This is it· Page 6 · PACKERSHOME

warhawk
Senior Member Topic Starter

15 years ago

A weird thought just occurred to me. Is it possible the reason why we have a top-five defense is because our opponents start out with such excellent field position that our defense just doesn't have too many yards to give up? As has been pointed out in other threads, the Bucs had all of two drives of more than 50 yards. Our defense may not have given up many yards, but they didn't have many yards to give. Maybe the numbers are deceiving. I'm not sure how this could be analyzed, though.

"ILikeThePackers39" wrote:

Try spinning it around, though - perhaps some of us aren't seeing the improvements on defense because of the scores and are discounting that field position effect? Thus the top-5 rating isn't misleading, but is an indicator that the defense is playing well, but those short fields are screwing the end result?

Tampa put together, what? One long drive? As someone astutely pointed out in another thread, between the int returns (one pick 6, one to the 7 yl) and the ST fuckups (blocked punt returned for TD, the ridiculous return after Rodgers' rushing TD), the defense was 'responsible' for 14 of 28 points, and those came on drives that started inside our 20. Would I love to think our defense could go in and shut those short-field drives down? Absolutely. Is it realistic or even fair to expect that? Hell, no.

The defense has plenty of room for improvement - there's no question about that, and one key piece to that puzzle is getting the pressure home and getting sacks. But they ARE improved and continuing to get better.

I don't know - perhaps I'm trying to hard to illuminate areas where the team is good. Perhaps you're right and the high ranking is because the yardage totals are artificially low, due to the short fields. Maybe somehow ST will perform well this week and we'll get a better sense of how the defense can perform against a good offensive team.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

No, you are on the right track. Special Teams have been far worse the last two weeks and the stats show the affects of this problem. Two weeks ago we were well within the top ten in both Scoring Defense giving up something like 17 points and Total Yards Allowed we were in the top ten as well.

AFTER these two weeks our Scoring Defense has dropped to 21st at a little over 21 points a game but our Yards Allowed has stayed close to the same.

What's happened to us the last two weeks is pretty simple stuff to see through. You can't give a team like the Vikes excellent field position and far more return yards than you produce yourself and you can't give ANY team 28 points and expect to win.

There are also the hidden negatives of rarely getting decent field position ourselves when receiving a punt or a kickoff. It seems like everytime we do something there is a penalty. Underwood should have been kicked off return teams long ago. He ALWAYS holds somebody anytime we actually get a decent return.

As I have said this is a HUGE game and if we are going to turn anything around we need a reversal of poor ST's play because I believe in most the games we have lost had the return/coverage stats even been close to even we would have won at least a couple of them.

I believe for us to go 6-2 and do anything this year ST's have to win that third phase battle and it's concerning because I am not sure they can do it.

"The train is leaving the station."

Zero2Cool
Elite Member

15 years ago

#52

So im a hater because i brought up a very good point? Where do we rank in sacks or points allowed and turnovers? Also look at the top 2 defenses by yds per game they arent a winning team either hell washington is ranked 6th in least yds per game. we rank 15th in points allowed 29th in sacks and turnovers we are actually pretty good at with 23 of them. Now lets see what it looks like in a few weeks after we play some real offenses.

"dhazer" wrote:

I don't think you're a hater based on your statement about the defense. I just think you're failing to understand the big picture. Fail is a strong word and its not intended. I just lack the thesaurus knowledge that Nonstopdrivel possesses.

I'd like to say the Bengals, Vikings, Vikings are pretty good offensively. I can't say that about the rest of the teams we played. Bad to average at best for the rest. The Bears CAN be good, but too inconsistent.

nerdmann
Premier Member

15 years ago

#53

I'm not aiming for excuses. Just trying to look at the big picture. Rankings are set by teams that play other teams. When we are a head of other teams who've played the same bad teams, I don't see the point in discrediting our success against them.

Our special teams is BAD for our TEAM, but is making our defense look good.

I'm all about pointing out the good and the bad. I'm just wanting us to be real. That's all.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:

I really don't see how they're making the defense "look good." They end up giving up more points, but not necessarily as many yards. Big deal. The defense also gets significantly fewer sack opportunities. Fewer plays in general, so fewer turnover opportunities as well, which is a big skill on this defense.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Zero2Cool
Elite Member

15 years ago

#54

I really don't see how they're making the defense "look good."

"nerdmann" wrote:

I'm not surprised.

Stevetarded
Registered

15 years ago

#55

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Football Outsiders has GB defense ranked 5th and I believe they do adjust it for strength of schedule.

blank

Wade
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#56

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

How does the defense rank in points given up? Wouldn't that give a ballpark estimate of how much the rank-by-yards-given is off?

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)

Wade
Veteran Member

15 years ago

#57

ack...hit submit too early...

anyway, was about to say, if the team is ranked 5 in yards allowed, and ranked, say, 25 in points given up, then they'd be about 15th overall.

(And, yes, for those statistically trained, I know you can't just average apples and oranges that way; my point is that the real ranking is somewhere "in between" what the "yards" say and what the "points" say.

And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member

15 years ago

#58

Our team is ranked 16th with 21.5 points given up per game. I don't think that number takes into consideration special teams points (i.e., returns for touchdown).

warhawk
Senior Member Topic Starter

15 years ago

#59

Our team is ranked 16th with 21.5 points given up per game. I don't think that number takes into consideration special teams points (i.e., returns for touchdown).

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

That's the problem with statistics. They don't always tell the story. In the last two games I know you can take at least 40 points off the backs of the defense unless your going to blame them for 14 yard drives.

I know all defenses suffer statistically from points put up they had nothing to do with but my GOD! In the last two games we have had a punt blocked for a TD, a kickoff return for a TD, a kickoff allowed down to our 14,an INT returned for a TD, an INT returned to our 7 yard line, a couple other LONG kickoff returns and a couple of punts returned at or beyond our 50.

I would like to know how many drives we have given up beyond 75 yards that resulted in a TD. I can think of TWO. That tells me if we just went out and played some dang football, moved the ball at the beginning of games for a change, and made teams go the field vs. giving away points and excellent field position we would be fine.

"The train is leaving the station."

WhiskeySam
Registered

15 years ago

#60

Our team is ranked 16th with 21.5 points given up per game. I don't think that number takes into consideration special teams points (i.e., returns for touchdown).

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&statisticCategory=SCORING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2009&seasonType=REG

Nemo me impune lacessit

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