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Zero2Cool
2020-07-15T15:48:53Z
I was kind of curious because I see numbers thrown around all over the place. What is happening statistically in my home State of Wisconsin?

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Over 700,000 of the nearly six million Wisconsin residents have been tested for COVID-19. Nearly 40,000 tested positive and of those testing positive we have lost 826.
Over 12% of Wisconsin has been tested.
Over 5% of the tested have tested positive.
Over 2% of those who have tested positive have died.

COVID-19 deaths per Wisconsin person is 0.0142%.

Source: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm 

I dunno ... but it is beginning to feel like we might be over reacting. Easy for me to say because I haven't had anyone directly infected, right?



And for the USA.
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Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coro...dates/testing-in-us.html 
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gbguy20
2020-07-15T16:28:13Z
Deaths per person is a worthless statistic. Deaths per positive test is relevant. 2% death rate if you get it. What's the death rate if you get the flu?
Zero2Cool
2020-07-15T16:48:22Z
Originally Posted by: gbguy20 

Deaths per person is a worthless statistic.


Do you prefer deaths per car-wash?

Originally Posted by: gbguy20 

Deaths per positive test is relevant.


And that was mentioned.

Originally Posted by: gbguy20 

2% death rate if you get it.


That feels like a low percentage. One of the troubles I have is the numbers I find do not say COVID-19 is the cause of death, rather that they are COVID-19 related deaths. This might be arguing semantics, but I've read where someone could die in a car crash and test positive for COVID-19 and it counts as a COVID-19 death. 🤷‍♂️

Originally Posted by: gbguy20 

What's the death rate if you get the flu?


That's a good question and one that I'm sure once produced would come with questions about "is that verified Flu" and what strain of Flu, etc. I'm not sure there's an ending to that statistic.

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Cheesey
2020-07-15T18:36:42Z
If a person has an underlying health issue. That might cause them to die if they get covid.
That of course happens all the time with other diseases. A weakened body plays into the death rate with covid as well.
How many of the deaths in the US have had underlying health issues that were a strong cause of their deaths? Yet it’s listed as a covid death.
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KRK
  • KRK
  • Veteran Member
2020-07-15T20:25:10Z
Over-reaction, perhaps. Responsible behavior, yes. Generally, Wisconsinites have a good team approach, are fairly sensible, wash their hands, and don't stand 6 inches away from each other when speaking.

The over-reaction is in many states who are not sending kids back to schools. They are not following the science...regrettably, there are other motivations.

Incidentally, Zero
Quote:

Do you prefer deaths per car-wash?

With about 400 car-washes in Wisconsin, the death rate per wash is 2.06. Perhaps a moratorium on new car-washes would stop the spread😎!!!
In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
Zero2Cool
2020-07-15T20:34:31Z
Originally Posted by: KRK 

Over-reaction, perhaps. Responsible behavior, yes. Generally, Wisconsinites have a good team approach, are fairly sensible, wash their hands, and don't stand 6 inches away from each other when speaking.

The over-reaction is in many states who are not sending kids back to schools. They are not following the science...regrettably, there are other motivations.



In my experience -- if people in Wisconsin stood six inches from one another -- they would go deaf! Some loud asses over here!!

I read that Wal-Mart is requiring masks starting July 20th. I already didn't get out much and the only places I've been to in months have been AutoZone and Wal-Mart. I will now have one less place to go. More online shopping for this dude!!

I'm not against wearing a mask, per se. However, if it is not safe enough to be out an bout without a mask, then it's not safe enough to be out an bout. I don't subscribe to the smoking area on an airplane or pee section in a swimming pool. They don't want me out of my house ... so be it! I got two good hands!!
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Cheesey
2020-07-15T22:36:37Z
Is it safe to be out without a mask?
It might be. I wear one when I go in any store.
With my asthma, heart disease, diabetes and other things, I wear it for safety. I want to be here for my wife.

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gbguy20
2020-07-16T03:15:25Z
Thanks for the car wash statistics.
Zero2Cool
2020-07-16T12:38:13Z
Originally Posted by: KRK 

Incidentally, Zero With about 400 car-washes in Wisconsin, the death rate per wash is 2.06. Perhaps a moratorium on new car-washes would stop the spread😎!!!



Unfortunately, your numbers cannot be substantiated. Bummer! Boring tidbit -- I worked for PDQ Manufacturing years ago. They take breaks and quitting time to a who knew level! You could literally hear tools hitting the tables when it was break time or time to go home. It was eerie as shit the first few weeks until I got to use to it.

