Mike Holgrom was in his 5th year.
Jimmy Johnson was in his 4th and 5th year for the SBs.
I don't mean it to be an exact science or anything. I just think sometimes, for whatever reason, change is good. Look at Dallas, they looked dead before they fired Wade - and their doing it with Kitna. I'm not saying Mike McCarthy sucks or should never coach again, I'm just saying after 6 years, what would be the point of keeping him?
I just think once a coach has had 5-6 years, why not make a change, especially if the team is not improving every year. Like this is Holgrom:
GNB 1994 9 7 0 .563 2nd in NFC Central 1 1 .500 Lost to Dallas Cowboys in NFC Divisional Game.
GNB 1995 11 5 0 .688 1st in NFC Central 2 1 .667 Lost to Dallas Cowboys in NFC Championship Game.
GNB 1996 13 3 0 .813 1st in NFC Central 3 0 1.000 Super Bowl XXXI Champions.
This was Jimmy Johnson:
DAL 1989 1 15 0 6.3 5th in NFC East - - - -
DAL 1990 7 9 0 43.8 4th in NFC East - - - -
DAL 1991 11 5 0 68.8 2nd in NFC East 1 1 50 Lost to Detroit Lions in NFC Divisional Game.
DAL 1992 13 3 0 81.3 1st in NFC East 3 0 100 Super Bowl XXVII Champions.
Overall, bottom line, when you look at Mike McCarthy based on last 5 years, do you think he's capable of a SB? Are you confident? If your not, then can him, if you are, keep him. Simple as that. I think I've seen enough to give him one more year.
And about Billick, after he won that SB, the Ravens gave him another 7 or 8 years. Why? If he did not revive that SB magic after year 4, why 5, why 6, why 7, etc. As soon as Jim Harbaugh takes over, they're suddenly back to be power-houses.
Like Fisher made the SB in 1999. Why this additional 10+ years. He's not a bad coach but may be its time for a change. Same with John Fox, not a bad coach but may be time for a change, etc.