Fortunately, theres a historical precedent for this kind of change. Before the 1994 season, the NFL moved the kickoff from the 35 to the 30-yard line. In 1993, touchbacks accounted for 26.55 percent (536 out of 2,019) of all kicks and only four kickoffs were returned for touchdowns. After the kickoff shifted to the 30 in 1994, touchbacks were reduced to 7.01 percent (146 out of 2,084) of all kicks, and suddenly, 16 kickoffs were returned for touchdowns. So if the past is any indicator, expect a marked decline in the number of returns (nearly 20 percent) and special teams touchdowns.
What is even scarier about the new rules impact on returns is the improvement in kickers over the last 15 years. There were 416 touchbacks this past season, which accounted for 16.38 percent of all kickoffs, over a nine percent increase since 1994. More significantly, the best kicking team (the New York Giants) in 1993 averaged 64.7 yards per kickoff, with 55.7 percent of its kicks ending as touchbacks. This past season, exactly half (16 out of 32) of the entire leagues teams averaged equal to or longer kickoffs than the 1993 Giants. Isnt it rational to assume then, that the leagues average touchbacks will be well over 27 percent, the number set in 1993?