Zero2Cool
4 years ago

If the only point you're trying to make is that tanking isn't a good way to build a team, I'm not sure I have much to argue about there. There are few examples of teams tanking, and fewer still cases where we know the poor performances were intentional (we can only assume). As far as analyzing tanking in a meaningful way, it's next to impossible: small sample size, can't verify actions. It's difficult to say one way or another.

Now, to the examples that were purposefully excluded from the above post:

The 2003 Giants finished 6-10 and got the #4 pick (2 wins more than the Chargers, who picked #1). They were not a good team, having lost 8 straight but winning their final game to close out the season. To be fair, winning that last game is a solid indicator that they were not tanking for a better draft pick.

The 1982 Broncos finished 2-7 (strike-shortened season) and got the #4 pick. They were not a good team.

Having a poor record and a top-5 draft pick makes it a lot easier to trade up to #1. If these were good teams, it likely would have been too costly (draft-pick wise) to make these trades. In both cases, bad teams were turned around, at least in part, by trading for the top player/quarterback in the draft. This is directly counter to the point that you're trying to make, which is why you're trying to justify excluding these examples.

The whole premise is somewhat dubious, and you're cherry-picking data to try and prove a point you've already decided is correct. It's hard to view this sort of argument with anything but skepticism.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



You're completely obfuscating data and statistics to prove something that is obviously not true. Tanking to get the first overall pick to use on a QB is not a good team building strategy. You can you try to slice it in any way you want, but the fact is, it is NOT a good approach. Sorry, I think you're being obtuse on this one for the sake of having something to argue about and I'm done.
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Rockmolder
4 years ago
Pretty sure no one can make any irrefutable conclusions based on this data, because there's way too many variables. The biggest ones being that every draft class is different and every team is different.

If Lawrence turns out as good a player as people think right now and the Jets have more talent than they're showing, the conclusion will be they would've been better off with that 1st round pick than two meaningless wins.

If he doesn't live up to expectations and the Jets remain as bad as they've been for about the whole decade, the conclusion is it wouldn't have mattered.
Cheesey
4 years ago
Like I have said before, just because a guy is touted as “the next best thing” doesn’t mean he will be a great NFL player.
There are hundreds of players picked every year, and the majority of them never amount to much.
Some first round picks end up as busts. In fact, a lot of them do just that.
So to supposedly tank to get a higher pick doesn’t mean the guy they do pick will be great.
What was Aaron Rodgers, the 23rd pick? All the teams that had a shot at him didn’t think he was worth being picked earlier. Do you think they feel that way now?
But who knows if he would have ended up a star if he had gone to a different team? Had he been thrown right into the fire, or had other coaches, maybe he would have been a bust.
He fell into the perfect situation for him (and us).
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago
22 QBs were drafted in the first round from 2009-2016.

None remain with the team that drafted them.


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Cheesey
4 years ago

22 QBs were drafted in the first round from 2009-2016.

None remain with the team that drafted them.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Wow. I guess that proves what I said in the previous post.
And I bet those that were picked were touted as “the next great QB”.
I was a big football card collector back in the late 1980s and 1990s. I had so many rookie cards of players that were supposed to end up as great, only to flame out.
Now those cards aren’t worth the cardboard they are printed on.
Being a NFL GM isn’t as easy as some think it is.
Hindsight is easy for armchair quarterbacks.
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago

Wow. I guess that proves what I said in the previous post.
And I bet those that were picked were touted as “the next great QB”.
I was a big football card collector back in the late 1980s and 1990s. I had so many rookie cards of players that were supposed to end up as great, only to flame out.
Now those cards aren’t worth the cardboard they are printed on.
Being a NFL GM isn’t as easy as some think it is.
Hindsight is easy for armchair quarterbacks.

Originally Posted by: Cheesey 



I got into card collecting late 80's and was obsessed in 90's. I had a paper route and after I got paid I would immediately proceed to Card Coin Corner just off Lombardi Ave and buy up packs of cards. I remember getting this card and my dad said "This guy is gonna be something! Look at him pumping those arms on the attack" or something to that affect.
 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.

The stat about the 22 QB's and first round. It just adds to what I was saying. Tanking to get the first overall pick does absolutely nothing to increase your chances of a Super Bowl. Yes, picking first in each round is an advantage, so there is that. However, you were the WORST team in the NFL for a reason. And if you were an average team and tanked, that means you have a losers mentality. Winning is a habit. So is losing.

