I know I joke a lot about our third round picks being toss-away picks, but it got me thinking. Does Gutekunst draft any round or position well?

I felt Ted Thompson drafted pure football players who often lacked the physical tools to go from being good to being great. And it seems Brian Gutekunst drafts physical specimens with the hope they can become great football players.

Looking over the last 5-6 drafts. I just don't see as many major contributors as I would expect. Yeah, sure, some are weak overall draft classes, but damn.

2018 got us Jaire Alexander plus 2019 first rounder, but what else? Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
2019 is probably the best class thanks to Jenkins and Gary.
2020 could be solid depending on Jordan Love and yes, AJ Dillon and Jon Runyan Jr are good contributors and even earning starting reps.
2021 Eric Stokes came out good in rookie year but kind of fell off and then got injured as sophomore. Heck, the class was so bad somehow Josh Meyers name was spelled incorrectly. Ok, ok, Tedarrell Slaton might be coming on lately.
2022 Quay Walker has proven to be a decent starter. Watson can't do anything but run a nine route. Ok, ok, we got Zach Tom who is looking promising and even Devonte Wyatt has been doing a decent job.

Overall -- I just don't think we should be excited about getting draft picks. Either we are not drafting the right talent, OR we're not able to develop the talent. (eek, maybe it's both?)

I pose that question to YOU!! If you HAD TO PICK one, which is the bigger problem? Talent Selection? Talent Developing?

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Great post... IMO... Clearly talent selections.

2018
ILB Burks was clearly a 4-3 OLB, and weak tackler. While Packers were a 4-3 defense and needed a physical ILB.

WR Moore couldn't catch a cold

OG Cole Madison, forget the mental issue aspect. He came from an "Air Raid" offense. What's the problem with that? The "Air Raid" offense don't even attempt to teach actual NFL techniques or even ask the OL to try to win in pass protection... they teach OL to lose slowly, delay delay delay, not try to stop your guy, just delay them and it's the QB job to get the ball out quickly.

LS Hunter Bradley... why did they select Bradley? He competed against Zach Triner, and post 53 selection rumors said the ST coach wanted Trainer as he was better. Gute kept his draft pick Bradley. Bradley was quickly out of football. Triner went to the Buccaneers and has been there ever since. Maybe the Packers don't lose to the 49ers in the playoffs with the blocked punt if the LS was better.

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That's just one year, I don't want to spend the time breaking down all the years questionable picks.

But maybe look at the 3rd rounders and OL, and other OL trends.

Early on it seemed Gute really liked linemen from SEC and Big 10, which is I wonder if that's why he selected Meyers and Newman over others that were more hyped at the position.

Also all Gute's OL selections are between a certain height, which I believe was 6'4" and 6'6". While liking taller guys is not an issue, seemingly taking anyone not within that range off the board is questionable.

IMO, OL Simon Stepaniak clearly wasn't athletic enough for the NFL, and that was before tearing his ACL before the draft.

In 2019, we picked TE Sternberger one pick before WR Terry McLaurin, I was absolutely screaming at the TV. No idea how McLaurin got picked up so late or Sternberger so early. I think Gute was reaching just to fill a need at TE like he did in 2018 with ILB Burks, 2020 with YE Duguara, 2021 with WR/RB Rodgers (whom is neither), 2022 with OL Rhyan.

Speaking of Rhyan, we had a minor coach from UCLA which might of effected our draft opinion. But Rhyan was maximizing his reach barely being long and athletic enough for college LT, and would have to move to inside in the pros. But to do that, he would have to 1,000% change his style of play, from maximizing his reach to playing completely within himself to get more power, instead as of length. That compete change of technique is going to take a minimum of 3 years.... so in theory we shouldn't write him off yet ... but that's a bad freaking choice to pick so high knowing you aren't going to get anything from him early on, and only be a decent pick if he completely changes his style AND develops. One is bad enough, but both? That's a developmental pick. You don't pick a developmental pick that high unless they have GREAT potential, which I don't believe Rhyan does.


Yes LT Jason Spriggs, CB Josh Jackson, and QB Jordan Love were also developmental picks, that were picked even higher, BUT if they developed, which was questionable, but if they did, they had great potential, that wasn't the case for Rhyan.


