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mi_keys
Senior Member

14 years ago

Ok this is what I see happening, we will beat the Lions and 49ers, lose to the Pats.

Now the last 2 games of the year I think will be a toss up.

Now we get to the Giants game, lets take a look at this without the homer glasses.

1st the game will be played at the end of december and a late game which means it should be very cold. So now the part that scares me is with it being cold the passing games for both teams will be hampered. So we look at the running game and the Giants have a very strong advantage there. I know I know we have Rodgers and he don't need a running game, well the Giants front 4 are very tough to block and can get pressure with just 4. The last point I want to make is this could be a game where the winner has a leg up on the final wildcard spot. With all that being said I think we get a late turnover against Eli and Crosby gets to win one for us at the gun.

Now for the Bears game.

See most of the above about the time of year and weather but this time it will hamper both teams. I have to give the Bears the nod on the running game. I hate to say this but from what I seen yesterday I have to give the Bears the edge on defense also. They also have a huge advantage in the special teams and this is what I see doing us in. I see Hester giving the Bears easy scoring chances just from us trying to keep it away from him.

So I hope we get some help and are able to slip into that final wildcard spot and get the advantage of going to a climate control place so we can make a run to the Big game. I don't see this team as being built for football in Green Bay at the end of the year. Remember the Holmgren years we had 2 good backs that were built for power and not speed. We have Jackson and maybe Starks. Here is how I hope it all plays out. We get the winner of the west (thinking the Rams) and then we get the rematch with the Falcons and then we get the Saints at home.

Just my thoughts

"dhazer" wrote:

This is a good post but I wanted to check the assumption that our passing game will start to struggle now that it is turning cold.

I looked at Rodgers stats in 2008 and 2009 for week 11 and after and only included games in Green Bay or in other cold weather sites (Chicago twice and Pittsburgh). I came up with these stats for 10 games:

Comp: 228
Att: 355
Comp %: 64.2%
Yards: 2,795
TD: 21
Int: 6
Rating: 101.1

Those numbers are marginally better than for his career as a whole. Obviously this is not the only way to look at these games and maybe some of these games weren't that cold (I don't know where kickoff temps are readily available). However, it suggests that it is possible our passing game is unaffected by the cold.

Born and bred a cheesehead

Dulak
Veteran Member

14 years ago

#32

"mi_keys" wrote:

nice work there mi - keys +1

- was just going to add; SF just lost gore - makes our home game all the more easier ...

Not sure but nicks may still be out by the time we play them (their best wideout). NYG

pats at home will be a challenge; bears at our home while tough I still think we take it to them ...

Greg C.
Registered

14 years ago

#33

Very good work, mi_keys. The numbers back up my own observations, and I know that a bunch of other people on this site have been saying the same thing for awhile now: cold weather generally does not have a significant effect on the passing game. Even snow doesn't seem to matter much. Heavy rain and wind are the only things to worry about, really.

I'm glad the game in Chicago is out of the way (although the Packers lost). That's got to be the windiest stadium in the NFL, and I still remember the debacle there in December 2007.

blank

Nonstopdrivel
Preferred Member

14 years ago

#34

I don't understand the notion that a running game is necessary in cold weather. Supposedly hard turf surfaces favor fast running backs and receivers, so why wouldn't hard, frozen natural surfaces do the same, as long as they're well maintained? People probably assume that the frigid temperatures would freeze the quarterbacks' and receivers' hands, reducing the QBs' accuracy and the receivers' ability to hold onto the ball. I'm sure in the old days that was a real factor. Today, however, the players carry hand warmers in their pouches. Plus they're shrouded in huge parkas on the sidelines (which cost hundreds of dollars apiece), and the bench areas are kept warm with kerosene blast heaters.

In the modern-day NFL, it's rare that a drive lasts more than five to ten minutes anyway, so overall the players are kept pretty warm and limber.

zombieslayer
Registered

14 years ago

#35

"mi_keys" wrote:

+1 Keys.

Well, for those who think Rodgers can't throw in the cold, this blows that theory all to hell. :thumbright: :pottytrain2:

My man Donald Driver

(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷

Greg C.
Registered

14 years ago

#36

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

Great points. Those are good examples of how the game changes and conventional wisdom becomes outdated.

I have my own undeveloped theory about how playing on the road is not as much of a disadvantage as it used to be, because teams have figured out how to combat the usual pitfalls of road games, both in terms of preparation and the game itself. One of these days I need to try finding info to prove that teams actually do win more often on the road than they used to. If that's not the case, my theory is dead. I'm sure that home field advantage still exists--I just don't think it's as much of a factor as it used to be.

I also don't think that playing on the road in domes is as difficult as it used to be. As time has gone by, teams have adapted, and with domes becoming more common, they've gained more experience. I remember how weird and awful it was for the Packers to play in the Metrodome when they first built that thing. Now it's just another road game, and if the Packers have the better team, they usually win.

blank

Pack93z
Select Member

14 years ago

#37

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:

Technology has changed the game.. and this is one area that has really been effected.

