greengold
11 years ago

The percent of first and even 2nd round busts is a fraction of the number of 6th and 7th round picks that fail to make a significant contribution.
So is your argument really sign low round picks because when they fail they won't take up very much cap space?

Originally Posted by: wpr 



That's not what I'm saying at all. All I'm saying is that late round picks aren't as worthless as some make them out to be. And you get extra late round picks by trading back just a few spots in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds.

I'm not even sure what the original point was. I think someone was ragging on Ted Thompson for having so many late round picks. He has gone the opposite way before, traded away late picks to move up a few spots to grab an impact player. Isn't that how they got Clay Matthews III?


texaspackerbacker
11 years ago

It's been a whole 2 seasons since they won the Superbowl. That's not exactly failing. Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way. This is consistently one of the top teams in the league. That's really all you can ask for. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into winning the Superbowl than how many high round picks are on your team.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 



When I read the thread title, this is the first thing that popped into my head also - that and the idea that there are a whole array of reasons for the playoff losses, not the least of which is other teams playing really really good - Kaepernick, etc. I would also suggest injuries have something to do with the way things have gone, although the Super Bowl win was the worst of all in that way.

If Thompson was a little bit more hung up on his tendency to trade down and add 6th and 7th round picks, I'd maybe be upset about it too, but he has occasionally traded up or traded down to other rounds, etc. On a case by case basis, it's hard to argue a pattern of badness. The decision apparently either was triggered by not having an obvious pick on the board at the time or having somebody give him a deal to good to refuse.

The better question maybe would be, is Thompson's percentage of hits v. misses in the 6th and 7th better or worse than the league in general. My gut feeling is better.


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If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
nerdmann
11 years ago

You really think the Packers could match the 49ers regardless of that punt turnover?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



The muffed punt was a backbreaker.

I do not fear the 49ers. Are they for real? I believe so. But so are we.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
nerdmann
11 years ago

It's been a whole 2 seasons since they won the Superbowl. That's not exactly failing. Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way. This is consistently one of the top teams in the league. That's really all you can ask for. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into winning the Superbowl than how many high round picks are on your team.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 



Keep in mind also that we had some key injuries last year. 2013 is an odd numbered year, so with any luck the pattern will hold, and we'll stay relatively healthy.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
OlHoss1884
11 years ago
Ultimately, most draft picks turn out to be "busts" as the average career is 3.5 years. The teams that draft the best will manage 3 or 4 picks per draft which turn into starters/regulars, which the Packers have done consistently for a decade. Compare that to their divisional opponents. Where someone is drafted can create different levels of expectations, but for all rookies it becomes a matter of whether they develop into quality NFL players. Sometimes that's a high round pick like A-Rod, sometimes it's a low round pick like Brady. Since there are a lot of factors (including injuries) that are beyond the team's control or beyond what the scouts can predict, any draft pick is a gamblee, to an extent, but the better teams will consistently make better picks and develop better players from their draft.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits" --Albert Einstein
wpr
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11 years ago

That's not what I'm saying at all. All I'm saying is that late round picks aren't as worthless as some make them out to be. And you get extra late round picks by trading back just a few spots in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds.

I'm not even sure what the original point was. I think someone was ragging on Ted Thompson for having so many late round picks. He has gone the opposite way before, traded away late picks to move up a few spots to grab an impact player. Isn't that how they got Clay Matthews III?


Originally Posted by: greengold 



see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.
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texaspackerbacker
11 years ago

see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



yeah but ......... hahaha.

If you could count on ALWAYS getting a CMIII, your logic flies. But as was said early on in the thread, Ted Thompson figures the percentages lie with quantity. Who are we mere mortals to argue hahaha?
Expressing the Good Normal Views of Good Normal Americans.
If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
wpr
  • wpr
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11 years ago
I did a quick check on Baltimore. The Super Bowl roster was only 37% 6th 7th round picks along with undrafted free agents. They also had 59% of the starting lineup that were 1st (7) or 2nd (6) round picks. GB had 6 firsts and 2 second or 36%. (That included Bulaga) If you add Benson, Sherrod and Perry they would have been 50%.

