Zero2Cool
3 years ago

If the only point you're trying to make is that tanking isn't a good way to build a team, I'm not sure I have much to argue about there. There are few examples of teams tanking, and fewer still cases where we know the poor performances were intentional (we can only assume). As far as analyzing tanking in a meaningful way, it's next to impossible: small sample size, can't verify actions. It's difficult to say one way or another.

Now, to the examples that were purposefully excluded from the above post:

The 2003 Giants finished 6-10 and got the #4 pick (2 wins more than the Chargers, who picked #1). They were not a good team, having lost 8 straight but winning their final game to close out the season. To be fair, winning that last game is a solid indicator that they were not tanking for a better draft pick.

The 1982 Broncos finished 2-7 (strike-shortened season) and got the #4 pick. They were not a good team.

Having a poor record and a top-5 draft pick makes it a lot easier to trade up to #1. If these were good teams, it likely would have been too costly (draft-pick wise) to make these trades. In both cases, bad teams were turned around, at least in part, by trading for the top player/quarterback in the draft. This is directly counter to the point that you're trying to make, which is why you're trying to justify excluding these examples.

The whole premise is somewhat dubious, and you're cherry-picking data to try and prove a point you've already decided is correct. It's hard to view this sort of argument with anything but skepticism.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



You're completely obfuscating data and statistics to prove something that is obviously not true. Tanking to get the first overall pick to use on a QB is not a good team building strategy. You can you try to slice it in any way you want, but the fact is, it is NOT a good approach. Sorry, I think you're being obtuse on this one for the sake of having something to argue about and I'm done.
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Rockmolder
3 years ago
Pretty sure no one can make any irrefutable conclusions based on this data, because there's way too many variables. The biggest ones being that every draft class is different and every team is different.

If Lawrence turns out as good a player as people think right now and the Jets have more talent than they're showing, the conclusion will be they would've been better off with that 1st round pick than two meaningless wins.

If he doesn't live up to expectations and the Jets remain as bad as they've been for about the whole decade, the conclusion is it wouldn't have mattered.
Cheesey
3 years ago
Like I have said before, just because a guy is touted as “the next best thing” doesn’t mean he will be a great NFL player.
There are hundreds of players picked every year, and the majority of them never amount to much.
Some first round picks end up as busts. In fact, a lot of them do just that.
So to supposedly tank to get a higher pick doesn’t mean the guy they do pick will be great.
What was Aaron Rodgers, the 23rd pick? All the teams that had a shot at him didn’t think he was worth being picked earlier. Do you think they feel that way now?
But who knows if he would have ended up a star if he had gone to a different team? Had he been thrown right into the fire, or had other coaches, maybe he would have been a bust.
He fell into the perfect situation for him (and us).
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Zero2Cool
3 years ago
22 QBs were drafted in the first round from 2009-2016.

None remain with the team that drafted them.


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Cheesey
3 years ago

22 QBs were drafted in the first round from 2009-2016.

None remain with the team that drafted them.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Wow. I guess that proves what I said in the previous post.
And I bet those that were picked were touted as “the next great QB”.
I was a big football card collector back in the late 1980s and 1990s. I had so many rookie cards of players that were supposed to end up as great, only to flame out.
Now those cards aren’t worth the cardboard they are printed on.
Being a NFL GM isn’t as easy as some think it is.
Hindsight is easy for armchair quarterbacks.
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Zero2Cool
3 years ago

Wow. I guess that proves what I said in the previous post.
And I bet those that were picked were touted as “the next great QB”.
I was a big football card collector back in the late 1980s and 1990s. I had so many rookie cards of players that were supposed to end up as great, only to flame out.
Now those cards aren’t worth the cardboard they are printed on.
Being a NFL GM isn’t as easy as some think it is.
Hindsight is easy for armchair quarterbacks.

Originally Posted by: Cheesey 



I got into card collecting late 80's and was obsessed in 90's. I had a paper route and after I got paid I would immediately proceed to Card Coin Corner just off Lombardi Ave and buy up packs of cards. I remember getting this card and my dad said "This guy is gonna be something! Look at him pumping those arms on the attack" or something to that affect.
 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.