To me, it seems like Gute is selecting linemen/TEs too much based on attributes and need, than actual skills on tape.

Some Receivers and Valentine seems to be hits, the athletes, but I don't think the Packers are breaking down film well of the linemen.

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It's a really tough question to answer. As you say some draft classes are better than others.

What makes it very difficult is determining how Gutekunst has done in comparison to the rest of the NFL. I think it would be reasonable to say that most if not all GMs miss on a lot of picks. To get a clear picture of this I think we need grades for all teams, weighted by round and pick. Is there any website that compiles this sort of thing? It seems most draft grades that people publish are right after the picks are taken. So that's not helpful. Occasionally some writers will do grades a few years later, but generally just for a single team, or maybe one round. So we miss out on the context with that.

As Packer fans I think it's easy to get hyper-focused and lose sight of how well or poorly things are going. That's not to say that people shouldn't have opinions, I just find it difficult to quantify them with any kind of certainty.

As to my opinion on Gute, it seems like he does pretty well with his early (1st and 2nd round) picks. His "bad" early picks tend to be average starting-level players (Savage, Myers). Josh Jackson being an exception there. Bad GMs tend to make really bad picks in the early rounds and Gute doesn't seem to do that. Obviously, the 3rd round is a problem. It's much more hit-and-miss in the later rounds, but that's true league-wide. He's probably above average on the whole.

As Kevin said, Jordan Love's progression, or lack thereof, will tell the tale. If Love doesn't last more than a year or two, it's hard to imagine Gute keeping his job. If Love turns out to be an above-average starter, and the promising players from the '22 and '23 drafts turn out to be a quality core for a winning team, I think Gute's resume will look pretty good. But we probably need 2, maybe 3 more years to really know.

I would probably say it's more coaching than scouting at this point that is the problem. But there are too many variables to really know.

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Great questions.....I say talent acquisition.

A casual observation....what guys have we drafted then cut who have done much elsewhere. None come to mind.

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I think EQ is right. If you don't look at all the GMs you can't properly evaluate Gutey. That said I believe it's talent development. So very few players can take the step from the NCAA to the pros. Even fewer of them can become "average" starters. The handful that are elite players league wide are the rare ones.
I base my assumption on developmental issues because when we look at the players many seem to have a year, maybe two where they give us hope that they will blossom into something special. Then nothing. They typically drop off and never get back to what they could have been.
JA, Clark, Stokes even Savage.
Jenkins, Dillion and Myers have had games and parts of seasons that make you think they have put it all together. Other players too that are long gone. If they have grown they would still be here.

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Then look at other GMs, see that they have clearly done better than Gute.... hence the team record.

Look at Myers, then look at the very next OL selected after Myers.

Look at Newman, then look at the very next OL selected after Newman.

Look at Van Laden, then look at the very next OL selected after Van Laden.

Clearly there are good players at the position that Gute is selecting, he's just not selecting the correct ones.

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4 replies plus mine so far. 2 actual votes, one of them mine. You got two choices in a thread basically about the guy making choices.

As to the subject itself. Gute is not good at picking either, imo. I wasn't given the option by the OP, but if I was, I think I'd go with his blind chicken mentioned in the shout.

I think it’s a combination of both. I tend to lean towards the selection of talent though. We just don’t have enough “big nasties” in the trenches. Our team is soft, and I think that’s because of the style of players we have. Probably has something to do with the coaching staff too, but I’m leaning towards Gute.

If Gute gets fired, I’m sure a new GM would want to bring in his own coaching staff pretty soon.

I don’t see Gute getting fired though, at least not after this year.

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🤦

LOL. Always makes me laugh how people buck picking one thing as if there's some consequences to their selection. I get it though. I just gotta laugh.

Anyhow, glad folks are discussing regardless!!!

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I understand what you are saying. Clearly Gute has missed on acquiring talent. But your example is not proof.

You've picked 3 players that were selected by 3 GMs. If Gute hit on every other selection and those GMs failed every time what did it prove? That Gute is human and can't get it right 100% of the time.

We know that's not the real answer either. That's why we would have to look at all the GMs and all their selections for the past 5 years.
If we did we know he wouldn't be #1. But he also wouldn't be #32.

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