collapse of the Euro, it's a chicken in the pot. 😉
I hope you and yours have an absolutely amazing 2021. See you on the other side. Cheers.
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earthquake
4 years ago

Mahomes got the advantage that both he has Andy Reid play calling for him, and Reid so far as made sure that offense weapons have been overly stocked and ready to go... where all the other QBs have gone through periods where it's only one or two bigger weapons.

Mahomes has had some of the best TEs and best/fastest WRs (with good hands) in the NFL his entire career so far, plus running game at times as well.

Originally Posted by: beast 



Yes, and the Cheifs have benefited from having Mahomes on a rookie deal. Now that Mahomes has his mega-contract, they will likely have a more difficult time keeping the roster stocked with quality players. It will be interesting to see how the next 5 years or so go.

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earthquake
4 years ago

That's quite impressive. Both from Rodgers and your work to compile this list.

Would be interesting to see this in relation to yards and pass attempts, as well. Would do it myself, but I have to get the chicken out of my slow cooker.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Thanks! I've added attempts and completions to turnover rates as well. These seem to be generally in line with the other ratios but it's interesting to see too. Rodgers turns the ball over once every 53 throws and once every 35 completions.
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Rockmolder
4 years ago

It's always some kind of an excuse isn't Rocky? If it's not the collapse of the Euro, it's a chicken in the pot. 😉

Originally Posted by: wpr 



That's some fighting words right there. Don't let me have to hit you, old man.

I hope you and yours have an absolutely amazing 2021. See you on the other side. Cheers.



Likewise!


Thanks! I've added attempts and completions to turnover rates as well. These seem to be generally in line with the other ratios but it's interesting to see too. Rodgers turns the ball over once every 53 throws and once every 35 completions.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



That's pretty intesresting. I thought Mahomes' TD to int ratio would be higher, but maybe his attempts to turnoverrate lower, as he's known for throwing it deep quite often and quite well. Must be my own bias because I watch complete Packers games, including all the dunk-offs, and only highlights of the Chiefs, where you only see Mahomes bombing in one TD pass after another.
jdlax
4 years ago
Rodgers uber alles!
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beast (19-May) : Supposedly he has to take his image, and name off of it... but otherwise could keep selling wine if he wanted to.
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