Anyhow, I don't think this hysteria is going to end any time soon. Too many people have over-reacted to it. That's not to say it's not an issue -- it is. But, the over-reacting I'm speaking to is going into stores and agitating people who are not wearing a mask or who are not social distancing and when you got them on the brink of blowing a gasket -- pull out your phone, record them and post it online for everyone to ridicule. Of course we have people insulting those who are not wearing a mask. That's helpful. That's how you get people to see your point of view. That's how you get people to wear a mask. Call them names. Insult them. Yep, brilliant over reaction.

Even when a vaccine comes out, who's going to jump in line for that? An unproven vaccine with unknown side effects to prevent a virus that kills such a small percentage of those infected? They should release the numbers of those who survived but have a long-term issue because of COVID. The death numbers are not enough to scare people.
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-16T12:40:05Z
Originally Posted by: Cheesey 

Is it safe to be out without a mask?
It might be. I wear one when I go in any store.
With my asthma, heart disease, diabetes and other things, I wear it for safety. I want to be here for my wife.



I don't have one, yet. I don't need to be around people so I choose not to be. If they open theaters and say you gotta wear a mask, I'd wear one. It'd be fun to see how I'd eat popcorn!
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Cheesey
2020-07-16T16:11:07Z
Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

I don't have one, yet. I don't need to be around people so I choose not to be. If they open theaters and say you gotta wear a mask, I'd wear one. It'd be fun to see how I'd eat popcorn!



Even before I got to the end of your post, I was wondering “how would you eat popcorn?” 😂
The soda, not such a big deal.....just make a small hole in the mask to slip the straw through!🤪
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-16T18:09:38Z
They need to just freaking cancel the season already. 72 is over one entire football team, plus practice squad. We don't need football this season.

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Cheesey
2020-07-16T19:01:48Z
Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

They need to just freaking cancel the season already. 72 is over one entire football team, plus practice squad. We don't need football this season.



They probably will. It’s going to be a long winter without the Packers to watch.
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-26T01:28:28Z
You'll notice Wisconsin is "tests" and USA is "cases".

A "case" can have multiple "tests". Example ... Brett can get tested five times. Four tests being negative and one test being positive. Brett's tests would count as five tests, four being negative and one test being positive.

Since the last time I grabbed the numbers, Wisconsin has had 9,964 positive tests and 65 deaths in just 11 days.

 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.

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Cheesey
2020-07-26T03:06:46Z
Bledsoe, player for the Milwaukee Bucks tested positive. He said he never felt ill, wouldn’t have known he even had it if he hadn’t been tested.
It makes me wonder how many people all ready had it and didn’t even know it.
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earthquake
2020-07-26T06:32:47Z
Over-reacting? It will be hard to say for certain until all of this over. Thus far, you would have a difficult time arguing that we have, as a nation, done anything but underreact. No matter how you want to break down the statistics, our country has handled this situation poorly. We've had more deaths than any other nation, and we're in the top 10 worldwide for most cases  and deaths  per capita.

Wisconsin's infection and death rates are relatively low when compared to the rest of the nation, but still high when compared to the much of the world. Cases in WI are on a sharp incline, and death rates tend to lag behind by a couple of weeks, so we should expect to see death rates go up for WI in the short term. Not to mention a (potentially substantial) new wave if/when in-person school resumes this fall.

Taking a step back, we're at 150K dead nationwide, and that's not counting the numerous cases that went untested before the person died. For context, the '18-19 flu season killed about 34K. We're at 150K after 4 months. With some very dumb math (I'm sure there are better projection models but I'm too lazy to look right now), that projects out to 450K for a ~1 year span, or 13 times as deadly as the flu. For context, that would be more deaths than all US soldiers in both theaters throughout the entire duration of World War II. That's assuming we don't get it under control of course, which looks increasingly unlikely with the reckless, nonchalant attitude many in our society have towards the Pandemic. That's also assuming that rates stay flat and that, for instance, they don't increase meaningfully as schools open up.

Additionally, cases and deaths only tell part of the story. Many survivors are having serious health complications well after they have "recovered" from the virus, and at this point, we have no idea how long we can expect those to last or if they will be treatable or cause lasting damage. Support groups are starting to pop up for all of the weird medical issues that those who have had Covid-19 are starting to develop. This is some terrible shit. Catching it and recovering doesn't guarantee immunity either, with some people reportedly getting it again after recovery. As cases and deaths rise again in what appears to be a second wave, heard immunity seems like a fairly distant fantasy.

