Why the Green Bay Packers, title contenders, got this right
MAR 12, 2024
March madness commenced at high noon. Deals lit up phones. The Green Bay Packers, an organization that historically rewires its circadian rhythms for a deep sleep on Day 1 of free agency, entered the fray. Legal tampering, this year, was not treated as a rare fungal disease bound to leave welts all over the body.
First, the Packers signed running back Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract.
Next, safety Xavier McKinney inked a four-year, $68 million contract.
When we asked GM Brian Gutekunst at the NFL Combine how viewing this team as a Super Bowl contender would guide his decision-making, he balked. “Not a lot,” he said, adding that he didn’t want to put expectations on the team. Actions always speak loudest. These moves suggest the Packers absolutely do view 2024 as an opportunity to win it all. Which is precisely how they should conduct business after coming within one or two plays of an NFC Championship appearance.
Of course, in the same four-hour period, the Packers also released two players with such gravitas they felt compelled to release a statement with quotes from both the GM and head coach. One goodbye was expected. Left tackle David Bakhtiari had a social-media post and video ready to roll. Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” played to clips of the left tackle burying defenders, acting in Pitch Perfect 2 and engaging in a beer-chugging contest with his good buddy, Aaron Rodgers.
Meanwhile, the other player let go didn’t have time to hire a video editor.
The outright release of Aaron Jones — distinguished human and running back — took a weed-whacker to the emotional heartstrings of fans.
...
Turns out, Green Bay is a perfectly fine destination for high-end free agents. Players around the NFL have been raving about Jordan Love on the public airwaves since the season ended. The opportunity to play for one of the league’s best young quarterbacks is a major selling point.
Jacobs was arguably the best running back on the market. He actively chose Green Bay.
McKinney was arguably the best safety on the market. He chose Green Bay.
It’s not a shock. If you’ve got a rising star at the most important position in sports, players stop worrying about bitter wind chill and lake-effect storms. The Buffalo Bills lured a slew of free agents as Josh Allen ascended to stardom.
Ex-Packers loved the fact that Rodgers blasted the Packers for low-balling veterans at the end of their career. Granted, Ted Thompson and Gutekunst haven’t been perfect. But even judging Rodgers’ point off the names he used himself during that presser — Charles Woodson, Jordy Nelson, Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb, James Jones, John Kuhn, Brett Goode, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde — their batting average is solid. It’s smart for any general manager to say goodbye a year too early, rather than a year too late. That’s how countless teams descend into salary-cap hell and wind up having to push millions of dollars into the future. Who knew the former four-time MVP was such an advocate of pork-barrel spending?
Nor has Rodgers, Assistant GM, worked out for the New York Jets.
Which brings us to Jones.
Showing “Showtyme” the door when talks broke down doesn’t seem to make much sense based off his torrid finish to the 2023 season. He battled a hamstring injury and a sprained MCL, got healthy at the perfect time and exploded for five straight 100-yard games. Nobody in the history of the franchise — not Paul Hornung, Jim Taylor, Jim Brockington or Ahman Green — ever achieved this feat. In three of those games, Jones eclipsed six yards per carry.
He did not resemble a back in decline, at all.
He was the team’s most dynamic weapon.
He’s also a 29-year-old running back who missed six games last season. Exactly three years and two months older than Jacobs.
This is a cold business. One year after slashing his salary by $5 million, the Packers asked Jones to take a 50 percent pay cut, per The Athletic. Considering he has done everything right on and off the field, maybe Gutekunst should’ve made an exception, crossed his fingers and said a few prayers to the Packers gods for good health in 2024. A GM harboring realistic title hopes cannot take this chance. Jacobs struggled behind a hideous Las Vegas Raiders offensive line in 2023, yet did lead the NFL in rushing in 2022 with 1,653 yards on 340 carries with 12 touchdowns.
He’s a reliable receiver, too. Key in Matt LaFleur’s offense, which was finally unveiled in full last season.
This contract isn’t quite what it seems, either. As Pro Football Talk notes, Jacobs’ deal is essentially a one-year pact worth $13.7 million with three one-year options, again befitting of a team eyeing a championship in the present. As long as Jacobs resembles a top-tier back in his prime, Gutekunst can let the contract play out.
Fully expect the Packers to add a back in the draft, too.
For the first time in any of our lives, the Packers are following a Detroit Lions blueprint. Twelve months ago, the Lions endured a similar emotional roller-coaster to reshape their backfield. They let the beloved Jamaal Williams walk, signed David Montgomery and took plenty of shrapnel from fans who loved watching Williams dance in the end zone. To many, this swap didn’t make sense. Williams was fresh off a 1,066-yard, 17-touchdown season. GM Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell were proven prophetic. Whereas Williams’ yards per carry tanked to 2.9 in New Orleans, Montgomery flourished. Two years younger, the power back smashed defenses for 1,015 yards on 219 attempts (4.6 avg.) with 13 touchdowns. He was complemented by explosive rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (182-945-10).
The running game was a strength for the Lions in 2022 — Williams and D’Andre Swift were a good 1-2 punch. In 2023, the Lions dared themselves to be great via Montgomery and Gibbs and came within a fourth-down conversion of the Super Bowl.
Green Bay likely knows short-term pain comes with a major potential payoff.
If any lessons were learned from the Rodgers breakup, it’s that a hard goodbye is often for the best.
Safety was this team’s No. 1 need. And in theory, McKinney is exactly what the Packers have been missing on the back end. The 24-year-old has missed only 7.8 percent of his tackle attempts over his career, per PFF, which ranks 11th among 89 safeties with at least 100 tackles over the last four seasons. He makes plays on the ball, too. In his two full seasons, 2021 and 2023, McKinney totaled eight interceptions and 21 passes defensed. Give Rodgers this much. Dull safety play marred his prime Packers years. Thompson was wrong to believe in the likes of M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian on the back-end. Morgan Burnett was rock solid but rarely a playmaker. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was a pull of the slot machine many games.
If McKinney gets to an NFC title game, maybe he can atone for Clinton-Dix misjudging Russell Wilson’s wounded duck of a 2-point prayer and Burnett’s fateful slide in that 2014 Seattle nightmare.
The decisions this day move the Packers closer toward reaching that game again.
One rivalry has more bite this season, too.
Jones, seeking revenge, will sign a one-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings.