Hello. I'm a Falcons fan, so I can give you a pretty decent view from your opponent. :thumbleft:
On the topic of our defense, and specifically how we rank against the run and the pass, I think the numbers are very misleading.
Against the run, the Falcons are 21st in yards per attempt, but they're sixth overall in rushing yards.
Against the pass, the Falcons are 24th in the NFL in total yards.
The reason for this is that the Falcons, who's offense is sixth in scoring, jump out to early leads very often. By doing this, they force teams to abandon the run in order to play catch up. So teams are racking up the pass yards as they attempt to catch up after we take the lead.
Another important stat is that the only two teams have allowed fewer plays of 20+ yards than the Falcons. This is all a product of their gameplan.
The Falcons are all about clock management, and dominating time of possession. The Falcons are tied with the Packers and a few other teams for second place with 15 interceptions. They are fourth in the NFL in turnover ratio and second in the league in time of possession.
Remember that we are sixth in the league in scoring, and yet we're 25th in passing plays that total more than 20 yards. Our drives are long and methodical. What this all adds up to is a team that jumps out to an early lead and plays very conservative defense, giving a lot of cushion off the line of scrimmage, and preventing big plays from happening. We take the ball away quite a bit, and we don't give it back.
Once we have a lead, our defense forces opponents to dink and dunk their way down the field (remember our defense is third in plays resulting in more than 20 yards). So while teams abandon the run and rack up the pass yards with drives that might result in a touchdown, we're still forcing you to take up a good bit of time off the clock before you get those points. Then you have to kick it off to our offense who doesn't turn it over and likes to hold on to the ball for a very long time.
Even with that, our defense is seventh in scoring defense (I am aware that the Packers are second), so it's not like scoring points comes easy because of how conservative we play. We're actually pretty talented on that side of the ball, though we are young in many positions.
So my point is that the Falcons really do dictate a lot of what their opponents do throughout the game. Even if our pass defense looks terrible on paper, we're usually in complete control of the game. Against the Ravens a couple of weeks ago it almost came back to bight us, but luckily Matt Ryan is very adept at running a two-minute offense and getting those last minute-game winning drives.
The Packers are the without a doubt best team the Falcons have played all year in my opinion. I expect us to start the game with the no-huddle offense, much like the we did against Baltimore. I think that if it's a shoot out, the Packers can definitely win. But if the Packers don't score early and often, I like the Falcons' chances. That said, I'm not supremely confident that the Packers won't do what it takes to pull this one out. Sorry for the uber-long post. I really like your board.
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