So yes, if you're going out, and especially if you're going to be somewhere inside and/or close to other people, please wear a mask. Masks, even simple cloth ones, are effective at limiting the spread, and that effectiveness compounds as more people wear them. Of course, if you can stay home and order what you need online, all the better.

Also yes, there are many asymptomatic carriers. Some data suggests that nearly half of people who test positive are asymptomatic. Even if we don't feel sick, the only reasonable assumption we can make is that we already have the virus.
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-26T13:39:28Z
Originally Posted by: earthquake 

Over-reacting? It will be hard to say for certain until all of this over. Thus far, you would have a difficult time arguing that we have, as a nation, done anything but underreact. No matter how you want to break down the statistics, our country has handled this situation poorly. We've had more deaths than any other nation, and we're in the top 10 worldwide for most cases  and deaths  per capita.

Wisconsin's infection and death rates are relatively low when compared to the rest of the nation, but still high when compared to the much of the world. Cases in WI are on a sharp incline, and death rates tend to lag behind by a couple of weeks, so we should expect to see death rates go up for WI in the short term. Not to mention a (potentially substantial) new wave if/when in-person school resumes this fall.

Taking a step back, we're at 150K dead nationwide, and that's not counting the numerous cases that went untested before the person died. For context, the '18-19 flu season killed about 34K. We're at 150K after 4 months. With some very dumb math (I'm sure there are better projection models but I'm too lazy to look right now), that projects out to 450K for a ~1 year span, or 13 times as deadly as the flu. For context, that would be more deaths than all US soldiers in both theaters throughout the entire duration of World War II. That's assuming we don't get it under control of course, which looks increasingly unlikely with the reckless, nonchalant attitude many in our society have towards the Pandemic. That's also assuming that rates stay flat and that, for instance, they don't increase meaningfully as schools open up.

Additionally, cases and deaths only tell part of the story. Many survivors are having serious health complications well after they have "recovered" from the virus, and at this point, we have no idea how long we can expect those to last or if they will be treatable or cause lasting damage. Support groups are starting to pop up for all of the weird medical issues that those who have had Covid-19 are starting to develop. This is some terrible shit. Catching it and recovering doesn't guarantee immunity either, with some people reportedly getting it again after recovery. As cases and deaths rise again in what appears to be a second wave, heard immunity seems like a fairly distant fantasy.

So yes, if you're going out, and especially if you're going to be somewhere inside and/or close to other people, please wear a mask. Masks, even simple cloth ones, are effective at limiting the spread, and that effectiveness compounds as more people wear them. Of course, if you can stay home and order what you need online, all the better.

Also yes, there are many asymptomatic carriers. Some data suggests that nearly half of people who test positive are asymptomatic. Even if we don't feel sick, the only reasonable assumption we can make is that we already have the virus.



I can sit here and feel we are over-reacting and still understand the fact that we would only know if we over-reacted or under-reacted if didn't react at all. There's no possible way to factual say we over-reacted, thus, those who prefer to be correct will lean towards we have under-reacted. We can see the numbers and while they are not accurate and exaggerated, they still show it's not nearly as tragic as the loud moral high horse crowd is stating. I believe it is not as bad due to how we reacted in March and April. I think we did the right thing with social distancing, having people work from home, closing down some places, etc ... but once things started to flatten people demanded their "freedom" and now look where we are.

I struggle to trust communist and social Country provided statistics, especially comparing them to that of the US. In the US we have places reporting COVID-19 related deaths who died of car crash or other things simply because they were tested and then posthumously testing positive with COVID-19. These tests are skewing the numbers.

I cannot argue we (the US) have under reacted compared to other Countries because no one (that I've found) has made a valid case for that statement. Especially when the source linked above shows over half-dozen Countries reporting a higher death per million than the US. Even that website says the death figures are changed during the course of the pandemic.

The difficulties of death figures -- from the source linked


My personal take is the squeaky wheels who need some high-horse moral pedestal need to stop forcing masks on people. Educate people. Inform people. Let people see the benefits to wearing a mask without berating them, without ridiculing them. Let people know that wearing a mask does not protect you, social distancing protects you. If you must go into public because of something NEEDED, slap that mask up on your face, keep that social distancing and act like you're at grandma's place ... don't touch anything you don't need to!

Thanks for the thought-out reply earthquake!

Edit, I wanted to also mention the deaths are not the whole story. I've said this before, I'll say it again. We don't know the long-term consequences of having this virus. We could have less lung capacity (just an example, not fact) or who knows. So yeah we could avoid contributing to the overall death count, but doesn't mean we're not suffering. Speaking of death count, I couldn't help notice you killed SIX THOUSAND people!

