play2win
12 years ago
We lost the past two years mostly as a result of losing two very important players who have yet (pending this year's offseason additions) to be replaced: Nick Collins and Cullen Jenkins.

Two of the top players at their positions on D in the NFL. Equally adept pass rush and run stopping ability on the line, and Pro Bowl Safety range and play. Had we not lost both of these players, I think we would have repeated and won back to back SBs 2010 and 2011.

Our potent offense failed to compensate for our losses on D, compounding the situation with some unsuccessful game plans that forced this tired, undermanned D onto the field time and time again. We were so close, yet undermanned at a couple of important positions made very, very clear in some horrific losses throughout these past two seasons.

Add to this the loss to injury of other KEY players, either highly regarded starters or players acquired to replace key losses, and it is amazing how well we actually fared:

Bulaga
Sherrod
Perry
Bishop
Woodson
Jennings
Worthy
Finley
Neal

Some or all of these players missed significant time due to injury, or had their play/impact adversely affected in trying to come off of injury. Now, we get some of these players returning, and others added at key positions. I'm hopeful we can stay healthy, and turn this around.

Winning Championships is the true mark of success. It is time we won some more, and I think we will.
+1
Porforis
12 years ago

2006 6 Johnny Jolly DT 2009
2006 7 Dave Tollefson DE 2012

2007 6 Korey Hall LB 2011
2007 6 Desmond Bishop LB 2012
2007 6 Mason Crosby K 2012
2007 7 DeShawn Wynn RB 2010
2007 7 Clark Harris TE 2012

2008 7 Matt Flynn QB 2012
2008 7 Brett Swain WR 2011

2009 6 Jarius Wynn DE 2012
2009 6 Brandon Underwood DB 2010
2009 7 Brad Jones LB 2012 0

2010 6 James Starks RB 2012
2010 7 C.J. Wilson DE 2012

2011 6 Caleb Schlauderaff OL 2012
2011 6 D.J. Smith LB 2012
2011 6 Ricky Elmore DL 2012
2011 7 Ryan Taylor TE 2012
2011 7 Lawrence Guy DT 2012

Very few of them stand out. For every Tauscher there are several Caleb Schlauderaff's.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Very different looking story if you don't include the ancient past. Let's look at the last 6 years (not including 2013 or 2012 since a single year in the leauge or zero years in the leauge isn't a great sample size).

How many teams do you see drafting 1-2 starting-quality players in the 6th and 7th round every year? Yes, in many cases we're trading away earlier-round picks for multiple late-round picks, but 2nd and 3rd rounders are hardly guaranteed talent.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
12 years ago

Very different looking story if you don't include the ancient past. Let's look at the last 6 years (not including 2013 or 2012 since a single year in the leauge or zero years in the leauge isn't a great sample size).

How many teams do you see drafting 1-2 starting-quality players in the 6th and 7th round every year? Yes, in many cases we're trading away earlier-round picks for multiple late-round picks, but 2nd and 3rd rounders are hardly guaranteed talent.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



You can't count Bishop, Smith and Jones. They all play the same position. They cut Smith because he can't cut it in their system. Jones was thrust into service due to injuries. Crosby is a kicker for pete sakes. most kickers are UDFA. There is no guarantee of Flynn starting and he did not start for GB so there was no benefit to GB expect as a backup. Wilson started but that was only because they had no other options. I think most people would not have their feels hurt if he were cut this year. There is not going to be any clamor for retiring his number or putting him in the the Packer Hall. (Yes I am being sarcastic and facetious.) That he started is actually a testimony to the need to selecting better quality players and letting the 6th round picks be reserves on the team.

Out of the 19 player only Jolly, Bishop and Starks were true starters and Starks is a question mark at best. 3 out of 19 is 16%. I am sure if you go back and look at the 2nd-4th round picks the number is much higher. Even using your number of 8 that is 42%. The odds of finding a starter in the other rounds is still a whole lot greater.

I have no problem with drafting in the lower rounds but the truth is these players tend to be 2nd and 3rd sting fill in players. Certainly the cream will rise to the top and a few players go on to have solid careers. If you want impact players that can change a game don't look for them in the bottom of the barrel. For the most part they are at the top. You get what you pay for. Teddy likes to bargain shop and he gets a bunch of players that are not ready for prime time players. You won't find Clay Matthews very often in the 7th round.
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+1
Zero2Cool
12 years ago
If the Packers traded their 1st rounder often to gain another 2nd and 3rd or 4th, I'd be okay with that type of deal. Packers recently (since Ted Thompson took over) seem to do really well between rounds 2 and 4.
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Pack93z
12 years ago
Lets look at the NFL as a whole ... and really where players come from. Below.. they look at the "top 20" players from each draft.

After the first round.. I would say it is pretty balanced through the middle of each draft.. almost up to the 6th and 7th round.

So it really is just putting more bullets in the gun after the first round. For reference.. 50% of 2nd rounders are hits.. so if you only have a 50% chance of grabbing an impact player in the second round.. why not increase the odds like he did this year to slide back and add picks later that will in turn increase the impact of your second round pick?

Image source.. 

Second Round #'s Source..  
 NFL Players by Round.JPG You have insufficient rights to see the content.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
Pack93z
12 years ago
More fodder..


But the NFL (which continues its draft today) does seem *particularly* bad predicting future stars. A new football draft study  from the Worcester Polytechnic Institute found there has historically been more value among second-round picks than first-rounders. "The analysis of the past 13 seasons shows that second-rounders provide 70 percent of the production of first-round picks but at just 40 percent of the salary," ESPN reported.