Someone else can check on SF. Point is the team who won the SB had better quality players across the board on their roster than GB did. Sure it is nice when an UDFA like Williams or Shields works hard and becomes the starting CB. But the Ed Reeds of the world have a better track record of success.
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steveishere
11 years ago

see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



It doesn't work like that though. Ted Thompson isn't sitting there simply going "man I just want more picks even though there's some great players on the board, I'll just trade back anyways" If the players aren't there to get you cannot get them simple as that. Ted Thompson trusts the board and the scouts/evaluators. If the board says there's a bunch of guys of the same quality and no standout players then he's going to trade back and get one of those same quality players and add more chances late in the draft.

He's shown that if there's a significant player to trade up for he WILL do it so you cannot really claim he's avoiding that situation. You don't just trade up to get a player because "higher round picks have a better chance to work out" if your board doesn't say those players are worth it. On top of that each draft is different. Just because one year had a bunch of studs in the 2nd round doesn't mean the next year every 2nd rounder will be a stud ( they may all be a bust).
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
11 years ago

yeah but ......... hahaha.

If you could count on ALWAYS getting a CMIII, your logic flies. But as was said early on in the thread, Ted Thompson figures the percentages lie with quantity. Who are we mere mortals to argue hahaha?

Originally Posted by: texaspackerbacker 



You don't always get CM III. You just get a better chance of finding him in the higher rounds not in the 6th or 7th.
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Zero2Cool (12-Feb) : Keisean Nixon is trying to get Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams lol
Mucky Tundra (11-Feb) : Yeah where did it go?
packerfanoutwest (11-Feb) : or did you resctrict access to that topic?
packerfanoutwest (11-Feb) : why did you remove the Playoff topic?
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Tua’s old DC won a Super Bowl Year 1 with Tua’s former backup
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : *winning MVP
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Funny observation I've heard: Carson Wentz was on the sideline for both Eagles Super Bowl wins w/guys supposed to be his back up winning
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : NFL thought it would get more attention week preceding Super Bowl.
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Yes, the Pro Bowl. It was played Sunday before Super Bowl from 2010-2022
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : pro bowl
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : From 2010 to 2022, it was played on the Sunday before the Super Bowl
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : They moved it to the BYE week before Super Bowl several years ago.
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : it was always after the SB.....
beast (10-Feb) : Though I stop following pro bowl years ago
beast (10-Feb) : I thought the pro game was before the Super Bowl?
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : ok now for the Pro Bowl Game in Hawaii
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : If I was Philly I would try to end it instead of punting it
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : VICTORY! We have (moral) victory!
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Hey they mentioned that we 3-peted
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : seems to me the 49ers should have traded Aiyuk when they had the chance
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : if the Eagles get it down to the 1, do they Tush Push or give it to Barkley?
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : 49ers have a money problem if they want to sign their QB
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Wait for real? Didn't he just get an extension two years ago?
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : 49ers gonna trade Deebo. Interesting
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Replays always never seem to show the holdings
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Great throw by Hurts
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Where Carter falls prey to bad off the field influences (to be clear, not saying he'd clip someone though)
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : Had Carter not gone to Philly were they already had a lot of old college friends, he ends up in a similar spot to Aaron Hernandez
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : I think some of his coaches told scouts to stay away
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : the street racing incident+conditioning and motivation problems
beast (10-Feb) : Then Carter was street racing, where the other car crashed and people died... and other teams were scared to pick Carter for some reason
beast (10-Feb) : I think the Saints traded up, giving their next year 1st to the Eagles, and then they sucked and Eagles got the 10th overall pick
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : wtf Barkley?
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : Getting Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round in 2023 was pretty darn good
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : for some reason i'm thinking of a draft where the Eagles where in the mid 20s and a top player fell all the way to them
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : I think so. I would need to look it up. Think it may have been Carolina's pick.
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : i'm not sure who i'm thinking of now
Mucky Tundra (10-Feb) : oh fuck me i messed that up
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Jordan Davis was 13th overall
Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Carter was 9th overall
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Zero2Cool (10-Feb) : Eagles traded up for Carter, didn't they?
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TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : And we could only wish to have this type of D
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : It's not like Philly has had low draft picks, but has managed to get themselves a top notch pass rush. We spend so much draft capital of D
packerfanoutwest (10-Feb) : another crap halftime show
TheKanataThrilla (10-Feb) : I think it is over, but then I think of Atlanta and want Philly to go in with the same intensity in the second half
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