Originally Posted by: earthquake 

Taking a step back, we're at 150K dead nationwide,


Even though your link states 144,103 COVID-19 related deaths, you rounded up to lean people towards your point. This is one of the several problems I have with statistics. People will not be honest. They exaggerate them to fit their belief. Good people with good intentions doing things dishonestly.
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earthquake
2020-07-26T16:16:35Z
Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

I can sit here and feel we are over-reacting and still understand the fact that we would only know if we over-reacted or under-reacted if didn't react at all. There's no possible way to factual say we over-reacted, thus, those who prefer to be correct will lean towards we have under-reacted. We can see the numbers and while they are not accurate and exaggerated, they still show it's not nearly as tragic as the loud moral high horse crowd is stating. I believe it is not as bad due to how we reacted in March and April. I think we did the right thing with social distancing, having people work from home, closing down some places, etc ... but once things started to flatten people demanded their "freedom" and now look where we are.

I struggle to trust communist and social Country provided statistics, especially comparing them to that of the US. In the US we have places reporting COVID-19 related deaths who died of car crash or other things simply because they were tested and then posthumously testing positive with COVID-19. These tests are skewing the numbers.



The data is far from perfect, and I've no doubt that some countries (China and likely Russia) are under-reporting, while others lack the resources to test and report accurately. That said, the data is all we have at this point, so I'll base any discussion we have around it. Hopefully, the data and methods to compare across countries will improve in time.

Quote:


I cannot argue we (the US) have under reacted compared to other Countries because no one (that I've found) has made a valid case for that statement. Especially when the source linked above shows over half-dozen Countries reporting a higher death per million than the US. Even that website says the death figures are changed during the course of the pandemic.



There are 195 nations in the world. If the best we can do is point to is a handful of countries that have handled this worse than US, it doesn't look great. The USA is the richest and most powerful nation in the world, with perhaps the most advanced collection of medical research facilities on the planet. We should be leading the way, not bringing up the rear.

In any case, we have examples of countries that have handled it very well. Korea, Japan, Singapore and other nations that have public health care systems and built-up effective pandemic containment programs post SARS are notable. They took it seriously from day one, instituted social distancing, and wear masks en masse - many countries where masks are not stigmatized have been able to control the spread of infection better than us.

Death rates (per million):
USA: 440
Wisconsin: 155
Japan: 8
Korea: 6
Singapore: 5

Surely statistical oddities like incorrectly attributed deaths and variance in reporting methodology wouldn't account for differences in the range of many orders of magnitude? Let's say these countries are under-reporting by a factor of 10 (unrealistic), we would still be performing terribly in comparison.

Quote:


The difficulties of death figures -- from the source linked



My personal take is the squeaky wheels who need some high-horse moral pedestal need to stop forcing masks on people. Educate people. Inform people. Let people see the benefits to wearing a mask without berating them, without ridiculing them. Let people know that wearing a mask does not protect you, social distancing protects you. If you must go into public because of something NEEDED, slap that mask up on your face, keep that social distancing and act like you're at grandma's place ... don't touch anything you don't need to!

Thanks for the thought-out reply earthquake!



No problem, it's a complex topic and one that deserves nuanced discussion.

At the end of the day, people need to understand that masks are effective (especially when paired with other common-sense measures like social distancing and proper hygiene). Of course, masks are not 100% effective (or even remotely close to it), and the effectiveness varies depending on the type of mask and whether one wears it correctly. Masks won't stop Covid-19 in its tracks, but wearing them is a very easy way to limit the spread.

Even with relatively limited individual effectiveness, the compound effect of mask use is thought to be significant. More info on that line of thinking, and on the general concept of the exponential nature of the spread here: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/23/894425483/can-masks-save-us-from-more-lockdowns-heres-what-the-science-says 

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/20/893227088/growing-body-of-evidence-suggests-masks-protect-those-wearing-them-too  - This article is very interesting, and suggests that the fewer viral particles you inhale, the less likely you are to get seriously ill or show symptoms at all. If this is accurate it would seem to help explain why Asian countries like Korea and Japan, where widespread mask usage is much more prevalent, are seeing astronomically lower infection and death rates than the US.

Recent research seems to suggest that masks provide protection to the wearer: https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/06/masks-may-protect-the-wearer-from-the-coronavirus-more-than-originally-thought-new-research-suggests.html  - direct source to research: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext 

Our best hospitals and medical universities tend to agree on the general effectiveness of masks:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449 
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know 
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/06/stanford-scientists-contribute-to-who-mask-guidelines.html 
etc
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-27T13:37:06Z
Originally Posted by: earthquake 

Our best hospitals and medical universities tend to agree on the general effectiveness of masks:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449 
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know 
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/06/stanford-scientists-contribute-to-who-mask-guidelines.html 
etc



That first link doesn't really ring a solid endorsement of wearing a mask.