To add some anecdotal color, when you look at today's best football players, their draft positions are utterly random. Look at the best quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was a first overall pick, while Aaron Rodgers was a late first-rounder, Drew Brees was the 32nd pick, and Tom Brady was famously a 6th rounder. Or consider the best running backs. Adrian Peterson was the top-rated in his class, but Arian Foster ranked 24th, and breakout star Alfred Morris wasn't drafted until the 6th round.

TheAtlantic  wrote:

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
wpr
12 years ago

Lets look at the NFL as a whole ... and really where players come from. Below.. they look at the "top 20" players from each draft.

After the first round.. I would say it is pretty balanced through the middle of each draft.. almost up to the 6th and 7th round.

So it really is just putting more bullets in the gun after the first round. For reference.. 50% of 2nd rounders are hits.. so if you only have a 50% chance of grabbing an impact player in the second round.. why not increase the odds like he did this year to slide back and add picks later that will in turn increase the impact of your second round pick?

Image source.. 

Second Round #'s Source..  

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 



your chart proves my point. The 6th and 7th rounds are almost devoid of starters. As you mention I don't mind trading back from a low first round pick to getting a couple of 2nd round picks. But to trade back and get a 2nd round pick and get 3 6/7 round picks is a waste.

I also don't have a problem with rounds 3-5 either. There are more misses than hits but it is still a lot better than 6/7 rounds.
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Pack93z
12 years ago

your chart proves my point. The 6th and 7th rounds are almost devoid of starters. As you mention I don't mind trading back from a low first round pick to getting a couple of 2nd round picks. But to trade back and get a 2nd round pick and get 3 6/7 round picks is a waste.

I also don't have a problem with rounds 3-5 either. There are more misses than hits but it is still a lot better than 6/7 rounds.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



But Ted didn't slide out of the 2nd round.. he just slide down. Grabbing extra picks.. so he got the best value he could from those picks.. he still picked a second round talent and grabbed extra ammo, some of which was used to move up in later rounds.

To me.. this draft this year.. had a ton of value in the middle of it.. there are some drafts that just don't look that way. Hell.. there are some drafts, 2005 comes to mind, in which the entire draft looks weak.

Personally, again, I don't think it is a talent issue up and down this roster.. I believe our philosophies got out of whack at times and it has had more impact than the question of where we acquired talent.

Yearly we see our roster cuts get snapped up elsewhere.. sometimes very quickly. Our scouting department yearly shines in my opinion.. our coaching, or to be more specific, individual coaching aspects is our core weakness which has prevented us from hoisting more than one Lombardi over Rodgers era.

Personally, less talking about becoming a more physical team and more doing MM. Start with busting our offensive line coach in the chops.. wait, maybe the whole line shift was a kick in the ass to Campen. Then MM... look in the freaking mirror and grow a set of running balls. lol.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
+2
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
12 years ago

But Ted didn't slide out of the 2nd round.. he just slide down. Grabbing extra picks.. so he got the best value he could from those picks.. he still picked a second round talent and grabbed extra ammo, some of which was used to move up in later rounds.

To me.. this draft this year.. had a ton of value in the middle of it.. there are some drafts that just don't look that way. Hell.. there are some drafts, 2005 comes to mind, in which the entire draft looks weak.

Personally, again, I don't think it is a talent issue up and down this roster.. I believe our philosophies got out of whack at times and it has had more impact than the question of where we acquired talent.

Yearly we see our roster cuts get snapped up elsewhere.. sometimes very quickly. Our scouting department yearly shines in my opinion.. our coaching, or to be more specific, individual coaching aspects is our core weakness which has prevented us from hoisting more than one Lombardi over Rodgers era.

Personally, less talking about becoming a more physical team and more doing MM. Start with busting our offensive line coach in the chops.. wait, maybe the whole line shift was a kick in the ass to Campen. Then MM... look in the freaking mirror and grow a set of running balls. lol.

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 



I was not speaking specifically about this year's draft. I was talking about Ted's overall draft persona is to move down. He usually ends up with a ton of 6/7 round picks. I am not saying he does a bad job. I am not saying they don't have a good scout system. Heck if you think about it there were "experts" who questioned whether or not CM3 would be a mid round draft pick and why move up to get him. They knew. They could do the same thing other times as well in other years. Either they choose not to or the other teams are asking too much to make it work. We don't know. One more thing. Before someone says I am saying this- They can't move up every single year. Sometimes they can move up and sometimes they can move down. Ted tends to move down a whole lot more than he moves up. He accumulates players who can't make this team and who are picked up elsewhere. Instead of getting 50 players who can't make the team I am saying get 3 who can make a huge difference. (EXAGGERATION PEOPLE)
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warhawk
12 years ago
Unfortunately the math doesn't work when it comes to putting a good team together. No team can afford really good 1st thru 3rd round players to fill out a 53 man roster.
Nor can a GM pull off drafting that many low round picks anyhow. Let's say Ted finds a way to draft 4 players in the first three rounds over 5 years.

That's 20 players and no way they are all going to turn out to be quality core type starters. How could Ted ditch the last few rounds of the draft, load up on the first three or four rounds, pay the best players we have to keep them around, AND, stay under the cap?

I would rather draft and develop young players with potential than bring in 3r or 4th year guys that haven't shown enough potential to stick around with the team they were on. Fifty three players have to come from somewhere.







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