earthquake
4 years ago
I was looking through Aaron Rodger’s career stats today. I know that he throws interceptions at a historically low rate, but it was interesting to see that he loses fumbles pretty rarely as well. I don't recall seeing this specific stat discussed before, so let’s have a look at how Rodgers compares to Favre and Brady when it comes to total turnovers (INTS + fumbles lost). While his sample size is tiny in comparison, I think he’s the most equivalent player to Aaron Rodgers currently playing, so I’ve included Mahomes as well.

Aaron Rodgers:
TDs: 408 (2 per game)
Turnovers: 123 (INT: 89 + FUM: 35)
TD to turnover rate: 3.3:1
TD to INT rate: 4.6:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 11.7:1
ATT to turnover rate: 53:1
COMP to turnover rate: 35:1

Brett Favre
TDs: 508 (1.7 per game)
Turnovers: 409 (INT: 336 + FUM: 73)
TD to turnover rate: 1.2:1
TD to INT rate: 1.5:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 7:1
ATT to turnover rate: 25:1
COMP to turnover rate: 15:1

Tom Brady
TDs: 577 (1.9 per game)
Turnovers: 239 (INT: 190 + FUM 49)
TD to turnover rate: 2.4:1
TD to INT rate: 3:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 11.8:1
ATT to turnover rate: 44:1
COMP to turnover rate: 28:1

Patrick Mahomes
TDs: 114 (2.5 per game)
Turnovers: 30 (INT:24 + FUM: 6)
TD to turnover rate: 3.8:1
TD to INT rate: 4.8:1
TD to fumbles lost rate: 19:1
ATT to turnover rate: 56:1
COMP to turnover rate: 37:1

Of the grizzled vets, Rodgers has a significantly higher TD to turnover rate, despite throwing more TDs per game, so it's not like he's being overly cautious.

It’s no surprise that Brett Favre does comparatively poorly here, I believe he still holds the records for most interceptions and fumbles all time.

Tom Brady loses fumbles at a very slightly lower rate than Rodgers, which is perhaps not surprising since he isn't as mobile so he tends to get rid of the ball faster, though his lack of mobility makes that figure all the more impressive.

Patrick Mahomes’ numbers are better than Rodgers’ on all fronts, but again, we’ve got a small sample size for him. He’s bound to have a down year or 3 at some point if he plays long enough. But if he can keep up something like this pace it will be remarkable.
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beast
4 years ago
Mahomes got the advantage that both he has Andy Reid play calling for him, and Reid so far as made sure that offense weapons have been overly stocked and ready to go... where all the other QBs have gone through periods where it's only one or two bigger weapons.

Mahomes has had some of the best TEs and best/fastest WRs (with good hands) in the NFL his entire career so far, plus running game at times as well.
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago
This is pretty interesting. Thanks for putting it together.
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Rockmolder
4 years ago
That's quite impressive. Both from Rodgers and your work to compile this list.

Would be interesting to see this in relation to yards and pass attempts, as well. Would do it myself, but I have to get the chicken out of my slow cooker.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
4 years ago

That's quite impressive. Both from Rodgers and your work to compile this list.

Would be interesting to see this in relation to yards and pass attempts, as well. Would do it myself, but I have to get the chicken out of my slow cooker.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



It's always some kind of an excuse isn't Rocky? If it's not the collapse of the Euro, it's a chicken in the pot. 😉
I hope you and yours have an absolutely amazing 2021. See you on the other side. Cheers.
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earthquake
4 years ago

Mahomes got the advantage that both he has Andy Reid play calling for him, and Reid so far as made sure that offense weapons have been overly stocked and ready to go... where all the other QBs have gone through periods where it's only one or two bigger weapons.

Mahomes has had some of the best TEs and best/fastest WRs (with good hands) in the NFL his entire career so far, plus running game at times as well.

Originally Posted by: beast 



Yes, and the Cheifs have benefited from having Mahomes on a rookie deal. Now that Mahomes has his mega-contract, they will likely have a more difficult time keeping the roster stocked with quality players. It will be interesting to see how the next 5 years or so go.

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earthquake
4 years ago

That's quite impressive. Both from Rodgers and your work to compile this list.

Would be interesting to see this in relation to yards and pass attempts, as well. Would do it myself, but I have to get the chicken out of my slow cooker.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



Thanks! I've added attempts and completions to turnover rates as well. These seem to be generally in line with the other ratios but it's interesting to see too. Rodgers turns the ball over once every 53 throws and once every 35 completions.
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Rockmolder
4 years ago

It's always some kind of an excuse isn't Rocky? If it's not the collapse of the Euro, it's a chicken in the pot. 😉

Originally Posted by: wpr 



That's some fighting words right there. Don't let me have to hit you, old man.

