NFC

First Round Bye
1) Packers (1) (Better record than anyone)
2) 49'ers (2) (Winning % 5-1 > Saints 5-2)

Division Winners
3) Saints (6) (Winning % 5-2 > Giants 4-2)
4) Giants (4) (Winning % 4-2 > Cowboys 3-3)

Wild Cards
5) Lions (5) (winning % 5-2 > Bears 4-3)
6) Bears (8) (Head to head win over Buccaneers)

The Rest in Order:
7) Buccaneers (3) (Head to head win over Falcons)
8) Falcons (9) (Winning % 4-3 > Cowboys 3-3)
9) Cowboys (10) (Head to head win over Redskins)
10) Redskins (7) (Winning % 3-3 > Seahawks 2-4)
11) Seahawks (11) (Conference % 2-2 > Eagles 2-3)
12) Eagles (12) (Winning % 2-4 > Panthers 2-5)
13) Panthers (15)(Winning % 2-5 > Cardinals 1-5)
14) Cardinals (13) (Winning % 1-5 > vikings 1-6)
15) vikings (14) (Winning % 1-6 > Rams 0-6)
16) Rams (16)


AFC

First Round Bye
1) Patriots (1) (Winning % 5-1 > Steelers 5-2)
2) Steelers (8) (Winning % 5-2 > Chargers 4-2)

Division Winners
3) Chargers (3) (Winning % 4-2 > Texans 4-3)
4) Texans (9)

Wild Cards
5) Bengals (5) (Head to head win over Bills)
6) Bills (6) (Conf % 3-1 > Ravens 3-2)

The rest in order:
7) Ravens (2) (Conf % 3-2 > Raiders 4-3)
8) Raiders (7) (Conf % 4-3 > Jets 3-3)
9) Jets (10) (Winning % 4-3 > Titans 3-3)
10) Titans (4) (SOV .500 > Chiefs .238)
11) Chiefs (12) (Conf % 2-2 > Browns 2-3)
12) Browns (11) (Winning % 3-3 > Broncos 2-4)
13) Broncos (13) (Winning % 2-4 > Jaguars 2-5)
14) Jaguars (14) (Winning % 2-5 > 0-7 Colts)
15) Colts (16) (SOS .605 > Dolphins .579)
16) Dolphins (15)


Notes:
49'ers lost no ground during their bye week.
3 Playoff teams in the NFC North
The Packers will still be the #1 Team next week regardless of results.
The Packers have won 6 of 12 conference games.
49'ers, Lions, Bears and Falcons have won 4.

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It is nice to have a 2 game cushion at this point in the season.

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It's even better to have a 2 game cushion at the end of the season.

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This is true. I would be even better still to have a 5 10 year steak of winning the SB.
I has not trying to say what is the best. Just that as of right now it is great to have a little cushion.

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heh, I kind of had the same thought when reading that response.

1.5. The goal is home field advantage. We should be severely disappointed with anything less.

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I understand the sentiment here, but it doesn't jive with me. We should be severely disappointed if the Pack don't make the playoffs. We should be slightly disappointed if they don't get a 1st round bye. We should be mildly disappointed if they don't get home field throughout the playoffs.

Atlanta had the NFC's best record -- and with it, home field advantage. How'd that play out for them? All that matters is making it to the tournament, like we barely did last year.

At this point the only thing I surmise could keep us out of the playoffs is an injury to Rodgers. But that isn't gonna happen, because he needs to see through his first MVP season.

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Wow, now there is a non sequitur if I ever saw one!😝

At 7-0 the Packers are currently up 2.5 games on the Giants, 2 games on the Lions and Saints, and 1.5 games on the 49ers. They are up 3 games on Bears and Falcons. The Packers only need to go 5-4 the rest of the way to hit 12-4, while the Giants need to go 8-2, the Lions and Saints need to go 7-2, and the 49ers need to go 7-3. I don't see the Giants or the Lions going on that kind of run. The Saints probably have the firepower to do it, but I think it's unlikely that they will sustain their level of early-season success. The only other team I see having a legitimate chance at hitting 12-4 without a whole lot of luck and/or outside help is the 49ers, who still have 5 games to play in the extraordinarily impotent NFC West.

Thus it is likely that 12-4 will secure at a minimum a first-round bye and more likely homefield advantage throughout. Absent a catastrophic late-season collapse, I think the Packers are well positioned to attain either or both milestones.

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Number 1 seeds generally do a little bit better than they did last year. In fact, we're less than two years removed from a Super Bowl that featured two number 1 seeds. 4 Number 1 seeds have made the Super Bowl in the last 5 years.

We're 16-3 at home since the beginning of 2009 and have won 8 straight in Lambeau since we lost in overtime to Miami. I'm not worried about the cold weather either. I've pulled up the stats before and Rodgers passing in outdoor games late in the year were statistically no different than his career averages (until he upped his game this year). He can probably handle the bad weather better than just about anyone. We're also 8-2 in our last 10 games following a bye. Being the number 1 seed would be a boost to our chances of repeating.

I also look at our remaining schedule and who might compete with us for the top seed. 6-3 from here on out should be very attainable. In my opinion that should be the absolute minimum. If that's the case, New Orleans or Tampa Bay have to win out to pass us and Tampa has to go to Green Bay and New Orleans still. If we beat the Giants then either the Cowboys or Redskins would have to win out and beat us on some non-head-to-head tiebreaker. That leaves San Francisco as the only other team with a shot at 13-3 or better, which they might do considering how shit their schedule is and how resilient they've been. All that considered, I'll be disappointed if we don't get home field advantage.

That said, if we finish 10-6 as a wild card and win the Super Bowl, I won't care one lick that we didn't get home field advantage.


...this of course does not take into account how injuries might pan out.

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True, although it is a rare Super Bowl that features both Number 1 seeds. I did the math last year (I'd have to dig up the thread). If I remember correctly, only 13% of Super Bowls have featured two Number 1 seeds. I created that thread to point out that even though they were a Number 6, there was still hope for the Packers, since there was an 87% chance that both Number 1 seeds wouldn't make it past the second weekend.

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