Quote:

Surgical Masks
At this time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has not approved any type of surgical mask specifically for protection against the coronavirus, but these masks may provide some protection when N95 masks are not available.

N95 Masks
Some N95 masks, and even some cloth masks, have one-way valves that make them easier to breathe through. But because the valve releases unfiltered air when the wearer breathes out, this type of mask doesn't prevent the wearer from spreading the virus. For this reason, some places have banned them.



I dunno. If this virus is so bad we're going to be violated and mandated to wear a mask ... we shouldn't be going out an about unless it is absolutely necessary. Either thing is serious, or it is not serious. We need to stop trying to have it both ways.

BTW, I bought a mask and wore it today while walking three miles. I'm astonished they are going to expect children to wear them for 8 hours while sitting in a non air conditioned school. I am not at all happy about this as my daughter (like millions of kids) already has trouble breathing due to asthma. I'm perfectly cool with my teenage daughters having to, but my 7 year old ... it just feels like cruel and unusual punishment. Kids shouldn't be in schools if they are forced to wear a mask. IF it's not safe enough to be there without a mask, it is NOT safe enough to be there period. This isn't hard. As I said, either this is serious, or it is not serious. We need to stop fucking around and move forward. If that moving forward is Marshal Law for 4 weeks, so be it. If it's go out at your own risk, so be it.
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-27T14:05:30Z
Originally Posted by: earthquake 

There are 195 nations in the world. If the best we can do is point to is a handful of countries that have handled this worse than US, it doesn't look great. The USA is the richest and most powerful nation in the world, with perhaps the most advanced collection of medical research facilities on the planet. We should be leading the way, not bringing up the rear.

In any case, we have examples of countries that have handled it very well. Korea, Japan, Singapore and other nations that have public health care systems and built-up effective pandemic containment programs post SARS are notable. They took it seriously from day one, instituted social distancing, and wear masks en masse - many countries where masks are not stigmatized have been able to control the spread of infection better than us.

Death rates (per million):
USA: 440
Wisconsin: 155
Japan: 8
Korea: 6
Singapore: 5

Surely statistical oddities like incorrectly attributed deaths and variance in reporting methodology wouldn't account for differences in the range of many orders of magnitude? Let's say these countries are under-reporting by a factor of 10 (unrealistic), we would still be performing terribly in comparison.



You're saying Korea, Japan and Singapore have handled things well? I think you could combine their populations and it would still be substantially less than the population in the USA. Probably easier to control a group of 126 million vs 328 million.

USA (328 million)
Japan (126.5 million)
Korea (51.64 million)
Wisconsin (5.8 million)
Singapore (5.6 million)


You see a trend with the States in the US. What's the trend?
https://www.cdc.gov/coro...updates/cases-in-us.html 
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Zero2Cool
2020-07-27T14:06:23Z
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Mucky Tundra (9-Feb) : and it just looked a little funky to anyone since they took away stops from the Chiefs D and Tampa scored TDs off the drives
Mucky Tundra (9-Feb) : Zero, the penalties were a little iffy and compared to what was going on when GB played Tampa absolutely nothing. Throw in the timing of them (bailed Tampa out of INT and a failed 3rd down conversion)
Zero2Cool (8-Feb) : The #Cardinals and long-time Pro Bowl CB Patrick Peterson are parting ways, per @MattVerderame
Zero2Cool (8-Feb) : It was funny reading comments. Brady is amazing! I look at scoreboard, 9 points? Brady did that? lol
Zero2Cool (8-Feb) : I remembered it and started following in Twitter. Seems the officials were thinking the game was bout them
yooperfan (8-Feb) : Just another fixed game by the NFL. The officiating decided another game. I’m sick of it.🤬
Cheesey (8-Feb) : Mahomes has to run for his life all game.
Mucky Tundra (8-Feb) : Zero, I was watching it closely until the Fournette TD in the 3rd. Was hoping Mahomes would put on a show
Cheesey (8-Feb) : I didn’t care who won. Besides, I don’t have “Hulu”! 😂
packerfanoutwest (8-Feb) : Fuck Brady and the refs
Zero2Cool (8-Feb) : No shame in it. Just have no interest in it. Deadliest Decade 90s got me all day.
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