beast
  • beast
  • Select Member Topic Starter
2 years ago


Being a sports fan today can feel like floating adrift in a vast sea of statistics. So let’s remember one of the most fundamental pillars of numerical analysis: Correlation is not causation. 

Put simply, this means that a relationship between two actions or conditions does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. If you get a sunburn eating an ice cream cone 95 out of 100 times, it does not follow that you got a sunburn because you ate ice cream. 

Here’s a more relevant example: In the past 10 Super Bowls, at least one team had an elite tight end in seven of them. And in four out of the last five. In three of the last four, *both* teams had top tight ends. We all saw what Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert did last month.

Does this mean that having an elite tight end is the reason teams get to the dance? No, but correlation matters. And when it comes to modern offenses in football, having a difference-making tight end helps more than is often acknowledged. Even in a sport awash in number crunching, the position is undervalued, and the Packers should draft one in the first round this year no matter how many picks they end up with. Here’s why:

The position is a force mulitiplier  — Assigning low positional value to tight ends makes sense if you look at individual production in isolation. But top receiving tight ends open up opportunities for wideouts AND the run game. They stress the defense by enabling more schematic options, especially in the middle of the field. Tight ends that also block well are doubly dangerous, helping to spring running backs and assisting in pass protection. Other positions are force multipliers, too, but tight ends never seem to get the credit. 

Physically, top tight ends force mismatches that require defenses to have specialized DBs or linebackers. Essentially, the defense has to play in nickel, which is the new base for most teams. And those defenders have to have size and speed. Without them, it’s easy pickings for diversified offenses.

Elite tight ends are scarce — Unlike running backs and wideouts, top tier tight ends are a rare commodity. Finding a Kelce, Gronk or Kittle is like winning the lottery. Which is also true for quarterbacks, and look how valuable they are. I am not saying TEs are as important as QBs, just pointing out that when you have scarcity, the value should be higher than it otherwise would be, a market inefficiency that creates opportunity. Here’s a thought experiment: If you could have either Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill today, which one would you choose? We know which one the Chiefs chose. The Super Bowl champion chiefs. 

Remember, too, that there are tight ends just a notch below the superstars who have significant impact, such as Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Goedert, T.J. Hockenson  and Kyle Pitts. The Rams did fairly well with Tyler Higbee. 

The price is right — As mentioned, you pay a lot less for top tight ends than wideouts. For as long as that lasts, that’s a boon for roster building, allowing more spending for other key positions. It’s the MoneyBall strategy. One of the reasons running backs have lower value is their lack of longevity. We’ve seen little evidence of the same problem with tight ends. 

The Packers have been suffering the loss of Jermichael Finley ever since his career-ending injury. This year’s draft offers a unique chance to finally solve the problem. The class is deep, with a couple of potentially elite prospects that the Packers can get with their current draft position. And a few others are a notch below. But this is not a time to get cute, which the Packers sometimes do, and pass up a likely difference-maker on the assumption that they can get someone just slightly less worthy in a later round. And then they find themselves paying to move up for the guy that they like and need to snag before someone else does. But who isn’t as good as the top prospect.

Would I be making this argument if Green Bay had a top 5 pick? Or if a legitimate top 5 talent falls to them at 15?  No, but those are nearly impossible scenarios. Meanwhile, the wideout class is thin, and the Packers have two solid, developing starters. Adding a WR3 at the top of the draft should not be a higher priority than tight end. 

Based on their size/speed and skill sets, the two top TE candidates are Michael Mayer of Penn State and Dalton Kincaid of Utah. Mayer had a weak combine, so Kincaid might be the clear top prospect who fits Green Bay, but regardless, the Packers should grab one of them, because they won’t be around later. And if it were me, I’d either bring back Robert Tonyan (he was still not 100% this past season) or take one of the lesser but decent prospects later in the draft. (Sleeper: Zack Kuntz,  Old Dominion.) Two tight-end sets are highly effective, and you never know when you might strike gold in a later round. It would hardly be the first time the Packers take multiple swings at a position in the same draft. 

This is obviously an easier call if the Packers add a first-round pick via trade. Even if they don’t, tight end should be the pick in round 1. This market inefficiency won’t last forever. 

Continue Reading @ CheeseheadTV 

CheeseheadTV wrote:




Should the Packers draft a TE in the first round?
UserPostedImage
2 years ago

Should the Packers draft a TE in the first round?