Just as there is a significant different between the speed of the game on turf verse grass, there is a different between grass and frozen grass. But that has changed, at least in Green Bay with the heaters applied under the turf.. getting the sod itself from becoming a solid mass allows similar cuts and movements throughout the season.

Some will ask.. is there really that big of a difference, I can tell you it changes the crispness of breaks, routes that affect the overall timing of the passing offense.

Keeping the footing as consistent as possible throughout the season diminishes the effects that weather has on the offense.

I think the running games importance doesn't increase today as the weather changes, it is just as important in September as it is in December.. just the stakes of the season seem to increase as the season wears on.

Teams learn your tendencies, and adjust their gameplans to take away or limit the damage done by your strengths, and will do their best to place more of an importance on your weaknesses.

In conclusion, it isn't the weather as much as it is other teams have seen more footage of your offense, and are better prepared to take away your bread and butter.

It is no secret we are a pass first team, so if we can't run the ball effectively it becomes more exposed as the season wears on.

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

zombieslayer
Registered

14 years ago

#38

It is no secret we are a pass first team, so if we can't run the ball effectively it becomes more exposed as the season wears on.

"pack93z" wrote:

Does it really? Or have we reached the point where everyone knows we're going to pass but nobody can stop us?

Let's take a look at the Falcons. Arguably the best team in the NFC. Let's just look at the one game we played them.

They knew we can't run. They knew we'd pass. Well, when we passed, we got success. Behold.

Our first drive. We ran. Bad idea. Punt.

Green Bay - 9:22
1st-10, GB11 9:22 A. Rodgers rushed to the right for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, GB17 8:45 B. Jackson rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
3rd-3, GB18 8:04 A. Rodgers rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
4th-1, GB20 7:16 T. Masthay punt, no return. Green Bay committed 5 yard penalty

Drive 2 - too much rushing. Arguably, had we thrown in more passes, this would have been a TD drive instead of a FG drive.

Green Bay - 4:56
1st-10, GB15 4:56 A. Rodgers passed to G. Jennings to the left for 30 yard gain
1st-10, GB45 4:16 B. Jackson rushed to the left for 1 yard loss. Atlanta committed 15 yard penalty
1st-10, ATL41 3:51 A. Rodgers passed to D. Driver to the right for 17 yard gain
1st-10, ATL24 3:23 B. Jackson rushed to the left for no gain
2nd-10, ATL24 2:48 A. Rodgers rushed to the right for 11 yard gain
1st-10, ATL13 2:14 B. Jackson rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, ATL9 1:33 A. Rodgers rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
3rd-1, ATL4 0:51 D. Nance rushed to the left for no gain
4th-1, ATL4 0:04 M. Crosby kicked a 22-yard field goal

Now this should have been a TD drive. It ended with a fumble into the end zone. Bad luck. Notice though that every single play was a pass play except for Aaron's sneaks.

Green Bay - 13:08
1st-10, GB15 13:08 A. Rodgers passed to B. Swain to the right for 31 yard gain. Atlanta committed 15 yard penalty
1st-10, ATL39 12:44 A. Rodgers passed to J. Nelson down the middle for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, ATL33 12:06 A. Rodgers incomplete pass down the middle
3rd-4, ATL33 11:58 A. Rodgers passed to J. Jones to the right for 9 yard gain
1st-10, ATL24 11:15 A. Rodgers passed to J. Jones to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, ATL19 10:37 A. Rodgers passed to J. Nelson down the middle for 5 yard gain
1st-10, ATL14 9:42 A. Rodgers passed to J. Jones to the right for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, ATL6 8:55 A. Rodgers passed to J. Jones to the right for 4 yard gain
1st-2, ATL2 8:18 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the left
2nd-2, ATL2 8:15 A. Rodgers rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
3rd-1, ATL1 7:32 A. Rodgers rushed to the left for no gain. A. Rodgers fumbled. M. Peterson recovered fumble

What are we doing wasting a valuable drive with a run? Geez, people. Punt.

Green Bay - 14:49
1st-10, GB32 14:49 A. Rodgers passed to B. Swain to the left for 9 yard gain
2nd-1, GB41 14:21 B. Jackson rushed to the right for 6 yard loss
3rd-7, GB35 13:36 A. Rodgers passed to A. Quarless to the left for 5 yard gain
4th-2, GB40 13:01 T. Masthay punt, no return

Nice 80 yard drive here. Wasted one play with a run though.