I hope you and yours have an absolutely amazing 2021. See you on the other side. Cheers.



Likewise!


Thanks! I've added attempts and completions to turnover rates as well. These seem to be generally in line with the other ratios but it's interesting to see too. Rodgers turns the ball over once every 53 throws and once every 35 completions.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



That's pretty intesresting. I thought Mahomes' TD to int ratio would be higher, but maybe his attempts to turnoverrate lower, as he's known for throwing it deep quite often and quite well. Must be my own bias because I watch complete Packers games, including all the dunk-offs, and only highlights of the Chiefs, where you only see Mahomes bombing in one TD pass after another.
jdlax
4 years ago
Rodgers uber alles!
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Zero2Cool (6h) : Yes, the Pro Bowl. It was played Sunday before Super Bowl from 2010-2022
packerfanoutwest (6h) : pro bowl
Zero2Cool (6h) : From 2010 to 2022, it was played on the Sunday before the Super Bowl
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beast (16h) : Though I stop following pro bowl years ago
beast (16h) : I thought the pro game was before the Super Bowl?
packerfanoutwest (16h) : ok now for the Pro Bowl Game in Hawaii
TheKanataThrilla (17h) : If I was Philly I would try to end it instead of punting it
Mucky Tundra (17h) : VICTORY! We have (moral) victory!
TheKanataThrilla (17h) : Hey they mentioned that we 3-peted
Mucky Tundra (18h) : seems to me the 49ers should have traded Aiyuk when they had the chance
Mucky Tundra (18h) : if the Eagles get it down to the 1, do they Tush Push or give it to Barkley?
TheKanataThrilla (18h) : 49ers have a money problem if they want to sign their QB
Mucky Tundra (18h) : Wait for real? Didn't he just get an extension two years ago?
Zero2Cool (18h) : 49ers gonna trade Deebo. Interesting
TheKanataThrilla (18h) : Replays always never seem to show the holdings
TheKanataThrilla (18h) : Great throw by Hurts
Mucky Tundra (18h) : Where Carter falls prey to bad off the field influences (to be clear, not saying he'd clip someone though)
Mucky Tundra (18h) : Had Carter not gone to Philly were they already had a lot of old college friends, he ends up in a similar spot to Aaron Hernandez
Mucky Tundra (18h) : I think some of his coaches told scouts to stay away
Mucky Tundra (18h) : the street racing incident+conditioning and motivation problems
beast (18h) : Then Carter was street racing, where the other car crashed and people died... and other teams were scared to pick Carter for some reason
beast (18h) : I think the Saints traded up, giving their next year 1st to the Eagles, and then they sucked and Eagles got the 10th overall pick
packerfanoutwest (18h) : wtf Barkley?
TheKanataThrilla (19h) : Getting Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round in 2023 was pretty darn good
Mucky Tundra (19h) : for some reason i'm thinking of a draft where the Eagles where in the mid 20s and a top player fell all the way to them
TheKanataThrilla (19h) : I think so. I would need to look it up. Think it may have been Carolina's pick.
Mucky Tundra (19h) : i'm not sure who i'm thinking of now
Mucky Tundra (19h) : oh fuck me i messed that up
Zero2Cool (19h) : Jordan Davis was 13th overall
Zero2Cool (19h) : Carter was 9th overall
Zero2Cool (19h) : Eagles had 15th and 10th selections, moved to 13 and 9 to get Davis and Carter back to back
Zero2Cool (19h) : Eagles traded up for Carter, didn't they?
Mucky Tundra (19h) : Obviously he was a huge risk but getting a top 5 talent on the dline in the mid 20s is fortuitous
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TheKanataThrilla (19h) : And we could only wish to have this type of D
TheKanataThrilla (19h) : It's not like Philly has had low draft picks, but has managed to get themselves a top notch pass rush. We spend so much draft capital of D
packerfanoutwest (19h) : another crap halftime show
TheKanataThrilla (19h) : I think it is over, but then I think of Atlanta and want Philly to go in with the same intensity in the second half
Mucky Tundra (19h) : And with a Pass Rush that might as well be on a milk cartoon and no Jaire
Martha Careful (19h) : I cant help but feel good about how well the Packers D played in Philly during the playoffs
Mucky Tundra (19h) : this game is over
Mucky Tundra (19h) : This might be the kill shot here
Mucky Tundra (20h) : oh that's such a bad penalty for KC after getting the 3rd down stop
TheKanataThrilla (20h) : Philly DL has come to play
TheKanataThrilla (20h) : Ceoper DeJean with the INT scored...bad memories of draft night
Mucky Tundra (20h) : ok scratch that
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