It annoys me how people are so quick to degrade others for trying to win.
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Cheesey
4 years ago

I got into card collecting late 80's and was obsessed in 90's. I had a paper route and after I got paid I would immediately proceed to Card Coin Corner just off Lombardi Ave and buy up packs of cards. I remember getting this card and my dad said "This guy is gonna be something! Look at him pumping those arms on the attack" or something to that affect.
 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.

The stat about the 22 QB's and first round. It just adds to what I was saying. Tanking to get the first overall pick does absolutely nothing to increase your chances of a Super Bowl. Yes, picking first in each round is an advantage, so there is that. However, you were the WORST team in the NFL for a reason. And if you were an average team and tanked, that means you have a losers mentality. Winning is a habit. So is losing.

It annoys me how people are so quick to degrade others for trying to win.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Makes me think of the next big thing, “Andre Ware”. I pulled several of his rookie cards and thought it was a great thing at the time. The only reason I think of him is his name. I would think “Long Andre Ware”,.....you know.....what you wear on a cold Wisconsin winter morning!😁😂
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Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : With LVN that is; need to see what happens in the next practice
Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : beast, reading about what happened, it sounded like one of those "two guys collide and are moving slow afterwards" type of deals
beast (12-Aug) : I believe Musgrave has been injured every single season since at least a Sophomore in highschool
packerfanoutwest (12-Aug) : Matt LaFleur: “Highly unlikely” Jordan Love plays more this preseason
dfosterf (12-Aug) : Doubs, Savion Williams, LVN, Musgrave all banged up to one degree or another, missing one here I forget
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : RB Tyrion Davis-Price is signing with the Green Bay Packers.
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : zero help, dominated. preseason
beast (12-Aug) : QB Jordan Love has surgery
beast (12-Aug) : Martha said Morgan had a lot of help, I didn't watch the OL so I can't say.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers LT Jordan Morgan did not allow a single pressure across 23 pass-blocking snaps vs. Jets last night, per PFF
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : With buckeye and the reasonable couple, we're currently sitting at 10
buckeyepackfan (10-Aug) : Just posted to re-up on our FFL.
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dfosterf (10-Aug) : Just gotta figure out how.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Could have been a worse start, so there is that.
beast (10-Aug) : Yeah, someone tell the Packers football season has started, seems like they weren't ready for it
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : Sooooooo many penalties
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : It may only be preseason, but this game is a trip to the dentist
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do bad -- FREAK OUT!!!!!!
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do good -- eh only preseason
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Well that half was fun
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Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : 13 minutes away from kickkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkoffff
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Had Celebration of Life for my uncle up north. wicked rain hope it dont come south
Mucky Tundra (9-Aug) : THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ARE PLAYING FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!!!!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!!
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Woo-hoo
TheKanataThrilla (9-Aug) : NFL Network is broadcasting the game tonight, but not in Canada. Not sure why as no local television is showing the game.
beast (8-Aug) : But the Return from IR designations had to be applied by the 53 man cutdown.
beast (8-Aug) : It's a new rule, so it's not clear, but my understanding was that they could be IR'd at any time
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : *had to be IRed at 53
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : beast, I thought the designate return from IR players had to be IR at cutdowns to 53, not before
beast (8-Aug) : It's a brand new rule, either last season or this season, prior, all pre-season IRs were done for the season
beast (8-Aug) : But the Packers would have to use one for their return from IR spots on him, when they cut down to 53.
beast (8-Aug) : I think the NFL recently changed the IR rules, so maybe the season might not be over for OL Glover.
Zero2Cool (8-Aug) : Packers star Howton, first NFLPA prez, dies at 95 😔
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Apparently it is too complicated for several to follow your simple instructions, but I digress
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Zero- Did you see what I posted about Voice of Reason and his wife? She posted over at fleaflicker that they are both "In"
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : Well, not crazy, it makes sense. Crazy I didn't notice/find it earlier
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : it's crazy how one stored procedure to get data bogged everything down for speed here
dfosterf (7-Aug) : to herd cats or goldfish without a bowl. They reminded me of the annual assembly of our fantasy league
dfosterf (7-Aug) : out on a field trip, outfitting them with little yellow smocks. Most of the little folk were well behaved, but several were like trying
dfosterf (7-Aug) : Yesterday my wife and I spent the afternoon on the waterfront here in Alexandria, Va. A daycare company took about 15 three/four year olds
wpr (7-Aug) : seems faster. yay
dfosterf (7-Aug) : Wife of reason posted on the in/out thread on fleaflicker that both she and vor are in
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : This page was generated in 0.135 seconds.
Mucky Tundra (7-Aug) : Tbh, I can never tell the difference in speed unless it's completely shitting the bed
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