Aaron Rodgers might land a spot among the elite in the NFL record books Sunday at Atlanta.
In his third season as a starter, Rodgers is only 30 pass attempts shy of the 1,500 minimum to qualify for the NFLs list of career leaders for passer rating. When he qualifies, whether thats this week or next, chances are hell rank No. 2 on the all-time list, behind only San Diegos Philip Rivers and immediately ahead of Steve Young, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning.
Its pretty cool to be mentioned with those guys there, because theyre real talented quarterbacks, Rodgers said when shown the list of the top five. Hall of Famer (i.e., Young), future Hall of Famer (Manning), potential future Hall of Famers (Rivers, Romo and Rodgers). Whats not on that list is, no Super Bowls (Rivers), no Super Bowls (Rodgers), one Super Bowl (Young), no Super Bowls (Romo), one Super Bowl (Manning). Guys get remembered more for winning Super Bowls than for passer ratings.
Passer rating, which is a formula based on four statistics (yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdown percentage and interception percentage), has become one of the two most-used standards for measuring NFL quarterbacks, along with wins and losses. But its hardly the be all and end all.
In the mid-1970s, the NFL began changing rules to favor the passing game, and it hasnt stopped. This has made for an increasingly pass-oriented league, and passer ratings that continually rise with those changes. When defensive backs could drill receivers all over the field and offensive linemen couldnt use their hands, it was a lot harder to complete passes and avoid interceptions.
Thus, there are Pro Football Hall of Famers who rank surprisingly far down the list, and middling quarterbacks of more recent vintage who rank high.
For instance, Houstons Matt Schaub (91.4 points) is No. 11 in all-time passer rating, Miamis Chad Pennington (90.1 points) is No. 12 and Daunte Culpepper (87.8 points) is No. 13. Its hard to think any of them would crack the list of even the all-time top 100 quarterbacks.
On the other side, Dan Marino (86.4 points) ranks only No. 19, Troy Aikman (81.6 points) is tied at No. 42, Dan Fouts (80.2 points) is No. 57, John Elway (79.9 points) is No. 59 and Johnny Unitas (78.2 points) is tied for No. 69. Theyre all in the Hall of Fame, and at least three (Elway, Unitas and Marino) probably rank among the top 10 quarterbacks ever. Yet all but Marino rank behind Jacksonvilles mediocre David Garrard (No. 20 at 86.2 points) in passer rating.
Its a decent barometer, Rodgers said. Take the components of it: its efficiency, yards per attempt; its efficiency in touchdowns per attempts; its taking care of the football, interception percentage; completion percentage. I think its a good barometer of the type of quarterback you are. It doesnt measure a big run you might have had or a throwaway. But its a decent enough barometer.
Rodgers was one of five quarterbacks who finished last season with a passer rating of at least 100 points he was No. 4 at 103.2 points but will have to play near his level of the last couple of weeks over the final six games to hit the 100-point mark this year.
In the Packers first seven games, he threw nine interceptions, which is two more than his total for 2009. In the last three games, hes thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. In the last two, wins over the New York Jets and Minnesota, his passer ratings were 131.5 points and 141.3 points, which is getting toward the maximum rating of 158.3 and suggests he could be on his way to a strong run in the second half. Thats pushed his season rating to 95.7, No. 8 in the league.
I think hes just being more exact with his decision-making, coach Mike McCarthy said of Rodgers recent play. His ball accuracy has been pretty consistent all year. I think sometimes you can play a little too fast. Sometimes you can be a little too smart. We had some of the turnovers there in the beginning of the year, particularly on third down. Thats not what you want.
But I think hes really in a groove right now. Hes playing with a lot of rhythm. Hes making plays with his feet. Hes playing the way that he expects to play and the way we expect him to play.
Rodgers looks like a quarterback who consistently will have a passer rating at least in the 90s because he combines accurate throwing (63.9 percent in his career) with relatively low-risk decision making, which will keep his interception totals down. So, even if he stays healthy enough to have a long career, its realistic to think he can finish with one of the highest ratings in league history.
But other more intangible qualities also will determine how much he accomplishes. Rodgers said hes learned that skills such as leadership are as much learned as innate, which offensive coordinator Joe Philbin drove home when he pulled him aside early in his career as a starter and told him his body language sometimes revealed frustration and made it look like he was blaming mistakes on teammates.
Being a quarterback, youre being watched not only by the TV audience and the fans, he said, but by your teammates, whose opinions really, really matter, and who are looking to you for leadership and for energy and for enthusiasm and how your demeanor is. Thats something you have to think about on a daily basis.