Yes…the guy from Notre Dame…he blocks and is a strong receiving threat
Go Packers!!!!
beast
  • beast
  • Select Member Topic Starter
2 years ago

Yes…the guy from Notre Dame…he blocks and is a strong receiving threat

Originally Posted by: Martha Careful 

I've been thinking the TE Washington from Georgia is Gute's dream TE.

TE Lewis sized, but more a hell lot faster (and I'm talking about at their combines so when Lewis was young and had young legs, Lewis ran a 4.84 while Washington ran a 4.64... to try to compare, Lazard ran a 4.56. and Tonyan, then as a heavy WR rana 4.58 before later putting weight on to become a TE).

So Tonyan like speed in Lewis like frame.

Though Washington has absolutely amazing potential, he's not fully developed in any aspect, but Gute seems to love upside potential and puts it on coaches and players to get there.
​​​​​​
 
UserPostedImage
2 years ago

I've been thinking the TE Washington from Georgia is Gute's dream TE.

TE Lewis sized, but more a hell lot faster (and I'm talking about at their combines so when Lewis was young and had young legs, Lewis ran a 4.84 while Washington ran a 4.64... to try to compare, Lazard ran a 4.56. and Tonyan, then as a heavy WR rana 4.58 before later putting weight on to become a TE).

So Tonyan like speed in Lewis like frame.

Though Washington has absolutely amazing potential, he's not fully developed in any aspect, but Gute seems to love upside potential and puts it on coaches and players to get there.​​​​ 

Originally Posted by: beast 

The problem is that sometimes straight-line speed does not translate to getting open.   I will bet there are lots of tight ends faster than Kittle and Kelsy, but they are not shifty i.e. the they don't change directions with ease and have to slowdown.

Having said that, we could alot worse.
Go Packers!!!!
Zero2Cool
2 years ago
Can't remember who it was, but they said (Jordan Schultz, that's who) said TE's are probably gonna be slim on the free agency because he's hearing the draft is deep at TE.
UserPostedImage
Mucky Tundra
2 years ago
I'm not a fan of a TE in round 1 but I'm all for one in round 2 and beyond. I think Gute will double dip at the position with a more polished one early with a project on day 3. I'd imagine that they'll either bring back Tonyan on a reasonable deal or try to get a vet after the draft. 
“Nah. I like having the island. It’s pretty cool...not too many visitors”
UserPostedImage
"I’ve got it." -Aaron Rodgers
Fan Shout
beast (13h) : Yeah, but also some of the wording suggestions Jax only pranked called the QB, not the others... and if he had an open spreadsheet & 3 calls
beast (13h) : Thank goodness he's not leaving the Turtle in the Red Tide
Mucky Tundra (14h) : Cowboys 1st round pick Tyler Booker will indeed be bringing his pet turtle to Dallas with him
Mucky Tundra (14h) : that contained all prospects info and contact
Mucky Tundra (14h) : beast, according the Falcons statement Jax came across it on an ipad. If I had to guess, probably an open spread sheet or something
Zero2Cool (14h) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (14h) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (15h) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
Zero2Cool (15h) : He's not that great, but final piece of the script.\
Zero2Cool (15h) : If we add Isaiah Simmons, book your Super Bowl tickets
Mucky Tundra (15h) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (15h) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (16h) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
Mucky Tundra (16h) : Yeah that one that was a super wounded duck that Sanders supporters are highlighting to prove a point
Zero2Cool (16h) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (17h) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : Was that for the team or the city?
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
buckeyepackfan (26-Apr) : Check
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
TheKanataThrilla (26-Apr) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
beast (26-Apr) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (26-Apr) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (26-Apr) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 4rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes in the 4
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
Martha Careful (25-Apr) : Sorry to bitch, but the headline writers in that section absolutely mislead, or don't know how to read. It is maddening
Martha Careful (25-Apr) : No thanks. Not a dependable guy to be in the right place and run the right route. Dumb as a box of rocks.
Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : Losing 2nd round pick for a one year rental, not ideal. Especially a headcase.
TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : Pickens for Jaire may be interesting. Definitely not sure we want Pickens long term.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : No.Absolutely not
Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : NO NO NO NO NO NO!!1 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
dhazer (25-Apr) : scenario: Our main prospects are off the board when our pick comes around, do we just throw a 2nd round pick at Pittsburgh for Pickens
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