I think it's incredibly optimistic to assume that other teams will fork over $14 million in cash, not to mention the high draft picks, that would be necessary to wrest a franchise-tagged Matt Flynn away from the Packers. The man has only started two games in his career, and while he performed admirably yesterday (his long passes were impressive), he looked rather noodle armed on the long passes in the Patriot game. He is 1-1 in his starting career. Even Kevin Kolb, as outlandish as the deal made for him was, had started, what, three or four games before he was traded? The main advantage Flynn has over Kolb is that he doesn't have an injury history.
It's possible someone will be desperate enough to roll the dice like that, but I think Ted Thompson has made it obvious over the years he is much more of a poker player than a gambler. In a year in which the Packers need to start sewing up several other key components to this team -- including, conceivably, giving Aaron Rodgers a raise if they win the Super Bowl again -- locking up that much money in the quarterback position would seriously hamstring the Packers' flexibility. Short of having an ironclad, behind-the-scenes guarantee from another team that they will trade for Flynn (in which case, why wouldn't they just wait for free agency?), I don't see Ted Thompson making this move. He has proven himself confident time and time again in the organization's ability to bring up fresh talent through the ranks. Graham Harrell has shown immense improvement from last year, and to me it's obvious the Packers are looking at him as the heir apparent to the backup position.
My guess is that Thompson lets Flynn walk in free agency, contents himself with whatever compensatory picks come his way, and drafts another quarterback somewhere in the middle to late rounds.