mi_keys
13 years ago

There is a syntactical ambiguity to my statement, which could be interpreted as saying that it was likely that neither Number 1 seed would make it to the Super Bowl. What I meant to say is that there was an 87 percent chance that the Super Bowl would feature either one or no Number 1 seed. In other words, there was only a 13 percent chance that both top seeds would be in the Super Bowl.

It is very common that a Super Bowl features a Number 1 seed. It is quite rare that it features both Number 1 seeds. That pattern held true this year as well.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



I know what you were saying. I just wanted to point out how likely it has been that one does make it, providing another look at it. The point is if you are not a number one seed, by no means is your season doomed; if you are a number one seed you historically stand a good chance of making it.
Born and bred a cheesehead
Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
If almost 88 percent of Super Bowls have featured a Number 1 seed, can we say that a Number 1 seed has approximately a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs? Or am I missing something?
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mi_keys
13 years ago

If almost 88 percent of Super Bowls have featured a Number 1 seed, can we say that a Number 1 seed has approximately a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs? Or am I missing something?

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



No, that wouldn't take into account the years in which two were featured. 54.5% of number 1 seeds have made the Super Bowl since 1978.

I should make it clear I did my count hastily so I could have miss-coded a team's seed here or there. That said the percentages should be close even if I have made a mistake.
Born and bred a cheesehead
RainX
13 years ago
Looking at our remaining schedule, and even with our defense as playing as mediocre as it has been, 14-2 and getting HFA is definitely doable. I don't think anyone would deny a big reason the Saints won that game two years ago in the NFC Championship against the Vikings was because of that 12th man they had in the Superdome. I'd frankly want no part of them there on the road if we can avoid it. We were able to go into Atlanta last year admittedly and throttle them, but they didn't have the offense to keep up with us like New Orleans does this year. Looking at the better teams in the NFC right now (SF, NO, NYG, & DET), getting them in Lambeau in January would be a big advantage for us. Kind of crazy to think, despite making the playoffs the last two seasons and winning the Super Bowl, the team hasn't played a home playoff game since 2007.
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Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Bears get OL fixed amd we might have a problem
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Pretty sure they already have scouting reports on guys who aren't even starting for their college team. The future is now for me.
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : I tend to let Gute and Co. Worry about the future.
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Jaire and Evans Williams are both ACTIVE! Good news.
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : The badgers really need to change the whole offensive scheme. No draws no screens plus the quarterback is marginal
Cheesey (17-Nov) : If the Badgers had a decent QB, they would have won. The guy can't hit a wide open receiver
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : chop block
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : there was a very questionable job Block call that upon viewing replay was very borderline
beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Badgers got hosed vs Oregon
packerfanoutwest (16-Nov) : damn,he hasn't played since week 2
Mucky Tundra (15-Nov) : poor guy can't catch a break
wpr (15-Nov) : wow. That three different things for the kid.
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