Green Bay - 10:05
1st-10, GB20 10:05 A. Rodgers passed to D. Driver to the left for 9 yard gain
2nd-1, GB29 9:26 B. Jackson rushed to the right for 1 yard loss
3rd-2, GB28 8:38 A. Rodgers passed to G. Jennings to the right for 34 yard gain. G. Jennings fumbled. K. Hall recovered fumble
1st-10, ATL38 8:28 A. Rodgers rushed up the middle for 9 yard gain
2nd-1, ATL29 7:44 A. Rodgers incomplete pass down the middle
3rd-1, ATL29 7:37 A. Rodgers passed to J. Nelson to the left for 28 yard gain
1st-1, ATL1 7:17 A. Rodgers rushed up the middle for 1 yard touchdown. M. Crosby made PAT

This was the only drive in the game where my argument isn't 100% correct. The running worked, the passing failed when it mattered. Kudos to Mike McCarthy for going for it on 4th down though. I like that.

Green Bay - 14:13
1st-10, GB7 14:13 A. Rodgers passed to J. Nelson to the left for 12 yard gain
1st-10, GB19 13:27 A. Rodgers rushed to the right for 10 yard gain
1st-10, GB29 12:43 A. Rodgers rushed up the middle for no gain
2nd-10, GB29 12:02 A. Rodgers passed to J. Kuhn to the left for 9 yard gain
3rd-1, GB38 11:18 B. Jackson rushed to the right for 12 yard gain
1st-10, 50 10:32 B. Jackson rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, ATL46 9:54 A. Rodgers passed to G. Jennings to the right for 5 yard gain
3rd-1, ATL41 9:20 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the right
4th-1, ATL41 9:15 A. Rodgers incomplete pass down the middle

14 passing plays, 2 rushing plays. That's the kind of balance I want to see. Result - TD. Of course.

Green Bay - 5:54
1st-10, GB10 5:54 B. Jackson rushed to the left for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, GB15 5:30 A. Rodgers passed to A. Quarless to the left for 11 yard gain
1st-10, GB26 5:07 A. Rodgers passed to B. Jackson to the left for no gain
2nd-10, GB26 4:31 Green Bay committed 5 yard penalty
2nd-15, GB21 4:26 A. Rodgers passed to A. Quarless down the middle for 19 yard gain
1st-10, GB40 3:45 B. Jackson rushed to the left for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, GB48 3:17 A. Rodgers rushed to the right for 7 yard gain
1st-10, ATL45 3:13 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the right
2nd-10, ATL45 3:08 A. Rodgers passed to G. Jennings to the right for 15 yard gain
1st-10, ATL30 2:45 A. Rodgers passed to B. Jackson down the middle for 9 yard gain
2nd-1, ATL21 2:14 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the left
3rd-1, ATL21 2:11 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the left
4th-1, ATL21 2:03 A. Rodgers passed to J. Jones down the middle for 18 yard gain
1st-3, ATL3 1:54 A. Rodgers sacked by J. Abraham. A. Rodgers fumbled. A. Rodgers recovered fumble
2nd-6, ATL6 1:52 A. Rodgers incomplete pass to the right
3rd-6, ATL6 1:45 A. Rodgers passed to B. Jackson to the right for 1 yard gain
4th-5, ATL5 1:06 Green Bay committed 5 yard penalty
4th-10, ATL10 0:56 A. Rodgers passed to J. Nelson to the left for 10 yard touchdown. M. Crosby made PAT

So let me reiterate, I'm talking ONLY this game. When we rushed, it was generally a waste of a down. When we went all out pass, it resulted in a TD drive except for that Rodgers' fumble which was just an unfortunate occurrence.

Have we as a team reached the point where EVERYONE knows we're going to pass but there's not a ****** thing they can do to stop it? This was even against the arguably best team in the NFC with the #7 D in the NFL.

My man Donald Driver

(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷

Pack93z
Select Member

14 years ago

#39

Yep.. we moved the ball all game long. And we hung a L for our trouble.

Now.. if we could effectively run the ball.. toward the end, instead of incomplete pass after incomplete pass stopping the clock.. we could have placed a run or two in there, milked the clock a bit more and finished the game without giving them an opportunity or a limited one at best.

Remember, we are sitting on their on their 21 with over 2 minutes to go.. a run or two puts the clock near the 0 mark.

But that is right.. we don't need to run the ball in situations.. we can just move it via the pass with no time expiring.

Clock management is over rated I guess.

Situational football.. we can't run and it takes elements out of our disposal.

BTW... +1 for your breakdown.. even if I disagree that we need to be able to run the ball effectively to maximize our options in games, games where we don't get another opportunity to correct it for next week.

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

dfosterf
Veteran Member

14 years ago

#40

That last pass by Rodgers was pretty.

He obviously had all month back there (watching the linemen on both sides was kinda funny)

Still,

You couldn't have shot that pass out of a cannon any better.

I think we make it this year. I just know it will boil down to that last Bears game- heck- we all know that, deep down.

All these injuries are going make us all optimistic for next year also, perhaps moreso than just about anyone.

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