The stat about the 22 QB's and first round. It just adds to what I was saying. Tanking to get the first overall pick does absolutely nothing to increase your chances of a Super Bowl. Yes, picking first in each round is an advantage, so there is that. However, you were the WORST team in the NFL for a reason. And if you were an average team and tanked, that means you have a losers mentality. Winning is a habit. So is losing.

It annoys me how people are so quick to degrade others for trying to win.
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Cheesey
3 years ago

I got into card collecting late 80's and was obsessed in 90's. I had a paper route and after I got paid I would immediately proceed to Card Coin Corner just off Lombardi Ave and buy up packs of cards. I remember getting this card and my dad said "This guy is gonna be something! Look at him pumping those arms on the attack" or something to that affect.
 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.

The stat about the 22 QB's and first round. It just adds to what I was saying. Tanking to get the first overall pick does absolutely nothing to increase your chances of a Super Bowl. Yes, picking first in each round is an advantage, so there is that. However, you were the WORST team in the NFL for a reason. And if you were an average team and tanked, that means you have a losers mentality. Winning is a habit. So is losing.

It annoys me how people are so quick to degrade others for trying to win.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Makes me think of the next big thing, “Andre Ware”. I pulled several of his rookie cards and thought it was a great thing at the time. The only reason I think of him is his name. I would think “Long Andre Ware”,.....you know.....what you wear on a cold Wisconsin winter morning!😁😂
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beast (12-Nov) : He's a review guy
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Zero2Cool (11-Nov) : Ok, will do.
wpr (11-Nov) : Kevin, donate it to a local food pantry or whatever she wants to do with it. Thanks
wpr (11-Nov) : Kevin,
Zero2Cool (11-Nov) : Wayne, got your girl scout order.
dfosterf (11-Nov) : I believe Zero was being sarcastic
dfosterf (11-Nov) : Due to that rookie kicker Jake Bates that Zero said "he didn't want anyway". 58 yarder to tie the game, 52 yarder to win it. In fairness,
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Lions escape with a win
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : and now Goff looking better
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Goff with ANOTHER INT
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : and now Stroud throwing INTs
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Goff having an ATROCIOUS game
wpr (11-Nov) : Happy birthday Corps. Ever faithful. Thanks dfosterf.
Mucky Tundra (10-Nov) : stiff armed by Baker Mayfield for about 5-7 yards and still managed to get a pass off
Mucky Tundra (10-Nov) : Nick Bosa
wpr (8-Nov) : Jets are Packers (L)East
Zero2Cool (8-Nov) : Jets released K Riley Patterson and signed K Anders Carlson to the practice squad.
wpr (8-Nov) : Thanks guys
Mucky Tundra (7-Nov) : Happy Birthday wpr!
Zero2Cool (7-Nov) : Anders Carlson ... released by 49ers
dfosterf (7-Nov) : Happy Birthday!😊😊😊
wpr (7-Nov) : Thanks Kevin.
Zero2Cool (7-Nov) : Happy Birthday, Wayne! 🎉🎂🥳
beast (7-Nov) : Edge Rushers is the same... it's not the 4-3 vs 3-4 change, it's the Hafley's version of the 4-3... as all 32 teams are actually 4-2
Zero2Cool (6-Nov) : OLB to DE and player requests trade. Yet folks say they are same.
beast (5-Nov) : In other news, the Green Bay Packers have signed Zero2Cool to update their website 😋 jk
beast (5-Nov) : Might just re-sign the kicker we got
beast (5-Nov) : Are there any kickers worth drafting next year?
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Preston Smith for Malik Willis
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Getting a 7th rounder from the Stillers
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : At least we get 7th round pick now!! HELLO NEW KICKER
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Steelers getting a premier lockdown corner!
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Packers are trading edge rusher Preston Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers, per sources.
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Preston Smith traded to the Steelers!!!!
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : CB Marshon Lattimore to Commanders
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Bears are sending RB Khalil Herbert to the Bengals, per sources.
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : ZaDarius Smith continues his "north" tour.
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Let the Chiefs trade a 5th for him
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Nearing 30, large contract, nope.
Martha Careful (5-Nov) : any interest in Marshon Lattimore?
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : What does NFL do if they're over cap?
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : They've been able to constantly push it out through extensions, void years etc but they're in the hole by 72 million next year I believe
hardrocker950 (4-Nov) : Seems the Saints are always in cap hell
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : Saints HC job is not an envious one; gonna be in cap hell for 3 years
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